Afghanistan

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

Much criticism was sounded regarding the US withdrawal from the war-torn state of Afghanistan in August 2021. Some argued that it would be followed by an increase in global terror, and some contended that the status of the United States, the leader of the free world, would be damaged. One year later, it is clear these concerns have not materialized, and the advantages in the withdrawal outweigh the disadvantages

The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy, against the backdrop of the mid-term elections and deep political polarization in the United States. All these issues underline the need to update Israel's policy regarding the international arena, especially: deepening the coordination with the US administration and key actors in the international community, and enlisting their support for advancing Israel's objectives. Chief among them are preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and maximizing Israel's comparative advantages, particularly in the fields of science and technology, to advance initiatives to help stabilize the Middle East and cope with the global climate crisis.

The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated its involvement in the wars in Yemen and Libya, and improved its relations with Iran, Syria, and Turkey; after three years of boycott, the dispute between Qatar on one side and the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Egypt on the other has ended; Jordan is engaged in dialogue with Iran and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; and Turkey has shown interest in improving its relations with the UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Furthermore, the UAE and Bahrain cultivated their public ties with Israel in the framework of the Abraham Accords, while Egypt seemed intent on strengthening its economic relations with Israel, and is working with Jordan to solve the energy crisis in Lebanon. Israel should give thorough consideration to the significance of the new regional dynamics, and take advantage of the emerging regional openness to expand relations that began in the framework of the Abraham Accords and forge relations with additional countries.

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract from the urgency of security threats, which remain significant. In the face of this uncertainty, Israel will need to prioritize attention to the internal crisis; adjust itself to the competition between the great powers, which is affected by the pandemic; adapt to the Biden administration and coordinate with it on Iran and other issues; expand alliances and normalization agreements with additional countries in the region; and be ready for military escalation in the north and in the Gaza Strip arena, which could occur even though all of the actors involved prefer to avoid it.

In the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, the United States assumed the leading role in the war against terror by attacking al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime, which afforded protection to al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. The expanded commitment by the US and its allies to rebuild Afghanistan, combined with the renewed global terrorist threat, prolonged the war. In the Doha Agreement, signed in February 2020, the US undertook to withdraw its forces in exchange for a promise by the Taliban that it would not help terrorist organizations operate in Afghanistan. On August 30, 2021, following two decades of a global war on terrorism, US forces withdrew from Afghanistan. However, the Taliban’s takeover, combined with the terrorist activity by ISIS Khorasan, raises questions about Afghanistan's future. The Taliban’s achievements are liable to be shared by extremist and jihad movements. This article reviews the significance of the US withdrawal, while examining US foreign policy in Afghanistan under four American presidents.