In his second term, US President Donald Trump is unlikely to pursue the same Middle East policy as in his first. This shift stems from significant regional changes, including the decline of Iran’s power and its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” the renewed centrality of the Palestinian issue, and the growing strategic importance of the Gulf states in the great-power competition. President Trump’s generally favorable stance toward several regimes in the region, as well as his strong personal ties with key leaders, could generate...
A Pivotal Player: Jordan and the New Syria
Ofir Winter
INSS Insight No. 1931, January 12, 2025
The overthrow of the regime in Syria presents Jordan with an array of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the Hashemite Kingdom is worried about instability on its northern border, the possibility that Iranian influence will be replaced by a Turkish one, and the export of Islamist revolutionary fervor from Syria to Jordan. On the other hand, it recognizes an opportunity to block the drug and arms smuggling routes between Syria and Jordan, return the Syrian refugees in Jordan to their homeland, and promote economic cooperation...
Egypt in a Multipolar World: Treading the Tightrope Between Great Powers
Ofir Winter,
Nexus, A Review of Middle Eastern Religions & Politics
As Donald Trump’s return to the White House reshapes global power dynamics, this article examines Egypt’s sophisticated diplomatic strategy, highlighted by its recent entry into BRICS in early 2024. It explores how Egypt manages its “uncomfortable but indispensable” relationship with the United States while fostering ties with China and Russia, showing how cultural and religious legacies influence these alliances.
Thirty years after the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and Jordan, water cooperation remains a central pillar of the relationship between the two countries. Jordan’s water crisis presents challenges for the kingdom, potentially leading to internal social and political unrest, mass migration, and even destabilization of regional order. These scenarios also have implications for Israel, which sees the stability of Jordan and the region as an important security anchor. Against this backdrop, the two countries should view...
The Red Sea region has drawn increasing attention in light of the Houthi attacks and the damage they have caused to the freedom of global shipping in general and to Israel in particular. This is in addition to the impact of other escalating conflicts in the region, in which Israel is not directly involved, such as those in Sudan and Somalia. The intensification of these conflicts highlights the recognition that only through multilateral, regional, and international cooperation can the relevant challenges in the Red Sea be addressed....
Arab states can help advance a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, an agreement for the release of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas, and an end to the war by adopting a resolute approach to Hamas. This approach, involving increased pressure, isolation, and delegitimization, should aim to undermine Hamas’s image and standing among the Arab public opinion. The proposed measures include media campaigns and public denunciations, legal sanctions, limitations on activity, and the promotion of an alternative religious discourse. These...
The Iranian Attack: An Opportunity to Repair Israel–Jordan Relations
Ofir Winter
INSS Insight No. 1851, May 6, 2024
Since October 7, Jordan has been facing two escalating challenges: First, Iran and its affiliated regional militias are challenging Jordanian sovereignty, as they aim to turn the kingdom’s airspace and territory into a battleground for smuggling weapons and launching attacks against Israel. Second, Islamist forces, both domestic and foreign, are pressuring the kingdom to cancel the peace treaty and normalization with Israel and align with Hamas. The palace’s ability to face both challenges is likely to shape relations between Israel...
Following the October 7 attack, there has been a significant surge in antisemitic expressions in Arab discourse. It involved the demonization of Jews in religious terms, the propagation of conspiracy theories alleging, among other things, the existence of Jewish control over global media, and narratives that deny or distort the scope and nature of the war crimes committed by Hamas.
After 45 Years: The Impact of the Gaza War on the Israel–Egypt Peace Accord
, Ofir Winter
INSS Insight No. 1844, April 8, 2024
In the shadow of the October 7 massacre and the subsequent war that erupted in the Gaza Strip, Israel and Egypt recently marked the 45th anniversary of signing the peace accord between the two countries. While the events of the past few months have presented Israel and Egypt with a formidable test, the repercussions of this situation have not exceeded the traditional ambivalence that characterizes their relationship. Although the public and official discourse on both sides has been full of inflammatory, hostile, wary, and mistrustful...
Islamist “Civilian” Influence Campaign Targeting Israel
David Siman-Tov, , , Ofir Winter
A Special Publication in cooperation between INSS and the Institute for the Study of Intelligence Methodology at the Israel Intelligence Heritage Commemoration Center (IICC), April 2, 2024
In the context of the war in Gaza, a foreign influence campaign is flooding Israeli users of the social network X (formerly Twitter) with messages in Hebrew designed to promote Hamas’s objectives. The campaign is executed by a community of Arab Muslims from several countries and orchestrated by Egyptian activists affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood movement who operate from Turkey. Since the group seeks to recruit people to its efforts, it openly describes its goals and some of its action methods, allowing a rare “behind the...
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