Publications

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed...

The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy,...

The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The withdrawal from Afghanistan by the United States 20 years after it attacked the Taliban regime and al-Qaeda in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks closes a historic circle. Al-Qaeda’s attack against the American homeland and its iconic symbols challenged the United States, and led it to invade Afghanistan and drive the Taliban out of the country into Pakistan, and also hurt al-Qaeda severely. The United States later took advantage of the prevailing international atmosphere to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein...

The American withdrawal from Afghanistan presents Iran with a new and complex situation. On the one hand, the withdrawal is perceived as a positive development, because Iran no longer has United States forces on its eastern and western borders, and it is clear that Tehran hopes that the US will subsequently withdraw its forces from Iraq. On the other hand, Iran and Afghanistan share a 900 kilometer-long border, and a lack of governance in Afghanistan will have immediate implications for Iran’s economy and security. Iran is...

The bitter taste left by the chaotic withdrawal of the forces of the United States and its allies from Afghanistan, the collapse of the Afghan government and army, and the seizure of power by the Taliban are evidence of the failure of US nation building efforts along the lines of a Western democracy. Ending the campaign in Afghanistan immediately after achieving its first objective, without trying to reshape the country, would have spared the United States the embarrassment heightened by the complications of the withdrawal and a...

The impending United States withdrawal from Afghanistan fulfills the goals of the three administrations prior to the Biden administration to end the US role as liberator, policeman, and funder of this divided and riven country, which it entered following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The American offensive in Afghanistan achieved its initial objectives, attacking al-Qaeda and toppling the Taliban regime, but subsequently the US failed to prevent the Taliban’s regaining power. The United States has vowed to respond...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...