Iran: Nuclear and Military Programs

Iran is approaching a crossroads regarding the continuation of the fighting against Israel: What dilemmas is it facing—and what should Israel be preparing for?

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion ("Am KeLavi") targeting Iran's missile and nuclear program. This interactive map highlights the locations of direct attacks on Iranian territory attributed to Israel, along with Iran's key military and nuclear facilities. The map is updated regularly and as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.

An up-to-date overview of the nuclear talks with Iran, in the context of the serious report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency

The ongoing campaign in Gaza and its spread to other fronts, including the direct confrontation in April 2024 between Iran and Israel, could bring about significant changes in the security conception of the Islamic Republic. These changes could affect the features of its policy and its strategic perceptions, including how it manages its regional network of proxies and its nuclear doctrine. Although Iran’s conduct since the start of the war does not currently indicate any strategic U-turns by the Iranian leadership, it is clear that due to internal, regional and international developments—along with the lessons from the ongoing regional war—Tehran increasingly estimates that the strategic balance is tipping in its favor. This perception could lead to significant changes in its policy, specifically a greater willingness to take risks and adopt a more aggressive approach, including towards Israel. This trend obliges Israel to prepare for the new Iranian strategy and for more intense conflict with Iran and the Shiite axis it leads.