Amid the ongoing absence of Iran’s leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the Iranian media has recently featured a growing number of references emphasizing his experience, qualifications, involvement in state affairs, and standing alongside his father, while also providing religious justification for his absence. Accounts from his associates and supporters reflect an intensifying effort to bolster the legitimacy of a leader who assumed office without significant formal public experience and limited religious standing, amid criticism over...
Over the past year, an extensive debate has been underway in Iran regarding its nuclear doctrine and its validity. For decades, the Islamic Republic strove to achieve nuclear threshold capability while refraining from actually developing nuclear weapons, based on the view that such a capability provides deterrence without exposing Iran to the costs associated with a nuclear breakout. However, developments since October 2023, particularly the two American-Israeli strikes on Iran over the past year, have shaken the Iranian security...
Reactions in Iran to the security agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan reflect a cautious and complex approach regarding its implications. At this stage, most commentators do not view the agreement as a cohesive anti-Iranian military alliance or an “Islamic NATO” capable of shifting the regional balance of power. These commentators emphasize the gaps between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, as well as the ambiguity surrounding their military commitments. However, others identify the agreement as an...
The war in Iran and the subsequent worsening economic crisis have accelerated the ongoing erosion of the country’s middle class, which has been particularly hard hit by high inflation, the impact of sanctions, declining purchasing power, and a growing employment crisis. In recent months, Iranian scholars and commentators have warned of the downward mobility of large segments of the middle class into lower socioeconomic strata and of their increasing dependence on government assistance, undermining their ability to sustain the...
Since the outbreak of Operation “Roaring Lion,” and even more so against the backdrop of the escalation in Lebanon in recent weeks, the perception emphasizing Hezbollah’s importance as a strategic component of Iran’s security doctrine has grown stronger in Tehran. Hezbollah’s decision to join the campaign alongside Iran was perceived in Tehran as an expression of its commitment to the pro-Iranian axis in the region and of the continued relevance of Iran’s proxy strategy—which appeared to be eroding following the...
This dashboard report presents ten charts documenting the global economic effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. From surging oil, gas, and jet fuel prices, to disruptions in aluminum and fertilizer supply chains, and mounting pressure on the global food price index, the charts together point to a single vulnerability in the global economy that evolved into a catalyst for a multidimensional crisis. The charts will be updated weekly and will continue tracking effects likely to persist well after the fighting subsides, as...
More than two months after the outbreak of Operation “Roaring Lion,” the Islamic Republic stands with significant vulnerabilities and a new leadership, yet it also has certain achievements to its credit. These include surviving a joint American-Israeli attack and exploiting levers of pressure created during the fighting, including attacks against the Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While it is premature to assess the full implications of the war, the conclusion of which remains uncertain, prominent...
Although we are currently in the midst of a war and do not yet know how it will end, the US negotiations initiative—which may bring the campaign to an end—requires a clear definition of Israel’s interest regarding the Iranian nuclear project.
The conclusion of Operation Roaring Lion will place Israel and the international community before a new strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran. The regime in Tehran, if it survives the war, may—after experiencing systemic trauma and damage to its senior leadership—adopt a national security doctrine...
This interactive map highlights the deployment of U.S. military assets and other relevant actors in the region. The current U.S. posture signals deterrence and readiness for offensive military operations, while reflecting a strong preference to avoid a protracted conflict. Combined with intensified ISR activity and diplomatic signaling, this configuration supports coercive diplomacy but also increases the risk of escalation through miscalculation in an already volatile theater. The map is updated regularly and as accurately as...
The brutal suppression of the protest wave in Iran has led to a radical shift within the reformist camp toward the regime. Senior reformist figures, who in the past adhered to a cautious and restrained discourse and affirmed their commitment to the Islamic Republic’s core principles, have in recent days expressed positions that challenge the very political conception underpinning the current regime. This shift follows years in which reformists emphasized the necessity of evolutionary change over revolutionary transformation. Together...
The foundations of the Islamic Republic have, since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, been anchored in the concept of the rule of the jurist (velayat-e faqih), shaped in the spirit of the vision of the revolution’s architect, Ruhollah Khomeini. His death in 1989 necessitated a clear deviation from this principle since none of his loyal disciples possessed sufficiently high religious standing to succeed him. The appointment of Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader—made possible by an amendment to the Iranian constitution—heralded the...
