Publications

The Israeli government has authorized the IDF to finalize preparations for “Gideon’s Chariots”—a plan to conquer the Gaza Strip and defeat Hamas, concentrate the population of the Strip in its southern region, and encourage emigration from it. The execution of this plan would come at a heavy cost: the killing of hostages and the loss of information regarding their whereabouts; additional casualties within the IDF; a decreasing likelihood of achieving normalization with Saudi Arabia; a deepening of internal divisions in Israel due to...

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a simulation to examine the possible implications of a situation in which Israel, Hamas, the United States, and other actors in the Middle East find themselves at a decision-making crossroads due to a disagreement over the second phase of the hostage release framework. The simulation illustrated the strategic complexity of the situation in the Gaza Strip, the negotiations surrounding the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and the path toward ending the war. The...

Although the concept of conflict management led to the events of October 7, Israel is still entrenched in the approach of “indefinite conflict management.” Its conduct results in control over all dimensions and aspects of the Palestinian population in the West Bank (and possibly also in the Gaza Strip), which in practice would constitute a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the sea. Since the “two states for two peoples” framework, which includes a fully sovereign Palestinian state, is not feasible in the...

Although the concept of conflict management led to the events of October 7, Israel is still entrenched in the approach of “indefinite conflict management.” Its conduct results in control over all dimensions and aspects of the Palestinian population in the West Bank (and possibly also in the Gaza Strip), which in practice would constitute a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the sea. Since the “two states for two peoples” framework, which includes a fully sovereign Palestinian state, is not feasible in the...

Israel did not achieve its primary war objectives against Hamas—namely, the complete dismantling of its military and governmental capabilities. Despite suffering significant losses that outweigh its achievements, Hamas has managed to survive. Therefore, at this stage, Israel should focus on two key efforts: finalizing the framework for the return of the hostages—an imperative rooted in Jewish tradition and its moral significance in Israeli society; and leveraging the notion of expelling Gaza’s residents, as proposed by US President...

The return of Trump to the White House has reignited discussions about normalization with Saudi Arabia and the establishment of a new regional order in the Middle East. A flash poll[1] conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies in early January examined these issues among the Israeli public. According to the survey data, the majority of Israelis—approximately 70%—supported a deal to release the hostages and implement a ceasefire about two weeks before the actual agreement came into effect. Additionally, most Israelis...

Israel has utilized its military action in the Gaza Strip and has successfully dismantled the military arm of Hamas. However, it has not achieved the release of the hostages, and it has not destroyed—or at least neutralized—Hamas’s control over Gaza. In response, several generals in the IDF reserves recently proposed a plan for taking control of northern Gaza, evacuating the civilian population, and laying siege to the area (the “Generals’ Plan”). While the plan contributes to the ongoing debate about the future control of Gaza, it...

As we mark one year since the war that began on October 7, 2023, it has become evident that Israel’s leadership sees only perpetual war on the horizon. This ongoing conflict benefits Israel’s enemies and aligns with Iran’s strategy of promoting a prolonged, multi-front war of attrition against Israel until its eventual collapse. So far, Israel has relied primarily on military and security measures without incorporating political strategies that could turn military successes into meaningful strategic change. Therefore, Israel’s...

Arab states can help advance a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, an agreement for the release of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas, and an end to the war by adopting a resolute approach to Hamas. This approach, involving increased pressure, isolation, and delegitimization, should aim to undermine Hamas’s image and standing among the Arab public opinion. The proposed measures include media campaigns and public denunciations, legal sanctions, limitations on activity, and the promotion of an alternative religious discourse. These...

The Institute for National Security Studies conducted a simulation to examine an American–Arab framework for ending the war in Gaza, normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and forming a regional security-economic coalition. In the simulation, Hamas rejected the framework as long as it is capable of fighting and no alternative mechanism for governing Gaza is established. Israel responded positively to the framework despite the price required, such as advancing a political process toward a two-state-for-two-peoples...