The escalation in multiple arenas over the course of Passover demonstrated the convergence of the Palestinian resistance axis, which relies on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with the Iran-Hezbollah axis. The timing of the escalation is also directly connected to the internal crisis in Israel, and reflects increased temerity by Israel’s enemies and their attempt to test whether its resilience has narrowed to the extent that they have an opportunity to change the deterrence equation. In light of the confluence of these elements,...
The internal crisis and the widespread protests in Israel, together with the escalation of Palestinian terror, reinforce Nasrallah’s perception that Israel’s internal weakness is overwhelming, and persuade him of Hezbollah’s ability to deter and confront Israel in the event of a military conflict. Invoking his previous spider web metaphor regarding Israeli society, he declares that Israel is on the brink of a civil war and that the state is approaching its end. This perception also underlay the dispute with Israel over the agreement...
Current Situation – Economic crisis and continued Iranian entrenchment in Syria · Hezbollah maintains military buildup · Lack of governance and economic collapse in Lebanon | Current Israeli Strategy – Campaign between wars in Syria and mutual deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah · Non-intervention in Syria or Lebanon on the political level | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Hezbollah’s ongoing buildup and Nasrallah’s false sense of confidence are escalation catalysts · No Israeli strategy vis-à-vis the Lebanese state ·...
Against the background of unprecedented economic crises, a thriving industry of drug production and smuggling has developed in Syria and Lebanon. Syria has become a narco-state under the auspices of the regime, for which drug revenues are a principal source of income; revenues are also important for elements in Lebanon, chief among them Hezbollah. The main drug traded is Captagon, an addictive member of the amphetamine family – also known as “Captain Courage,” “poor man’s cocaine,” and “the jihad drug,” due to its wide use by...
Michel Aoun ended his term as Lebanon’s President before any replacement was selected. Once again, this led to a governmental vacuum, which is more serious now than in the past because the present government is a transitional government. The current composition of Parliament, which is responsible for choosing the president, and the internal disputes among its members make it difficult to agree on and select a candidate. Hezbollah is trying to promote Suleiman Frangieh as a candidate on its behalf and at the same time obstruct the...
Over the last few months Hezbollah has waged an intensive cognitive campaign involving kinetic, diplomatic, and economic tools over the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which would allow both countries, and not just Israel, to produce gas. With the announcement that an agreement was reached, Nasrallah and the leaders of Hezbollah declared they had achieved victory in this campaign against Israel. It is difficult to decide whose strategic achievements were greater in the current battle over the maritime border and...
A review of the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon reveals an agreement that both reflects a compromise between the two parties and creates a win-win situation. Its achievement is a milestone in the history of the relations between the two states and serves their respective economic, security, and strategic interests. For Israel, in any case, the advantages clearly outweigh the disadvantages, and it is scheduled to be signed on October 27, 2022, after its approval by the Israeli government.
Israel’s current mode of operation against the escalation of attacks in the West Bank provides fertile ground for the intensification of the Palestinian ethos of resistance. From the perspective of the armed Palestinian operatives, the cost of the violent friction with IDF forces is not overly high. Symbols of national struggle are born each day and the sense of capability and expectations of the armed struggle are intensifying in the hearts and collective consciousness of the younger generation and provide motivation to join...
The threat of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has recently figured in the headlines, following UAVs launched by Hezbollah in July 2022 aimed at the Israel natural gas platform in the Karish field, reports of a Hamas project to develop UAVs, a UAV attack against the American al-Tanf base in Syria, and reports that Russia has purchased Iranian UAVs. Such an arsenal in hostile hands constitutes a mounting threat to Israel. Assuming that UAVs, especially offensive ones, will join any high-trajectory fire against Israel, new thinking...
The launch of UAVs by Hezbollah toward the Karish gas field was intended to convey a twofold message – to Israel and to the Lebanese – against the backdrop of Israel’s determination to continue production from this field and the renewed diplomatic effort initiated by Lebanon to resolve the maritime border dispute between the countries. Public opposition to Hezbollah’s action by senior Lebanese officials and the compromise proposal that Lebanon put forward indicate that unlike Hezbollah, Lebanon is eager to reach a compromise with...
A campaign is underway between Israel and Hezbollah over air control in the skies of Lebanon and northern Israel, which the organization expanded to Israel’s exclusive economic zone when it launched three unmanned aerial vehicles toward the Israeli drilling rig in the Karish gas field. Israel should consider leveraging the current struggle in the aerial dimension and respond to Hezbollah’s provocation by striking the Iranian air defense systems in Lebanon that were supplied to the organization. This would signal to the...
