Publications

President Donald Trump completed his first diplomatic visit of his second term in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, signaling that these countries hold personal significance for him—not just for the United States. The outcomes of the visit provided the leaders of these states with an opportunity to showcase a broad convergence of interests, particularly those that are visible. This visit, along with recent moves by the US administration in the Middle East, has contributed to a growing sense that Israel is being...

The nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States are continuing, with both sides expressing a preference for an agreement over military confrontation—even though, at this stage, it is impossible to assess whether they will succeed in bridging existing gaps or those that may arise later. For now, both parties have expressed optimism and appear to believe that there is value in deepening the talks. The meeting that was supposed to take place on May 3 will likely be held in the coming days. According to President Trump, who...

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could bring significant global changes, intensifying competition among the great powers—the United States, China, and Russia. Trump’s “America First” policy, which defined his first term in office, is expected to continue shaping his administration’s foreign policy. The administration’s guiding principle will be “ending wars, not starting them,” emphasizing agreements that advance American interests from a position of strength. This approach will primarily rely on political and economic...

In the ongoing conflict between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and following a resolution condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, Tehran announced an increase in the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at the Fordow and Natanz sites, effectively declaring its intention to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium. With the current quantities, Iran could, within a month of making a decision, begin enriching to military levels and produce enough enriched material for eight nuclear devices....

US President Joe Biden’s decision to present the “Israeli plan” for a hostage deal and a ceasefire between the IDF and Hamas appears to have been motivated by an assessment that Israel’s military campaign had run its course. Despite the administration’s view that Hamas is responsible for the delay in reaching a hostage deal, Biden clearly believed that revealing the Israeli proposal would encourage Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision—notwithstanding the bitter domestic arguments in Israel between those who support...

Joe Biden is reportedly one of only two US presidents to have given serious consideration to a defense treaty with Israel. A number of Israeli premiers have weighed a defense treaty over the years, primarily as a means of offsetting security concerns and public qualms regarding concessions in peace talks. Counterintuitively, perhaps, Israel’s defense establishment has long been opposed. This study analyzes the pros and cons of a bilateral defense treaty from both the Israeli and American perspectives and proposes ways of addressing...

Israel’s plan to launch a military offensive in Rafah is at the center of the growing disagreement between the United States and Israel. The Biden administration is pressuring Israel to avoid such an operation, stating that Israel can achieve its objectives through other means. This adds to the existing differences between the two countries, including the US demand for Israel to establish a clear post-war strategy and address the humanitarian situation in Gaza. These topics, along with a possible hostage deal in exchange for a...

The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded its quarterly meeting held on March 4–8, and once again no resolution was adopted against Iran. This is despite the IAEA report leaving no doubt that Iran is vigorously advancing its nuclear program and preventing the agency from exercising its oversight responsibilities. The United States and European countries reacted strongly to the report but refrained from demanding that the Board of Governors take practical action against Iran; however, they...

The American stance supporting Israel in the “Swords of Iron” war has been unprecedented, except perhaps in the Yom Kippur War. The United States shares the goal of destroying Hamas and creating a new security situation in the Gaza Strip and the border region. In practice, there has been an informal division of labor between the countries, with Israel targeting Hamas and the United States deterring Iran and its proxies from escalating to the point of a regional conflagration. But alongside this, the administration has set limitations...

The United States administration, while continuing to provide assistance to Israel for the military campaign in Gaza and the efforts to release the hostages, is now devoting most of its efforts to promote a plan to shape the regional architecture on the day after the war, although it is clear there is still a long road ahead. As the administration sees it, the burden of proof that the war entails a political opportunity rests on Israel. It has identified, perhaps for the first time in such clear fashion, readiness for this on the...