INSS Insight

The campaign against Iran has expanded to the economic front, centering on Tehran’s attempts to harm the global energy market in order to force the United States to end the fighting. Yet an analysis of market conditions reveals a surprising picture. Although the global economy is showing resilience and can absorb rising prices in the short term, the real point of vulnerability may lie elsewhere. America’s allies in the Gulf could be forced to halt oil and gas production if storage facilities fill up. Should that be the case, the main...

Contrary to conventional expectations, the Houthis are demonstrating a notable reluctance to intervene in Tehran’s defense. While it remains plausible that the trajectory of the conflict involving Iran and subsequent geopolitical developments in the Gulf could elevate their strategic impetus to engage in hostilities, analysis suggests that – even in such an eventuality – their actions will be highly calculated. Guided by their core strategic interests, it is posited that they would exercise operational restraint to...

The US–Israeli military campaign against Iran presents President Trump with the challenge of achieving a rapid, easily marketable success without becoming mired in a prolonged war. The president has adopted an especially hawkish public stance and has called on the Iranian public to “seize the moment”; yet ambiguity remains regarding whether there is an organized plan for regime change and for the “day after” the war. Within the Trump administration, the tension is likely to sharpen between maintaining maximal military pressure—aimed...

The end of the war in Gaza in October 2025 posed a fundamental challenge to foreign influence campaigns that had operated against Israel during the fighting, including the ISNAD campaign, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. These campaigns—relying on a sense of urgency, heightened public attention, and intense emotional mobilization—were now required to adapt to a new reality in which public discourse gradually returned to political, social, and economic issues. In this context, maintaining relevance and influence...

Evidence of a shift in Saudi Arabia’s approach toward Israel and the normalization process emerges from an analysis of public opinion in the kingdom, the positions of the Saudi leadership, the intellectual discourse within it, and the diplomatic steps it has taken. This reflects a Saudi effort to shape a new agenda in which distancing from Israel serves both the leadership’s domestic legitimacy and its aspiration to consolidate regional leadership. The implication is not only that Saudi–Israeli normalization is currently off the...

Since the war that erupted on October 7, a profound crisis has unfolded in Turkish–Israeli relations. One of the main manifestations of this crisis is the legal campaign Turkey is waging against Israel. Turkey is operating in this arena to entrench a lasting narrative of Israel’s culpability while refusing to recognize its security needs vis-à-vis a murderous terrorist organization and by portraying Israel as having violated international law, an act that must be punished. The Turkish moves have implications that go beyond the damage...

In recent months, the Trump administration has intensified its campaign against proponents of political Islam. This effort has been reflected in state-level proclamations by the governors of Texas and Florida, designating the Muslim Brotherhood and the Council on American–Islamic Relations (CAIR) as “foreign terrorist organizations,” as well as in a presidential order stating that branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon should be considered “terrorist organizations.” These moves have reignited discussion in...

Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted in recent years from a close partnership to open competition over leadership, prestige, and regional influence. Behind the façade of “Gulf unity” lies a deep rift stemming from differing threat perceptions and a struggle for economic and regional primacy. The rise of Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi aspiration to lead the Arab world clash with Abu Dhabi’s activist foreign policy, which has sought to free itself from Saudi hegemony. This competition is...

US military aid to Israel has, for decades, constituted a central pillar of the strategic relationship between the two countries and a foundational component of Israel’s national security concept. Beyond its financial scope, this aid serves as an institutional, political, and symbolic anchor of the alliance between Jerusalem and Washington, embodying the United States’ commitment to preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge in a challenging regional environment. The current multiyear agreement (2019–2028), signed in 2016, sets...

The accelerated growth of high-performance computing—particularly for artificial intelligence applications—has driven a sharp increase in electric demand, water consumption for cooling, and land use in dense urban areas. These trends are placing unprecedented pressure on existing data-center infrastructure. Against this backdrop, an innovative approach has emerged in recent years: the deployment of subsea data centers, which leverage the maritime domain as an alternative infrastructure platform, with both environmental and...

Tensions between Iran and the United States, which escalated following an American military buildup several days after the outbreak of protests across Iran, are currently in a temporary lull. This pause comes amid plans to hold a meeting between the two countries on February 6 in Oman (after a last-minute crisis that put the talks at risk was likely resolved). President Trump is aware of the risk to the credibility of US deterrence should no meaningful achievement vis-à-vis Iran be attained, given the expectations created by the...

For Turkey, Iran’s stability is not merely a foreign policy issue but a core component of national security with direct implications for the Turkish economy. Sharing a long border with the Islamic Republic, Ankara views any significant upheaval in Tehran as a potential multidimensional threat. These threats range from waves of migration and disruptions in the energy and trade markets to the central concern of a governing vacuum that could strengthen Kurdish separatist actors (the PKK and its affiliates) along the shared border....