A significant part of Hezbollah’s resilience rests on a global money-transfer network embedded within the Lebanese diaspora and in informal remittance systems, as well as on a wide range of illicit revenue streams developed over decades. Therefore, military strikes alone—without an international financial strategy focused on the organization’s financial network—are unlikely to significantly undermine its long-term financing capabilities or its capacity for recovery derived from them. To impair Hezbollah’s financing system, a broader...
Assuming that Operation Roaring Lion does not end in the complete defeat of Hezbollah, the issue of disarming Hezbollah will remain on the agenda at its conclusion—an interest shared by both Israel and the Lebanese state. This article proposes adopting the DDR model—Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration—and advancing an L(ebanon)DDR process as an orderly framework for disarming Hezbollah and integrating it into Lebanon, alongside repairing, rebuilding, and strengthening the Lebanese state.
This framework offers an...
Hezbollah’s decision to open an additional front against Israel after the attack on Iran was meant not only to relieve the military pressure on Iran but also to strengthen the organization’s own standing at a time when it has been weakened militarily and politically and is facing growing criticism at home and abroad. Hezbollah is now waging a war of survival, seeking to shift the balance of power with the IDF and improve its position within Lebanon. It is doing so by employing its full arsenal of missiles, rockets, and UAVs and by...
The Lebanese Army is the weak link on the path to realizing the vision of Lebanon’s new leadership, which seeks to repair and rehabilitate the state. A central aspect of implementing this vision is the collection of all weapons held by the militias, primarily Hezbollah, and their transfer to the Lebanese Army. This goal aligns with Israel’s interest in seeing Lebanon become a sovereign and functioning state, with a responsible central authority, whom Israel can address, that holds a monopoly on weapons through a strong army...
One year after the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the Lebanese arena is undergoing changes. These changes are reflected both in the internal balance of power between Lebanon’s new leadership and Hezbollah, as well as in the balance of power between the organization and the IDF, which has not relented and continues to weaken it. However, this opportunity for change is overshadowed by Hezbollah’s determination to recover and by the difficulties facing the Lebanese government, which remains weak as it attempts to compel the...
The elimination of Hassan Nasrallah marked the lowest point in Hezbollah’s history, following a series of blows inflicted by the IDF during the war with Israel and other negative developments from the organization’s perspective, mainly the collapse of the Assad regime, the disintegration of the pro-Iranian Shiite axis, and the establishment of a new Lebanese leadership opposed to Hezbollah’s path. A year later, it appears that while Hezbollah has changed its appearance, it still clings to its extremist ideology. The ceremonies...
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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
This policy paper proposes a strategy to translate the IDF’s achievements in the war against Hezbollah—along with the disintegration of the Shiite axis, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the consequences of the war between Israel and Iran—into a new security reality along the border with Lebanon, and to foster better relations with Lebanon’s new leadership.
The strategy combines ongoing military action to weaken Hezbollah and prevent its recovery with political and economic measures designed to diminish the organization while...
Hezbollah’s position has deteriorated following the war between Israel and Iran. The organization’s decision to refrain from opening an additional front against Israel—despite expectations—highlighted its weakness. The outcome of the war has further exacerbated the challenges it now faces: Iran currently lacks the attention and capabilities to support Hezbollah; the IDF continues to target its operatives and infrastructure; and Lebanon’s new leadership is taking action against the organization, particularly in hopes of disarming...
During the war between Israel and Hezbollah, the total failure of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to help prevent Hezbollah’s military entrenchment in southern Lebanon was exposed. Despite UNIFIL’s presence, Hezbollah managed to organize militarily in the area on a large scale. In light of this, the question of the usefulness of UNIFIL’s continued presence has become more pressing. The host country, Lebanon, is seeking to extend the mandate, which expires this coming August. However, voices in Israel and the United States...
Hezbollah—now a defeated force—is under growing pressure from the IDF’s ongoing military campaign to erode its capabilities and hinder its recovery; the unraveling of the Shiite axis; and, most significantly, the growing internal and external calls for the organization to disarm. Yet Hezbollah, clinging to its identity as a resistance movement, refuses to give up its status or objectives and declares it will not disarm. At the same time, it is taking steps to secure a pause in hostilities that would allow time for its recovery. Given...
The map highlights the five IDF outposts located north of the Blue Line and marks areas where ceasefire violations have been recorded. Additionally, it documents Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah attacks on Israel during the Swords of Iron War, including Operation Northern Arrows.
The map is continuously updated as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.
