Publications

Hezbollah—now a defeated force—is under growing pressure from the IDF’s ongoing military campaign to erode its capabilities and hinder its recovery; the unraveling of the Shiite axis; and, most significantly, the growing internal and external calls for the organization to disarm. Yet Hezbollah, clinging to its identity as a resistance movement, refuses to give up its status or objectives and declares it will not disarm. At the same time, it is taking steps to secure a pause in hostilities that would allow time for its recovery. Given...

The map highlights the five IDF outposts located north of the Blue Line and marks areas where ceasefire violations have been recorded. Additionally, it documents Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah attacks on Israel during the Swords of Iron War, including Operation Northern Arrows. The map is continuously updated as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.

The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister signal the beginning of a new era in Lebanon and another painful blow to Hezbollah, following its defeat in the war against Israel and the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria. Hezbollah’s weakened position enabled the opposition forces—backed by the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia—to secure a required majority, even compelling Hezbollah to reluctantly support Aoun, while Salam was elected without Hezbollah’s endorsement....

Hezbollah’s war against Israel is taking a heavy toll on Lebanon. While it is too early to fully assess the economic damage, the consequences of the war are evident as a result of the direct physical damage along with the damage to the Lebanese economy, estimated by the World Bank at approximately $8.5 billion. This has intensified criticism of Hezbollah, from both its opponents and even some Shiite supporters in Lebanon, as Iran promises to rehabilitate the country in order to maintain its influence. At the same time, Hezbollah’s...

Against the backdrop of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Qatar appears to be taking steps to expand its influence in Lebanon. Israel’s wariness toward Qatar stems from Doha’s adversarial policy toward Israel and with its ties to Hamas. Nevertheless, Israel and Qatar’s interests may converge regarding Lebanon, particularly in preventing the country from completely falling into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah. In this context, coordination between Israel and the United States, which has close ties with Qatar, is necessary.

During the war between Israel and Hezbollah, and especially since the IDF launched its ground operation in southern Lebanon, the widespread presence of Hezbollah along the border between Israel and Lebanon has highlighted the ineffectiveness of UNIFIL. At the same time, friction between the IDF and UNIFIL is increasing, with the latter claiming its forces have been harmed. While Israel’s interest in establishing an improved security regime along the border on “the day after” is incompatible with UNIFIL’s continued presence in its...

Recently, the public discourse has been heavily focused on the possibility of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah. This article focuses on the severe damages expected in such a war to Israel’s civilian home front and its functional continuity, and consequently to the resilience of Israeli society and its ability to recover from the war. The analysis puts forward the need to carefully consider the risks posed by such a war to the civilian sphere, especially as long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues.

The Swords of Iron war has highlighted the urgent need for a new security strategy for Israel’s electricity sector, given the military threats that have materialized as well as the emerging climate risks and technological advancements. Israel’s unique status as an “electricity island,” cut off from neighboring power grids, coupled with its heavy dependence on the natural gas industry, makes it especially vulnerable to threats to its energy infrastructure. All these factors require Israel to formulate a new concept for the security of...

Although Hezbollah and Iran are not yet interested in a large-scale war, Israel’s campaign against Lebanon could escalate under two main scenarios: (1) If Hezbollah continues to fight against Israel as long as the war in Gaza persists or if Iran requests that the Lebanese-based group becomes more involved in its campaign against Israel; (2) If Israel launches an extensive operation that ignores the “rules of engagement” with Hezbollah, aiming to change the security situation on the northern border and facilitate the return of the...

As part of the American-led efforts to use diplomatic means to end the fighting that has been ongoing for nearly five months between Israel and Hezbollah, the need to demarcate an agreed-upon border between Israel and Lebanon was also on the agenda. The Lebanese government is eager to include border demarcation in any ceasefire agreement and has adopted the same policy on this matter as Hezbollah, linking an end to the fighting to the cessation of Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip and presenting a hardline maximalist approach to...