The war with Iran has highlighted Pakistan’s role as an actor with growing potential for influence in the Middle East. Pakistan has sought to position itself both as a mediator between Iran and the United States and as a security guarantor for Saudi Arabia, while maintaining a delicate balance between preserving its strategic ties with Riyadh and the need to avoid a deterioration in relations with Tehran. From the perspective of some Gulf states, Pakistan has an important role to play in the regional security architecture that...
This dashboard report presents ten charts documenting the global economic effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. From surging oil, gas, and jet fuel prices, to disruptions in aluminum and fertilizer supply chains, and mounting pressure on the global food price index, the charts together point to a single vulnerability in the global economy that evolved into a catalyst for a multidimensional crisis. The charts will be updated weekly and will continue tracking effects likely to persist well after the fighting subsides, as...
“Operation Roaring Lion,” the war against Iran and its proxies, has not yet reached its conclusion. Although the final outcome remains unclear and the current situation may soon shift, the campaign’s distinctive characteristics allow for an interim assessment. This is the most extensive war fought in the Middle East since the Second Gulf War, and the first in which Israel is fighting as an active partner in a coalition with the United States. While its global implications have yet to fully emerge, it is already clear that...
While Pakistan led mediation efforts aimed at securing a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Egypt also played an active, albeit secondary, role in the process. Faced with concerns over the war’s negative impact on its economic stability and on the regional balance of power, Egypt participated in mediation efforts within a new quadrilateral coordination mechanism alongside Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Its aim was to consolidate this framework into an Arab-Islamic Quartet capable of leveraging the member states’...
More than two months after the outbreak of Operation “Roaring Lion,” the Islamic Republic stands with significant vulnerabilities and a new leadership, yet it also has certain achievements to its credit. These include surviving a joint American-Israeli attack and exploiting levers of pressure created during the fighting, including attacks against the Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While it is premature to assess the full implications of the war, the conclusion of which remains uncertain, prominent...
The war in Iran confronts Europe and its leaders with difficult dilemmas; not only does it harm the interests of countries on the continent in the Middle East, but it also touches on core issues in contemporary European foreign policy. European states are thus trying to formulate a position that bridges recognition of the Iranian threat, tensions with the Trump administration, reservations about Israel’s strategy, commitment to Gulf security, adherence to international law, and concern over the war’s consequences. So far, however,...
The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel has not, so far, improved the strategic position of the Gulf states; in fact, it may have even worsened it. Despite the damage Iran has sustained, the regime has demonstrated resilience while preserving key levers of pressure—namely, the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and to strike “bypass” pipelines and land-based critical infrastructure in the Gulf states. At the same time, in the eyes of the Gulf states, the war has sharpened the limitations of the US...
Assuming that Operation Roaring Lion does not end in the complete defeat of Hezbollah, the issue of disarming Hezbollah will remain on the agenda at its conclusion—an interest shared by both Israel and the Lebanese state. This article proposes adopting the DDR model—Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration—and advancing an L(ebanon)DDR process as an orderly framework for disarming Hezbollah and integrating it into Lebanon, alongside repairing, rebuilding, and strengthening the Lebanese state.
This framework offers an...
This article examines antisemitic narratives prominent among extremists on both the right and the left in the United States during the US–Israeli military operation in Iran (“Roaring Lion” / “Epic Fury”). These narratives, which are intertwined with the legitimate domestic American debate over the necessity and objectives of the war, accuse Israel of dragging the United States into a war that contradicts American national interests while illegitimately controlling the government. The article concludes with a recommendation that...
The Islamabad summit ended without a breakthrough, underscoring that the nuclear issue remains at the core of the dispute between the United States and Iran. From Washington’s perspective, Iran’s clear commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and not to retain breakout capability is a fundamental precondition for any agreement. Tehran, for its part, insists on its right to continue enriching uranium and sees the US demand as an attempt to impose political capitulation under unilateral terms. In this context, President Trump’s...
The Data Analytics Center at the Institute for National Security Studies presents a situation report regarding the military campaign of the U.S. and Israel against Iran.The report includes a dedicated dashboard featuring selected data, accompanied by an interactive map depicting the situation on the ground.
Summary of the Results
The Israeli public’s assessment of the likely damage to Iran as a result of the campaign has continued to decline. While in the first days of the campaign, 69% of respondents estimated that the regime would be significantly harmed, only 43.5% think so today. A similar decline is evident regarding the expected damage to Iran’s nuclear project. At the start of the campaign, 62.5% believed it would be significantly harmed compared to 48% today. The same applies to the ballistic missile array: The percentage of...
