The Negev Summit focused on images: The countries whose representatives took part in the meeting sought to convey a message of joint organizing for facing shared challenges. The United States also sought to demonstrate a commitment to its allies in the Middle East and to the region’s stability by attending the summit. But in practice, the region’s countries cannot prevent the finalizing of a renewed nuclear agreement with Iran and, apart from Israel, they are deterred from confronting Iran militarily; the Houthis continue to launch...
The talk in Israel in recent weeks over possible escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian arena in advance of the upcoming month of Ramadan received new momentum with the two recent deadly attacks: the attack in Beer Sheva by a resident of Hura who was identified with ISIS, and the attack in Hadera by two ISIS loyalists from Umm al-Fahm, which killed two border police officers. Behind this discourse is the deterioration of security in the West Bank and the memory of May 2021 and Operation Guardian of the Walls, which boosted the status...
While most Western countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority remained silent. The Palestinians regard the Ukrainian struggle against the invasion as competing with them for international attention. They are frustrated that their struggle is cast by many as terrorism, while the struggle in Ukraine is treated as a just war for freedom. The Palestinians have accordingly neither expressed any public empathy for the Ukrainians nor demonstrated any solidarity with...
The Palestinian arena presents a core challenge to Israel’s national security. The current government, like its predecessor, seeks to buy time and to postpone weighty strategic decisions on the Palestinian issue. This conflict management strategy has four consequences: One: Increased potential for weakening the Palestinian Authority’s governance and legitimacy, which could intensify in advance of “the day after Mahmoud Abbas,” thus leading to a rise in terrorism and the lack of a responsible Palestinian...
On February 1, 2022, Amnesty International published a report accusing Israel of committing the crime of apartheid against the Palestinians. Israel strongly condemned the report’s findings, declaring it was “false, biased, and antisemitic.” The report’s extremism makes it easier to rebuff as it exposes the agenda of its authors, which is not defending the Palestinians and their rights while facing the challenges of a complex reality, but rather denouncing Israel and denying its right to exist as a state of the...
A series of decisions on appointments and candidacies taken recently at the Fatah Central Committee caused an uproar in the Palestinian arena. Their implementation would be interpreted as an attempted takeover of the PLO and the Palestinian Authority (PA) power centers by the “Abu Mazen camp” in Fatah, perpetuation of the intra-Palestinian divide, delay of the elections to PA institutions to an unknown date, and increased dependence on Israel. In effect, reflecting a lack of interest in public legitimacy, these decisions...
In advance of its Annual International Conference, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a simulation designed to assess the prospects of an initiative to convene an international conference on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this simulation, a discussion by the UN Security Council took place following an escalation in violence and terrorism in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, which extended to other arenas. Experts and former senior figures from the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Egypt, the United...
In February 2019, on the eve of the dissolution of the 20th Knesset and the first of the recurring elections that paralyzed the political system in Israel, MK (and today Minister of Public Security) Omer Bar Lev and I issued a report about the ground forces, the need to decide about their role in military campaigns, and on that basis, the ensuing plans for military buildup. In the years prior we headed the two relevant subcommittees of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee – I was the head of the Subcommittee on Defense Doctrine...
Since Operation Guardian of the Walls, the Israeli pledge that “what was is not what will be” indeed appears validated, although not in the sense that the Israeli leadership intended. The strategic positioning of Hamas after the last round of fighting is better than before, and while Israel succeeded in restoring calm along the Gaza Strip, the price in strategic terms is greater than what Israel can afford. Hamas, as a terror organization, has become a more dangerous enemy in general, and particularly in the event of an operation on...
In the past two years, Israel has unofficially renewed the employment of Gaza Strip residents in Israel, and the number of Gazans who received “merchant permits” rose to 10,000 in October. This article briefly reviews the history of employment of Gaza residents in Israel and the connection between this employment, unemployment in the Gaza Strip, and support for Hamas. Based on findings presented here, the article concludes that the effect of employment of 10,000 Gazans in Israel on unemployment in the Gaza Strip is likely...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
In recent years, there has been an increasing tendency to speak of the “demise of the two-state solution” and to replace it with one state from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River as a solution to the Israeli−Palestinian conflict. The proponents of the one-state model claim that the two states solution is no longer feasible, given that the Green Line has been blurred and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) is connected to the State of Israel by extensive Israeli settlements and activity−both military and civilian.
Is the...
