In 2026, Israel is militarily stronger than it was in 2023. Yet despite its military achievements, as well as its economic resilience and the endurance demonstrated by the home front in the face of security threats, it finds itself at one of the lowest strategic points in its history. Israel is caught in what can be described as a “strategic limbo” — a prolonged state of stagnation in which impressive tactical military achievements, along with unprecedented military cooperation with the United States, are not translated into a...
The signing of the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon constitutes an important and positive development in relations between the two countries, reflecting their shared interest in working toward the disarmament of Hezbollah and the reduction of Iranian influence in Lebanon. At the same time, the implementation of the agreement is expected to be slow, prolonged, and fraught with challenges, and its success is not assured — primarily due to Hezbollah’s firm opposition and the weakness of the Lebanese army and state....
In light of an accelerated process of internationalization of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, Israel can no longer rely on a strategy of containment and preservation of the status quo. Instead, it must shift to an approach of “managed internationalization,” under which it takes diplomatic initiative to shape international and regional involvement, while maintaining coordination with the United States, in order to influence the security and institutional conditions of any future arrangement. Such an approach would enable Israel to...
Until now, American support for Israel has often been understood through a party lens: Democrats were becoming more critical, while Republicans remained reliably supportive. That framework is no longer sufficient. Older pro-Israel assumptions are weakening not only among Democrats, but also within parts of the Republican coalition. Views of Israel are increasingly shaped by religion, generation, nationalism, and competing ideas about America’s role in the world. Israel therefore needs a more segmented approach to American Christians...
The war in Iran and the subsequent worsening economic crisis have accelerated the ongoing erosion of the country’s middle class, which has been particularly hard hit by high inflation, the impact of sanctions, declining purchasing power, and a growing employment crisis. In recent months, Iranian scholars and commentators have warned of the downward mobility of large segments of the middle class into lower socioeconomic strata and of their increasing dependence on government assistance, undermining their ability to sustain the...
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran marks the end of the military campaign, but not the end of the challenge posed by the Iranian threat. The document is not a new nuclear agreement, but rather an interim framework designed to halt the fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the naval blockade, and enable negotiations on a final agreement within 60 days. Trump will be able to present the memorandum as an achievement: ending the war, stabilizing energy markets, and securing an Iranian commitment not...
To survive in a hostile environment, the Houthi movement has had to learn and adapt from the start. The Zaydi revivalist youth movement of the early 1990s, the guerrilla force fighting government troops in Saada in 2004, and the semi-state that now rules most of Yemen’s population are three very different organizations. The group has changed in what it is, what it does, and how it reads its own interests. These changes have been driven by domestic upheaval and by shocks to its strategic environment: the Houthi seizure of Sanaa in...
This article examines Russia’s position toward the Iranian nuclear program, as reflected in its official responses to strikes against Iran in June 2025 and March 2026, as well as during the discussions at the Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in April–May. Under the current circumstances between the United States and Iran, Russia has no need to introduce drastic changes to its policy regarding the Iranian nuclear issue and can continue to maintain the position it has formulated in...
Fatah’s eighth conference convened last month following internal struggles, criticism of the organization’s leadership, and the departure of senior activists, all of which cast doubt on the ability to hold it. Yet its outcomes indicate that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, with the help of his loyalists and institutional mechanisms, succeeded in convening a conference with a larger number of participants than in the past, conducting elections, and incorporating new and younger figures into the organization’s central...
This article examines the issue of dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities and demilitarizing the Gaza Strip by the IDF as a proactive, preemptive measure and a necessary prerequisite for implementing the “Twenty-Point Plan” for stabilizing and rehabilitating the Strip. The working assumption is that without a fundamental solution to the issue of military power in Gaza, any attempt to advance political or economic rehabilitation processes is doomed to failure. A lack of progress means the strengthening of Hamas, the rebuilding of...
The Israeli strike in Beirut following Hezbollah’s rocket fire on northern Israel, and the subsequent round of exchanges between Israel and Iran, illustrate both the complexity of the American effort to curb escalation and Israel’s challenge of separating the Lebanese arena from Iran. The Trump administration sought to advance a renewed agreement between Israel and Lebanon, strengthen the Lebanese government, restrict Hezbollah’s freedom of action, and preserve maneuver space regarding Tehran. However, it failed to prevent an...
As the war between Israel and Hezbollah drags on, mounting signs suggest that its severe impact on Lebanon’s Shiite population is beginning to erode support for the organization. This is particularly due to the heavy price being paid by the Shiite population — and Lebanon as a whole — as a result of Hezbollah’s war in service of Iranian interests. While Hezbollah still enjoys broad support within the Shiite sector, cracks in that support weigh heavily on the organization as it fights a war of survival under intense military,...
