While global attention has been focused in recent months on Hormuz, the battle over the Arabian Peninsula’s second chokepoint, Bab al-Mandab, is rapidly escalating. The intensifying war in Yemen and the heightened Houthi threat to shipping in the Red Sea no longer constitute a separate arena, but rather another front in the regional war with Iran. Saudi Arabia finds itself in an hour of crisis and extraordinary strategic predicament: Hormuz is disrupted to the east, the East-West pipeline has been damaged, the Houthis are attacking...
The Trump administration’s announcement of “Operation Economic Outcast” marks a transition to a new phase in the campaign against Iran. After roughly six months of fighting, during which Tehran suffered severe damage, the full picture of the campaign remains incomplete: maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal, and the nuclear issue remains unresolved. In light of this, Washington is seeking to shift the center of gravity: relying less on further expansion of the military campaign and leaning...
The nuclear agreement signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia marks a turning point in American nuclear policy and carries broad implications for the regional security architecture. After years in which Washington conditioned any nuclear cooperation on forgoing fuel-cycle capabilities, it is now adopting a more flexible approach that seeks to manage proliferation risks rather than prevent them entirely. In doing so, the agreement creates a significant precedent and raises questions regarding the future of the Nuclear...
The confrontation between the United States and Iran surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has entered a more dangerous phase than before. The American move, which initially focused on targeting maritime and military infrastructure in the area of Bandar Abbas and applying concentrated pressure on Tehran, has expanded following the Iranian response against vessels, U.S. military bases, and the Gulf states. Washington seeks to combine cumulative military pressure with maintaining an open diplomatic channel; to deny Iran the ability to turn...
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran marks the end of the military campaign, but not the end of the challenge posed by the Iranian threat. The document is not a new nuclear agreement, but rather an interim framework designed to halt the fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the naval blockade, and enable negotiations on a final agreement within 60 days. Trump will be able to present the memorandum as an achievement: ending the war, stabilizing energy markets, and securing an Iranian commitment not...
The Israeli strike in Beirut following Hezbollah’s rocket fire on northern Israel, and the subsequent round of exchanges between Israel and Iran, illustrate both the complexity of the American effort to curb escalation and Israel’s challenge of separating the Lebanese arena from Iran. The Trump administration sought to advance a renewed agreement between Israel and Lebanon, strengthen the Lebanese government, restrict Hezbollah’s freedom of action, and preserve maneuver space regarding Tehran. However, it failed to prevent an...
The visit of United States President Donald Trump to Beijing took place against the backdrop of intensifying great-power competition and the war in Iran. Trump sought to present concrete diplomatic and economic achievements and to demonstrate that the United States continues to manage its competition with China from a position of initiative. For its part, Beijing aimed to stabilize relations with Washington and shape a framework that would reflect recognition of its status as an equal great power, while setting clear boundaries...
The Islamabad summit ended without a breakthrough, underscoring that the nuclear issue remains at the core of the dispute between the United States and Iran. From Washington’s perspective, Iran’s clear commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and not to retain breakout capability is a fundamental precondition for any agreement. Tehran, for its part, insists on its right to continue enriching uranium and sees the US demand as an attempt to impose political capitulation under unilateral terms. In this context, President Trump’s...
President Trump’s statements in recent days reflect an effort to convey two parallel messages: presenting the campaign against Iran as an advancing success while, at the same time, avoiding a clear definition of its end conditions. This situation illustrates the growing tension within the administration between those pushing to continue the campaign to maximize its military achievements and economic, political, and strategic constraints pushing to shorten it. From Israel’s perspective, this is an especially sensitive stage: The...
The US–Israeli military campaign against Iran presents President Trump with the challenge of achieving a rapid, easily marketable success without becoming mired in a prolonged war. The president has adopted an especially hawkish public stance and has called on the Iranian public to “seize the moment”; yet ambiguity remains regarding whether there is an organized plan for regime change and for the “day after” the war. Within the Trump administration, the tension is likely to sharpen between maintaining maximal military pressure—aimed...
Tensions between Iran and the United States, which escalated following an American military buildup several days after the outbreak of protests across Iran, are currently in a temporary lull. This pause comes amid plans to hold a meeting between the two countries on February 6 in Oman (after a last-minute crisis that put the talks at risk was likely resolved). President Trump is aware of the risk to the credibility of US deterrence should no meaningful achievement vis-à-vis Iran be attained, given the expectations created by the...
The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), released on December 4, 2025, reshapes the “America First” doctrine in ways that undermine the traditional conception of US hegemony. Rather than value-based leadership of the democratic-liberal camp, it emphasizes recognition of states’ nationalism and non-interference in their internal affairs.
