Publications

Amid ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States, we are approaching a critical juncture regarding the future of Iran’s nuclear program—caught between the possibility of a diplomatic resolution and the threat of military action (by Israel and/or the United States). This interactive map highlights Iran’s key military and nuclear facilities, along with the locations of direct attacks on Iranian territory attributed to Israel in April and October 2024. Whether the coming months bring renewed diplomatic efforts toward a...

The talks that began in April 2025 between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff—with Oman’s mediation—are bringing Iran, the United States, and Israel closer to critical moments regarding the future of Iran’s nuclear program. The results of the negotiations will largely determine whether the direction will be toward a political-diplomatic settlement on the nuclear issue or toward a military strike (Israeli, American, or joint) against Iran’s nuclear facilities. At this...

Iran’s responses to the talks between the United States and Russia on the future of the war in Ukraine, as well as the confrontation between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy, reflect internal divisions within the country’s two main political camps. The hardliners view the recent developments as reinforcing their position that the United States cannot be trusted. They argue that Iran must strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia and safeguard its strategic military assets, including its nuclear capabilities. In contrast, the...

The question of regime change in Iran has recently resurfaced in light of its weakening following the Israeli strike, the serious blow to the pro-Iranian axis—culminating in the collapse of the Assad regime—and the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. This article argues that if Israel makes a strategic decision to promote regime change in Iran (regardless of its feasibility or the possible alternatives to the current regime), the means and methods for achieving this goal should be assessed according to two...

The surprise attack by rebel forces against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently shaking the already fragile Syrian arena. Within just a few days, the rebel organizations managed to take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, while engaging in widespread attacks on regime forces and their supporters—without effective resistance from the regime, as was the case during the Syrian civil war. Turkey, which supports the rebels, apparently gave them the green light to launch the offensive and is hoping to...

Regional developments are posing challenges to Iran and the pro-Iranian axis it leads, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the main elements of its deterrence against its enemies. These elements include Iran’s use of “proxies,” its strategic military capabilities (missiles and drones), and its nuclear program. Recent months have revealed shortcomings in Iran’s security concept, which could lead to different approaches among the Iranian leadership. This may result in limited adjustments or a more strategic shift, especially...

The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency represents a particularly concerning scenario for Tehran. Despite initial attempts by Iranian official to downplay this development, it is clear that Iran is highly apprehensive about the election results, especially given reports that it had attempted to assassinate Trump and  his hawkish stance toward Iran during his first term. Furthermore, Trump’s return to office finds Iran at a critical crossroads. In the short term, it must decide on the timing and nature of its response to...

The continuation of the détente trend in the Middle East, coupled with the war between Israel and Hamas, is contributing to Israel’s isolation in the region. In this article, we assess the regional détente implications for Arab countries and highlight the importance of advancing normalization between Israel and these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence and that of its allies, which could endanger Israel.

The tightening of relations between China and Iran is considered one of the main factors preventing the collapse of Iran’s economy, which has been subject to sanctions since the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018. This improvement in relations began at the height of the COVID-19 crisis when the two countries signed a long-term cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening their economic ties in the following years. However, in practice, this partnership has been very limited and fundamentally asymmetric. Despite...

On August 11, 2024, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian submitted his proposed government to the Majlis for approval. Its composition reflects a balance between diverse political forces, both conservative and pragmatic alike, highlighting the constraints and limitations facing Pezeshkian as he navigates the main centers of power in Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The president has refrained from assigning ministers with distinctly reformist views to major government ministries, which the conservative establishment regards...