The brutal suppression of the protest wave in Iran has led to a radical shift within the reformist camp toward the regime. Senior reformist figures, who in the past adhered to a cautious and restrained discourse and affirmed their commitment to the Islamic Republic’s core principles, have in recent days expressed positions that challenge the very political conception underpinning the current regime. This shift follows years in which reformists emphasized the necessity of evolutionary change over revolutionary transformation. Together...
The foundations of the Islamic Republic have, since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, been anchored in the concept of the rule of the jurist (velayat-e faqih), shaped in the spirit of the vision of the revolution’s architect, Ruhollah Khomeini. His death in 1989 necessitated a clear deviation from this principle since none of his loyal disciples possessed sufficiently high religious standing to succeed him. The appointment of Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader—made possible by an amendment to the Iranian constitution—heralded the...
The 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025 marked the sharpest escalation to date in the ongoing confrontation between the two states. Despite its relatively short duration, the war had a destabilizing effect on the Islamic Republic due to the success of Israel’s opening strike, the decision of the United States to join the campaign, and the damage sustained by Iran’s critical strategic systems—notably its nuclear program and long-range missile arsenal. Since the end of the war, Iran has engaged in an ongoing process of...
The commemoration of Western holidays and pre-Islamic traditions in Iran, such as Halloween and Cyrus the Great Day, has recently sparked a public debate among conservative circles, who see these practices as a threat to the values of the Islamic Revolution and to religious faith, and those who believe that they reflect processes of change among the younger generation that must be accepted. As this debate unfolds, the authorities in Tehran are attempting to capitalize on Iranian nationalism, which swelled during Iran’s 12-day war...
Even after the conclusion of the war between Israel and Iran, the Islamic Republic continues to grapple with significant domestic challenges, namely a deepening economic crisis, ecological problems, shortages of water and electricity, and a widening gap between the regime and the public, especially the younger generation. About three months after the 12-day war, it does not appear that the conflict undermined the foundations of the Iranian regime. On the contrary, Israel’s strikes had, to some extent, the opposite effect, provoking...
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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
The policy of Moscow and Beijing, which consisted of fairly mild condemnations of the Israeli and US strikes in Iran, sparked criticism and disappointment in Tehran. It also reinforced the Iranian assessment that its reliance on Russia and China remains limited, particularly in the event of a military confrontation with Israel and the United States. Nevertheless, it is clear that for now, Iran has no viable alternative to continuing its political, economic, and security partnership (as limited as it may be) with Russia and China,...
In early August, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) announced the establishment of the “Defense Council,” which will operate under Iran’s president and will be composed of the heads of the three branches of government, representatives of the supreme leader, and senior military officials. Just as this was announced, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei appointed Ali Larijani as secretary of the SNSC and as his representative to this Council. These organizational changes underscore Tehran’s ongoing effort to draw lessons and...
Israel did not make regime change a declared objective in its recent war with Iran; however, certain Israeli actions were clearly aimed at weakening the foundations of the Islamic Republic and encouraging the Iranian public to reignite their popular protest movement. As the dust settles, not only is there no evidence that Israel’s actions advanced this goal, but it seems that they may even have had the opposite effect (at least for the time being). Currently, several main scenarios could unfold in Iran’s domestic arena: the...
The war between Israel and Iran, known as Operation Rising Lion, significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is no longer a nuclear threshold state as its status was prior to its war with Israel. It would take Iran at least one to two years to regain threshold status, assuming a decision by Supreme Leader Khamenei to pursue nuclear weapons. However, the war did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities entirely. Iran maintains residual capabilities that could eventually enable the rebuilding of its nuclear program and the...
Despite more than twenty years of promoting Islam under Erdoğan in Turkey and over four and a half decades of Islamic rule in Iran, secularization processes are observable in both countries, especially among the younger generation. In Turkey, despite efforts by the government to promote religion through the education system, public space, and legislation, many young people identify as secular, and there is a clear decline in religious practices such as fasting during Ramadan or praying in mosques. Similarly, in Iran, there is an...
