The United States is determined to advance the implementation of President Donald Trump’s framework to end the war and reshape the Gaza Strip without Hamas, and with the area demilitarized of military and terrorist capabilities. The gap between the strategic objective and the challenges of implementation indicates that the success of the framework will require coercive and sustained American involvement, close coordination with Israel, and persuasive US efforts to convince moderate Arab states to take an active role in stabilizing,...
This survey examines social and political issues and attitudes among the Palestinian public in the West Bank, against the backdrop of the events of October 7, 2023, and the Swords of Iron War. It is a unique survey focusing on the West Bank during wartime and provides an up-to-date snapshot of Palestinian public perceptions. The report presents an initial analysis of public opinion and highlights the challenges and opportunities facing Israelis and Palestinians.
Click here to download the full survey data | For the survey results in...
In recent weeks, voices in the Israeli political arena, particularly from the settler lobby beyond the Green Line, have intensified their call for annexing territories in Judea and Samaria, as well as in the Gaza Strip—namely, the application of Israeli sovereignty to these areas—in response to the growing wave of declarations by many states to recognize a Palestinian state. Annexation, which is by no means a new phenomenon, is intended to block any path toward Israeli disengagement from the West Bank, either from it or within it,...
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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
As the war in the Gaza Strip continues, Israel’s international legitimacy is eroding, its global standing is deteriorating, the IDF is being worn down, and divisions within Israeli society are widening. Escaping this deadlock requires a paradigmatic shift that moves beyond the narrow thinking of only two options (as defined by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu): either a full occupation of the Strip or capitulation to Hamas, which would remain in power, in exchange for the release of the hostages. However, there is another option—one...
The consequences of the tsunami of international recognition of a Palestinian state largely depend on the Israeli government’s response. Most of the negative consequences of this increasing wave already exist, and broad international recognition could intensify them. Should the Israeli government choose a harsh retaliatory path—such as occupying the Gaza Strip, promoting the idea of “voluntary emigration” of Gazan residents, or applying Israeli sovereignty over territories in Judea and Samaria and Gaza’s security perimeter—it would...
In light of the dramatic shift in the balance of power in the region following the confrontation between Israel and Iran—the restoration of Israeli deterrence; the open motivation of US President Donald Trump to bring an end to the war; the weakening of the resistance axis and its non-state actors; Hamas’s weakened and isolated state, dependent on the mercy of mediator states; the willingness of Arab states to engage and assist in stabilizing Gaza without Hamas rule—a window of opportunity has emerged to close the circle of war that...
The Israeli government has authorized the IDF to finalize preparations for “Gideon’s Chariots”—a plan to conquer the Gaza Strip and defeat Hamas, concentrate the population of the Strip in its southern region, and encourage emigration from it. The execution of this plan would come at a heavy cost: the killing of hostages and the loss of information regarding their whereabouts; additional casualties within the IDF; a decreasing likelihood of achieving normalization with Saudi Arabia; a deepening of internal divisions in Israel due to...
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a simulation to examine the possible implications of a situation in which Israel, Hamas, the United States, and other actors in the Middle East find themselves at a decision-making crossroads due to a disagreement over the second phase of the hostage release framework.
The simulation illustrated the strategic complexity of the situation in the Gaza Strip, the negotiations surrounding the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and the path toward ending the war. The...
Although the concept of conflict management led to the events of October 7, Israel is still entrenched in the approach of “indefinite conflict management.” Its conduct results in control over all dimensions and aspects of the Palestinian population in the West Bank (and possibly also in the Gaza Strip), which in practice would constitute a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the sea.
Since the “two states for two peoples” framework, which includes a fully sovereign Palestinian state, is not feasible in the...
Although the concept of conflict management led to the events of October 7, Israel is still entrenched in the approach of “indefinite conflict management.” Its conduct results in control over all dimensions and aspects of the Palestinian population in the West Bank (and possibly also in the Gaza Strip), which in practice would constitute a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the sea.
Since the “two states for two peoples” framework, which includes a fully sovereign Palestinian state, is not feasible in the...
Israel did not achieve its primary war objectives against Hamas—namely, the complete dismantling of its military and governmental capabilities. Despite suffering significant losses that outweigh its achievements, Hamas has managed to survive. Therefore, at this stage, Israel should focus on two key efforts: finalizing the framework for the return of the hostages—an imperative rooted in Jewish tradition and its moral significance in Israeli society; and leveraging the notion of expelling Gaza’s residents, as proposed by US President...
