The United States is currently reviewing its policy on Iran. The administration has allowed the continued suspension of sanctions, after notifying Congress, as required by law, that Iran is complying with the JCPOA. At the same time, its public criticism of Iran’s activities in the Middle East has become harsher, with the goal of sharpening the link between the nuclear agreement and Iran’s regional activity. However, while the administration can choose from several ways of restricting Iran’s moves in the Middle East, it...
The first hundred days of Donald Trump’s presidency have been marked by tension between continued sharp and divisive rhetoric against political rivals at home and against “the media” on the one hand, and relative moderation and caution (along with moves showing determination and strength) in the conduct of foreign policy on the other. At the strategic level, the shapers of Trump’s administration will lead the President to persevere, as far as possible, with the strategy of “measured steps” in his...
The highlight of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s first official visit to Russia on March 27-28, 2017 was a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. At a joint press conference, Putin stressed that “Iran is a good and reliable neighbor, as well as a stable partner for Russia,” and announced that the intention is to bring the relations to the level of a “strategic partnership.” There is no doubt that Rouhani’s visit to Moscow is an important milestone in the developing relations between Iran and Russia....
The Revolutionary Guards’ expanded involvement in infrastructure and development projects throughout Iran is highly evident. However, the lifting of the economic sanctions following the implementation of the JCPOA provides an opportunity to reduce Revolutionary Guards involvement in the economy by means of encouraging foreign companies to invest in Iran once again. Indeed, the corps is well aware of the challenges it faces following the nuclear agreement that endanger the organization’s economic interests. However, it feels the need...
There are currently no good options for getting North Korea to reverse course in the nuclear realm, either through diplomacy or a more forceful approach, which raises fears of escalation to nuclear war. This is the result of years of failed negotiations followed by eight years of “strategic patience” under the Obama administration – which provided North Korea with the necessary time to advance its programs and perfect its capabilities. While the rollback of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities thus remains an elusive goal, there...
In late December 2016, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman of the Iranian Guardian Council, declared that women would be allowed to run in the next presidential election, scheduled for May 19, 2017. Realizing the demand to change legislation that discriminates against women is difficult, given the opposition of the religious establishment, which sees this as a danger liable to undermine the values of the Islamic Revolution. Despite its recent announcement, chances that the Guardian Council will allow the participation of a woman in...
In the brief period that the Trump administration has been in office, US policy on Iran signals a change from recent years. There is an emphasis on adopting a tough line, at least rhetorically, probably in an attempt to make the Iranians understand that in contrast to the Obama presidency, the Trump administration does not intend to ignore Tehran’s provocative measures. Change in the US rules of the game against Iran – achieving success in reining in Iran’s regional influence without being dragged into a conflict, and without Iran...
The anniversary of the implementation of the nuclear agreement has become an issue for political sniping in Iran by supporters and opponents of President Rouhani. As such, it is another reflection of the escalating conflict between Iran’s two main political camps ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for May 2017. While Rouhani is preparing to run for another term in office, his opponents are taking advantage of any opportunity to attack him for his failures to keep his promises to the public, headed by his promise to improve...
There are growing indications that efforts to reduce the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are underway. The most recent one was the arrival of the Kuwaiti foreign minister in Tehran on January 25, 2017 for a meeting with the Iranian president. The foreign minister brought with him a letter expressing the willingness of the Arab Gulf states to begin a “strategic dialogue” with Iran. Although complete details of the initiative were not disclosed, it included an invitation to begin negotiations based on good neighborly relations,...
The Trump administration has commenced with a tempest of policy implementation of promises made during the election campaign in areas of policy such as immigration, trade, health care, the Supreme Court, and many others. They mostly related to domestic policy and the American economy. Regarding the Middle East, the administration has adopted a different style of rhetoric from that of the previous administration. Nevertheless, there is no strong evidence for a new regional policy: whether in relation to Iran and the nuclear deal, the...
In the year since the nuclear agreement with Iran was implemented and Europe lifted the sanctions, there has been much momentum and activity regarding the resumption of contacts and signed agreements between European countries and Iran. Relations with Europe are exceedingly important to the regime in Tehran, both with regard to Europe as a source of economic-commercial benefits and as a counterweight to the United States. Iran’s relationship with Europe is especially significant upon the eve of Trump’s entry into the White House, and...
The article addresses the question of the future of Syria and Iraq after the Islamic State is defeated. This question, which has become more trenchant following the stepped up military effort to conquer the Islamic State’s strongholds in the second half of 2016, is given a mixed answer: the concrete materialization of the Salafi jihadist idea, i.e., the organization’s territorial base, may be defeated, but its historical and religious sources will continue to inspire efforts to realize it anew, and will therefore continue to...
