The ongoing popular protests in Iraq reflect the public’s rejection of the highly corrupt political system that is unable to advance changes and reforms, as well as Iran’s profound involvement in Iraqi affairs. Iraq’s political system and Iran’s leadership are well aware that the protests are a very significant threat to Iraq’s internal stability. Nonetheless, at this stage, neither side seems willing to adopt any of the protesters’ demands that threaten both the future of the Iraqi political elite and Iraqi assets acquired by Iran,...
The ongoing protests across Iraq and Lebanon have invited references to a second Arab Spring, nearly nine years after a young Tunisian man set himself on fire and triggered a region-wide upheaval. The unrest comes on the heels of protests in Egypt and Jordan earlier this fall, a mass mobilization in Sudan this year, and a protest movement in Algeria that has endured since February. Recently, mass demonstrations have also broken out across Iran, suggesting the current wave may not remain confined to the Arab Middle East. Each of these...
Against the backdrop of its military involvement in Syria, Iran has taken a series of steps since 2014 to reinforce its standing in Syria and Lebanon and enhance its military preparedness there, as well as that of its proxies – first and foremost Hezbollah. These steps are of two types. One consists of steps designed to influence Syria’s internal situation and bind it to Iran for the long term, including economic agreements on reconstruction, resettlement of Shiites in Syria, introduction of Iranian religious and cultural values into...
Strikes reportedly carried out by Israel over the past month in Iraq, and in recent days in Syria and Lebanon, are part of the “campaign between wars” (CBW) that Israel has waged against Iran’s regional campaign of proxy warfare. These incidents mark a deviation from the routine and from the principles that had guided the campaign in recent years. The recent sequence of events has three salient characteristics: the theaters of operations, the operational tempo and their public profile. These events have possible...
There are growing signs that Israel has expanded its campaign against Iran’s efforts to consolidate its power in the region, including in attacks on infrastructures in Iraq that are linked to Iran. An overall cost-benefit analysis should prompt Israel to consider the potential implications of expanding the campaign, among them an early withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, which would leave Israel alone in the campaign against Iran’s entrenchment in the region. The Iranian attempt to carry out weaponized drone attacks...
In March 2019, nearly five years after its founding, the Islamic State suffered its final military defeat when it lost control over its last stronghold in al-Baghuz, in eastern Syria. At its peak, the Islamic State controlled an area the size of Britain and a population of about six million people. Despite the fact that its attempt to establish an Islamic state, followed by an Islamic caliphate, was halted, the Islamic State and its affiliates, together with al-Qaeda and its allies – who share their ideology while themselves...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Eight years after a series of uprisings erupted across the Middle East, there is a debate whether a relatively stable order (old or new) has taken hold in the Middle East, or whether the region remains unstable and, therefore, will continue to produce waves of unrest. At its heart, this debate reflects conflicting assessments of the regimes’ abilities to manage what few would argue are fundamental economic problems and identity-related crises that have gone largely unresolved and, in some cases, worsened. For decision makers in...
United States pressure on Iraq to comply with the sanctions against Iran, along with President Trump’s statement about using “US troops in Iraq as a base from which to strike extremists in Syria if necessary” and “to watch Iran,” has sparked tension between Iraq and the United States. The leadership in Baghdad was quick to protest the US intentions, and a bill is under debate in the Iraqi parliament that would prohibit the presence of US forces in Iraq. This tension has spurred Iran to reinforce its...
After a string of achievements in the Middle East and the start of an economic recovery following the removal of the sanctions, Iran was confronted in 2018 with growing external and domestic challenges. These challenges undermine the strategic stability that was the basis for Iranian policy in recent years, particularly since the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) was achieved.
These challenges are evident in all the areas relevant to Iran’s strategic situation. In the internal arena, the ongoing...
The Six Day War, which broke out on the morning of June 5, 1967, was a formative event that changed the face of the State of Israel and, to a large extent, the entire Middle East. Prior to the war, Israel had been under existential threat and in six days, the Israel Defense Forces succeeded in removing the threat by achieving a decisive military victory and positioning Israel as a significant force in the region. This victory was accompanied by new complexities, and fifty years after the war, some of its implications still remain as...
The US administration blamed Iran for the September 2018 rocket attacks against the US consulate building in Basra, Iraq, claiming they were carried out by Shiite militia forces. The administration announced the transfer of its diplomatic staff to the embassy in Baghdad, and senior US officials have threatened that Iran will pay a heavy price if it strikes American targets. Although the US statements relate to Iran’s overall activity in the Middle East, they seem to place special emphasis on Iraq’s potential to become more of a...
