Publications

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran’s demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the...

The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran over a return to the nuclear agreement ended with the text of the deal almost complete. Conclusion of the deal is awaiting political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand, which has met with American opposition, to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the US State Department’s list of foreign terror organizations (FTO). The issue is largely symbolic, since the move would have no impact on the sanctions imposed on the Revolutionary Guards. While...

Against the background of the nuclear talks in Vienna, the question arises whether China and Russia can persuade Iran to reach a new deal with the powers. This article reviews how China and Russia percieve their relations with Iran and what their interests are in the negotiations, and assesses whether the talks could achieve agreement over the future of the Iranian nuclear program.

In 2021 Iran saw a change of president and government; rounds of talks that did not produce a return to the nuclear deal; an intensified confrontation with the IAEA; strengthened relations with China and Russia; and initial talks to improve relations with the Gulf states. At the same time, Iran experienced increasing difficulties in Iraq and Lebanon; and continued activities attributed to Israel against the nuclear program and against the transfer of weapons to Syria and Hezbollah, as well as at sea and in the cyber realm. In the...

The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy,...

The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated...

The Tenth Review Conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to be held on January 4-28, 2022, will mark 50 years since the Treaty entered into force and 25 years since its extension for an unlimited period. In spite of the Treaty’s achievements, the challenges to the implementation of its main objectives and the effectiveness of the arms control regime and nonproliferation efforts following the appearance of new technologies that threaten strategic stability raise question marks regarding the ability of the parties to the...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The talks on the possibility of returning to the nuclear deal (JCPOA) are supposed to be renewed on November 29. In the background of the publication of the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency detailing violations by Iran – both of the nuclear deal and of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. At this stage, it is impossible to assess whether the Iranians have decided to return to the talks with the intent of reaching an agreement, or alternatively of proving that Washington is responsible for failing...

At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...

Iran is not in a hurry to return to the nuclear talks with the United States and will not return to negotiations before President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes office. In the meantime, Tehran is accumulating important knowledge and experience for a decision to progress toward nuclear weapons, and in the international arena there is increasing doubt regarding the chance of renewing the nuclear deal. Under the auspices of the dialogue underway in Vienna, Iran is progressing on uranium enrichment to high levels, uranium metal production,...