Russia

How has the Russian presence in Syria changed since the downfall of the Assad regime, and what are the implications for Israel?

The downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane has revealed the complex relations between Russia and its post-Soviet neighbors, as well as the retreat of its influence in the region in favor of new players

In recent years, Moscow has accelerated its system of partnerships with destabilizing actors around the world based on the logic of conflict with the West, which has intensified against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Many of these actors—states and terrorist organizations—operate in the Middle East and are involved in the armed conflicts with Israel in a way that makes this Russian strategy an indirect threat to Israel. Israel’s assertive actions in friction zones in the last year as part of its multi-arena war, which have impacted Russian interests and assets, and President Trump’s push for quick agreements with Russia, could restrain Russia’s provocative strategy. An analysis of the Kremlin’s considerations and interests in the region helps understand the causal relationship between the developments and the change in Russia’s conduct. Israel should understand how best to interpret Moscow’s activity, which Israeli actions contribute to restraining Russia’s relations with actors that are hostile to Israel, and how the negotiations between Moscow and Washington will affect Russia’s policies in the region.