On the second anniversary of the implementation of the nuclear agreement and the removal of the international sanctions on Iran, it appears that the hopes of President Hassan Rouhani and the concerns voiced in Israel that the agreement would lead to a wave of foreign direct investments that would propel the Iranian economy to new heights, have not yet materialized. Although the Iranian economy has seen achievements, mainly a lowering of the inflation rate and a rise in growth, the rise in trade and foreign direct investments has...
During the final months of 2017, more than 600 people were killed in two terrorist attacks in Egypt and Somalia by two organizations that are allies of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. The large number of casualties caused by only two attacks indicates that notwithstanding announcements that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have been defeated, the campaign against terrorism by Salafi jihadist activists is far from over.
In 2017, the major actors in the international arena continued the cautious policy of recent years: a limited investment of resources in the Middle East, based on the desire to avoid falling into regional cauldrons that continue to simmer, though mostly on a low flame. Among the principal events that preoccupied the international actors were the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State, the stabilization of the Bashar al-Assad regime, and the worsening Sunni-Shiite conflict, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Other important...
This article examines the threat posed by Iran and North Korea, the two most serious nuclear proliferators challenging their respective regional orders, and the global nonproliferation regime. It examines two questions that have implications for assessing the ability of key international actors to confront not only Iran’s ongoing nuclear ambitions, but any future proliferator that embarks on a nuclear path in violation of its NPT commitments: how international actors choose to confront the proliferator, and their ability to cooperate...
Seven years after the onset of the upheaval in the Middle East and two years since the implementation of the nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, the main contours of the region’s emerging reality – including the actors, rivalries, partnerships, front lines, power relations, and behavior of the major powers – are becoming clear. Now, after nearly one full year at the Washington helm, the nature of the Trump administration and its influence on the domestic arena, the Middle East, and the global stage are also coming into...
As 2017 draws to a close, the Middle East is witnessing the convergence of several important developments that will potentially have a broad impact on Israeli national security. The civil war in Syria is subsiding through a process dominated by Russia, Iran, and Turkey – which poses the danger that Israel’s interests will not be taken into account in the deliberations and steps toward an agreement to stabilize the arena. The jihadist territorial Islamic State established in Iraq and Syria has been obliterated, although the underlying...
2017 was marked by increased Saudi-Iranian hostility, on both the bilateral level and the regional level, and by the strategic balance tilting further in Iran’s favor, intensifying the trend that emerged in the previous year. The new variable of 2017 – the entry of President Donald Trump into the White House – heightened the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and cast a potential shadow over Iran’s room to maneuver. On the one hand, the Trump administration poses a threat to Iran, by casting it as the main cause of regional...
The instability that has defined the Arab world in recent years continues. Arab regimes lack the motivation and/or the ability to deal with the fundamental problems that feed the actual or potential unrest, and above all the socioeconomic situation. Joining the internal shocks are rifts and tensions between regional players, particularly between the Shiite camp led by Iran, and the Sunni camp led by Saudi Arabia, which is also at war with itself. However, state frameworks have survived and previous assessments regarding the...
President Trump’s critical stance on the Iran nuclear deal has invited pundits and analysts to take a second look at the P5+1 negotiation process that led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In fact, the JCPOA has been the topic of heated debate since its inception, among strong supporters and determined critics alike. But a closer look at the negotiations process itself – rather than an examination solely of the outcome – provides insights and lessons that could affect policy planning and future contacts...
Since his reelection, Iranian President Rouhani has pursued a policy that to a great extent disregards the demands of the reformists who supported him during the elections and reflects a shift toward the conservative camp. This trend is evident in the President’s political appointments, his reneging on promises of civil reforms, and the reduced tension, at least in public, vis-à-vis the Revolutionary Guards. Disappointment with the President is evident among the reformists, although the prevailing opinion is that they should continue...
When embarking on the war in Yemen, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman promised a rapid decisive victory over the Houthis and the Iranians (Operation Decisive Storm). So far, however, and was proven again with the assassination of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Saudi Arabia has encountered serious difficulties in defeating a determined enemy on its own doorstep. Even if the internal and external pressures on the Houthis grow stronger, their determination and that of their Iranian allies to continue the military...
The understandings reached recently between the United States and Russia regarding Syria accept the deployment of Iranian forces and Iranian-controlled militias (proxies) on the range from the Golan Heights border – a situation that is entirely unacceptable to Israel. It seems that the time is coming when Israel, if it wants to stop Iran’s influence and consolidation in Syria, will have to become actively engaged in the Syrian quagmire. Israel must demonstrate determination in its demand to remove Iranian forces and...
