After three years of being ruled by a coalition of pro-Iranian Shiite parties and militias, Iraq has reshuffled its political cards once again. The recent parliamentary elections gave incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani leadership of the largest bloc, creating a new challenge for the pro-Iranian governing coalition. Although al-Sudani is seeking another term, some coalition members oppose this.
At the same time, an internal confrontation has emerged within the regime’s top echelon between the core leadership of the...
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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
Since early November 2023, as part of the military response to the Swords of Iron war by the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance,” Shiite militias in Iraq have been launching missiles and UAVs targeted at Israel. These attacks, which have proliferated in recent months, reflect a shift in the patterns of the militias’ terrorist activity by the militias, which for years mainly attacked American forces in Iraq and Syria. Given this development, it is crucial for Israel and the United States to coordinate their response to this common...
In the months since its establishment, the new government of Iraq, which relies heavily on the support of the pro-Iranian bloc in parliament, has sought a foreign policy that balances between Iran and the United States. In addition, the government, headed by Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, hopes to improve relations with Iraq’s Arab neighbors, as well as with Turkey. This diplomatic effort, which reflects the government’s desire to bring some stability to Iraq and to resolve some of the country’s most basic problems in the...
After a year of political upheaval marked by internal conflict among the Shiites in Iraq, the success of the pro-Iranian Shiite camp in forming a government without the camp’s main rival, Muqtada Sadr, is a source of satisfaction to pro-Iranian parties and militias in Iraq, as well as the Iranian regime. However, just as the road to the formation of the government was riddled with hurdles and political and economic problems that have not yet been resolved, the reality facing the new government is challenging, and has the potential...
The rapprochement between the Gulf states and Iraq is of economic and geostrategic importance. It allows Iraq to attract necessary investments and balance the influence of Iran, and through their involvement in Iraq, the Gulf states seek to improve their security and influence in the region. However, Iraq’s political impasse following the 2021 elections, along with the foreign involvement in its affairs, makes it difficult for it to move closer to the Arab world and function as a bridge between the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf....
The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated...
The parliamentary elections in Iraq this past October were essentially decided in advance, when Iraqis took to the streets in opposition to the local Shiite militias and the corrupt ruling class that has failed to tackle economic problems. Iran received a clear message that anyone who tries to shape the agenda in Iraq will encounter considerable problems. Thus the big question remains: given the difficulties of forming a government of “the winners of the neglect” under Shiite leader Muqtada a-Sadr, will Iran be able to “impose” a...
Initial steps taken by the new Prime Minister of Iraq, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, indicate that he intends to restrain the elements that weaken and destabilize the country, among them the militias supported by Iran. These measures join other developments challenging the active presence of Iran and its proxies in Iraq: from demonstrations that refuse to die out, and have instead escalated following their violent suppression, to the killing of Soleimani, to Iran’s inability to persuade the political factions in the Iraqi parliament to...
The study of security aspects in the discipline of international relations has grown immensely since the beginning of the development of this academic field, and especially following the end of the Cold War. This article examines the factors that led to its expansion since the 1990s. The key assertion is that with the culmination of the Cold War, the rapid changes within the international arena provided scholars of international relations with new raw material and with research questions that undermined the realist approach, which...
The severe economic crisis and deplorable conditions in the Gaza Strip, which worsened over the past year with the significant reduction in the supply of electricity, have spurred Hamas’s leadership to turn to several regional states for help, particularly Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. Hamas’s reliance on diplomatic contact with these states coincides with a lengthy period of military restraint, whereby the organization does not fire at Israel and imposes a state of security calm on the organizations that heed its authority. It seems...
