Since early November 2023, as part of the military response to the Swords of Iron war by the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance,” Shiite militias in Iraq have been launching missiles and UAVs targeted at Israel. These attacks, which have proliferated in recent months, reflect a shift in the patterns of the militias’ terrorist activity by the militias, which for years mainly attacked American forces in Iraq and Syria. Given this development, it is crucial for Israel and the United States to coordinate their response to this common...
The war in Gaza has provided further evidence for the alarming consequences of the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel. For the first time, Iran has used the Hamas attack and the war to implement its strategy of simultaneously activating its regional network of allies and proxy organizations against Israel. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has adopted an anti-Israeli position. However, the escalating friction between the two states, especially during the last decade, has evolved from a primarily ideological to a...
The Swords of Iron war between Israel and Hamas has assumed a new regional nature, with attacks by Iranian proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen. While Yemen is a secondary combat zone, the potential damage it could cause to Israel and the Gulf states, which have been accused by the Houthis of collaborating with Israel, could increase. If the Houthis continue to be involved in the fighting, Israel will be forced to find ways to deter them and respond to their aggression, which will make it hard for the Gulf states to maintain...
The increase in attacks by pro-Iranian militias against the US presence in Iraq and Syria, and the corresponding increase in the number of US forces in the region – coupled with the clear warnings from senior US officials that they hold Iran responsible for the tension – are signs of possible escalation. Although neither the United States nor Iran wants a direct confrontation, these developments, in addition to the potential deterioration of the situation between Israel and Hezbollah, have heightened the possibility of such a...
Russian dependence on Iran has deepened over the past few months, reflected in a variety of developments in security, foreign policy, and economic realms, in which Moscow increased its support for Iranian interests. Tightened relations, and especially Iranian assistance to Russia in the framework of Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine, indicate that the cooperation between the two countries is not just tactical; rather, it reflects a strategic decision by both sides. This development not only directly impacts Iranian force buildup and...
The recent visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Syria marked a significant achievement for Iran, as it was seen partly as a response to the normalization process between Israel and several Arab countries. The visit was presented by both countries as a demonstration of unity amidst a changing regional reality and a victory for the so-called axis of resistance. It took place against the backdrop of the improving relations between Iran and Syria and several Arab states, ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil, and...
Iran is currently focusing on two conflicting regional processes. On the one hand, it is gradually improving its relations with Arab countries, with special emphasis on the Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, there is a sharpening conflict between the so-called axis of resistance, backed by Iran, and Israel. While it is clear that the initiative for the most recent round of escalation on Israel’s northern and southern borders was not directly linked to Iran, but rather to developments on the Palestinian front,...
The escalation in multiple arenas over the course of Passover demonstrated the convergence of the Palestinian resistance axis, which relies on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with the Iran-Hezbollah axis. The timing of the escalation is also directly connected to the internal crisis in Israel, and reflects increased temerity by Israel’s enemies and their attempt to test whether its resilience has narrowed to the extent that they have an opportunity to change the deterrence equation. In light of the confluence of these elements,...
After a year of political upheaval marked by internal conflict among the Shiites in Iraq, the success of the pro-Iranian Shiite camp in forming a government without the camp’s main rival, Muqtada Sadr, is a source of satisfaction to pro-Iranian parties and militias in Iraq, as well as the Iranian regime. However, just as the road to the formation of the government was riddled with hurdles and political and economic problems that have not yet been resolved, the reality facing the new government is challenging, and has the potential...
The United Arab Emirates, Israel’s central partner in the Gulf, sees Iran as the main threat to its national security. The challenge that Iran poses to the UAE includes the threats, either direct or by means of proxies, of a kinetic attack on strategic targets, the potential use of subversion and terror, and control over Emirati territory. The UAE has reacted by developing a range of defensive responses, while simultaneously seeking to maintain open economic and diplomatic ties with Iran as much as possible. The UAE’s current efforts...
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan presents Iran with a new and complex situation. On the one hand, the withdrawal is perceived as a positive development, because Iran no longer has United States forces on its eastern and western borders, and it is clear that Tehran hopes that the US will subsequently withdraw its forces from Iraq. On the other hand, Iran and Afghanistan share a 900 kilometer-long border, and a lack of governance in Afghanistan will have immediate implications for Iran’s economy and security. Iran is...
