The JCPOA

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

While the nuclear talks in Vienna have reached a stalemate and the chances of reaching an agreement appear to dwindle, Iran continues to accelerate its nuclear program. According to one report, within one month it would be able to enrich enough uranium to weapons-grade level that would be sufficient for three bombs. In this complex situation, Israel must – and in full cooperation with the United States – immediately formulate a new strategy vis-à-vis Iran

The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?

Russia and China are participating in the nuclear talks in Vienna. The deliberations are complex and challenging, particularly since the interests and worldviews of Moscow and Beijing diverge significantly from those of the United States and the European parties. What are Russia and China trying to achieve from the talks – and are they even eager for the negotiations to succeed?

In 2021 Iran saw a change of president and government; rounds of talks that did not produce a return to the nuclear deal; an intensified confrontation with the IAEA; strengthened relations with China and Russia; and initial talks to improve relations with the Gulf states. At the same time, Iran experienced increasing difficulties in Iraq and Lebanon; and continued activities attributed to Israel against the nuclear program and against the transfer of weapons to Syria and Hezbollah, as well as at sea and in the cyber realm. In the coming year Iran could face a strategic decision – a return to the nuclear deal while arresting progress on the program, or alternatively, tension and conflict with some in the international arena and progress toward becoming a "nuclear threshold state." Facing Iran’s nuclear program, Israel is in a strategic quandary: the various possible scenarios, whether a partial agreement or continued foot-dragging or a breakdown in the negotiations, are negative for Israel. This backdrop highlights the need to maintain an intimate dialogue with the United States administration and formulate a comprehensive strategy for the coming years that includes a credible military threat and multi-faceted pressure on Iran; elimination of the  advanced components of the nuclear program, if necessary; an extensive campaign between wars to curb Iran's regional entrenchment, and not only in the Syrian realm; and use of the Abraham Accords to create a regional and international alliance to restrain Iran and strengthen deterrence against it. Conversely, a public conflict with Washington would weaken Israel and play into Iran's hands: the statements about preparing a military option would not appear credible, might erode deterrence, and could push Washington to pursue an even worse agreement. From Israel's perspective, the following are preferable: a return to the agreement that buys Israel time to prepare an alternative; maintained freedom of operation in the regional arena; continued obstruction of aspects of the nuclear program; and coordination with the United States on future developments.

The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy, against the backdrop of the mid-term elections and deep political polarization in the United States. All these issues underline the need to update Israel's policy regarding the international arena, especially: deepening the coordination with the US administration and key actors in the international community, and enlisting their support for advancing Israel's objectives. Chief among them are preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and maximizing Israel's comparative advantages, particularly in the fields of science and technology, to advance initiatives to help stabilize the Middle East and cope with the global climate crisis.