The elimination of Hassan Nasrallah marked the lowest point in Hezbollah’s history, following a series of blows inflicted by the IDF during the war with Israel and other negative developments from the organization’s perspective, mainly the collapse of the Assad regime, the disintegration of the pro-Iranian Shiite axis, and the establishment of a new Lebanese leadership opposed to Hezbollah’s path. A year later, it appears that while Hezbollah has changed its appearance, it still clings to its extremist ideology. The ceremonies...
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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
This policy paper proposes a strategy to translate the IDF’s achievements in the war against Hezbollah—along with the disintegration of the Shiite axis, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the consequences of the war between Israel and Iran—into a new security reality along the border with Lebanon, and to foster better relations with Lebanon’s new leadership.
The strategy combines ongoing military action to weaken Hezbollah and prevent its recovery with political and economic measures designed to diminish the organization while...
Hezbollah’s position has deteriorated following the war between Israel and Iran. The organization’s decision to refrain from opening an additional front against Israel—despite expectations—highlighted its weakness. The outcome of the war has further exacerbated the challenges it now faces: Iran currently lacks the attention and capabilities to support Hezbollah; the IDF continues to target its operatives and infrastructure; and Lebanon’s new leadership is taking action against the organization, particularly in hopes of disarming...
During the war between Israel and Hezbollah, the total failure of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to help prevent Hezbollah’s military entrenchment in southern Lebanon was exposed. Despite UNIFIL’s presence, Hezbollah managed to organize militarily in the area on a large scale. In light of this, the question of the usefulness of UNIFIL’s continued presence has become more pressing. The host country, Lebanon, is seeking to extend the mandate, which expires this coming August. However, voices in Israel and the United States...
Hezbollah—now a defeated force—is under growing pressure from the IDF’s ongoing military campaign to erode its capabilities and hinder its recovery; the unraveling of the Shiite axis; and, most significantly, the growing internal and external calls for the organization to disarm. Yet Hezbollah, clinging to its identity as a resistance movement, refuses to give up its status or objectives and declares it will not disarm. At the same time, it is taking steps to secure a pause in hostilities that would allow time for its recovery. Given...
The map highlights the five IDF outposts located north of the Blue Line and marks areas where ceasefire violations have been recorded. Additionally, it documents Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah attacks on Israel during the Swords of Iron War, including Operation Northern Arrows.
The map is continuously updated as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.
The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister signal the beginning of a new era in Lebanon and another painful blow to Hezbollah, following its defeat in the war against Israel and the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria. Hezbollah’s weakened position enabled the opposition forces—backed by the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia—to secure a required majority, even compelling Hezbollah to reluctantly support Aoun, while Salam was elected without Hezbollah’s endorsement....
Hezbollah’s war against Israel is taking a heavy toll on Lebanon. While it is too early to fully assess the economic damage, the consequences of the war are evident as a result of the direct physical damage along with the damage to the Lebanese economy, estimated by the World Bank at approximately $8.5 billion. This has intensified criticism of Hezbollah, from both its opponents and even some Shiite supporters in Lebanon, as Iran promises to rehabilitate the country in order to maintain its influence. At the same time, Hezbollah’s...
Against the backdrop of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Qatar appears to be taking steps to expand its influence in Lebanon. Israel’s wariness toward Qatar stems from Doha’s adversarial policy toward Israel and with its ties to Hamas. Nevertheless, Israel and Qatar’s interests may converge regarding Lebanon, particularly in preventing the country from completely falling into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah. In this context, coordination between Israel and the United States, which has close ties with Qatar, is necessary.
During the war between Israel and Hezbollah, and especially since the IDF launched its ground operation in southern Lebanon, the widespread presence of Hezbollah along the border between Israel and Lebanon has highlighted the ineffectiveness of UNIFIL. At the same time, friction between the IDF and UNIFIL is increasing, with the latter claiming its forces have been harmed. While Israel’s interest in establishing an improved security regime along the border on “the day after” is incompatible with UNIFIL’s continued presence in its...
Recently, the public discourse has been heavily focused on the possibility of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah. This article focuses on the severe damages expected in such a war to Israel’s civilian home front and its functional continuity, and consequently to the resilience of Israeli society and its ability to recover from the war. The analysis puts forward the need to carefully consider the risks posed by such a war to the civilian sphere, especially as long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues.
