For weeks Iran has weathered demonstrations, mainly in protest against the growing shortages of water and electricity, and against the background of the prolonged economic crisis and the spread of the coronavirus delta variant. To date, protests are limited and do not pose an immediate threat to the regime. At the same time, the demonstrations highlight the depth of the despair and frustration among the public, which in turn will continue to feed additional waves of protest. This situation poses a significant challenge to Ebrahim...
Growing trends in the Middle East over the past year have pushed Russia and Iran closer, even though conflicting interests prevent them from becoming strategic allies. Moscow and Tehran coordinate positions in the negotiations underway in Vienna regarding a return to the nuclear deal and cooperate in several areas to dislodge American influence, and there is greater publicity regarding military-defense relations that are expected to lead to weapons deals. Russia from time to time even conveys messages of restraint to Jerusalem, lest...
At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...
The victory of Ebrahim Raisi in Iran’s presidential elections has reawakened the internal debate among Iranian reformists concerning the state and future of the reform movement. A number of leading reformists are blaming the movement’s failure on mistaken strategy, and are calling for change, return to the movement’s fundamental principles, and restoration of its base of public support. On the other hand, others are blaming the failure on circumstances beyond the reformists’ control, and continue to support a...
Iran is not in a hurry to return to the nuclear talks with the United States and will not return to negotiations before President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes office. In the meantime, Tehran is accumulating important knowledge and experience for a decision to progress toward nuclear weapons, and in the international arena there is increasing doubt regarding the chance of renewing the nuclear deal. Under the auspices of the dialogue underway in Vienna, Iran is progressing on uranium enrichment to high levels, uranium metal production,...
The decision by Iran’s Guardian Council to disqualify the vast majority of the candidates in the coming presidential elections, including former speaker of the Majlis Ali Larijani, and Eshaq Jahangiri, First Vice-President under President Rouhani, in effect leaves the hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi as the only candidate with real chances of winning the elections. This decision is another reflection of the regime’s efforts to strengthen the conservative hegemony in the political elite, especially in advance of the struggle over...
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the People’s Republic of China embody the main strategic threats facing, respectively, Israel and its major power ally, the US. The relationship between both governments and their converging interests, especially in the contexts of energy and security cooperation, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and a shared vision of an alternative international order in which America exerts considerably diminished influence, pose challenges to Israel in particular.
China is not only one of Israel’s top trade...
Defense cooperation between China and Iran reportedly began in the early 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War, when China became one of Iran’s main arms suppliers and contributed to its nuclear program. Following the war, and since then, Chinese arms exports to Iran gradually declined, and in 1997 the assistance to Iran’s nuclear program formally ceased. Although the current level of cooperation between China and Iran pales in comparison with that of the 1980s and 1990s, there have been significant advances under Xi Jinping,...
The meetings reported in recent weeks between Iran and Saudi Arabia are a new development in the relations between the two countries, which were severed in 2016. The immediate context is the change of administration in the United States. The Biden administration has begun a dialogue with Tehran about a return to the nuclear agreement, and has also severely criticized Saudi Arabia. The changed stance in the White House has led to adjustments in Saudi foreign policy, including a reconciliation with Qatar in January 2021, the offer of a...
On March 27, 2021, China and Iran signed a strategic agreement focusing on large-scale investments by China in Iran in exchange for a supply of oil over the next 25 years. The very achievement of this agreement helps ease Iran’s economic isolation, imposed by the United States. At the same time, China-Iran relations are complex and tension-rich, and a far cry from an “all weather” solid alliance guaranteeing the Islamic Republic of Iran full strategic support from the People’s Republic of China. Nonetheless, the developing...
Iran and the United States reported that the first round of indirect talks between them, aimed at finding a formula for a return to the nuclear agreement, was serious and constructive, although there is no assurance that the process will succeed. Despite the common interest of both sides to return to the agreement, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles and it is possible that the talks will collapse. Beyond the existing disagreements, the attack on the Natanz website, which Iran blames on Israel, may undermine the Vienna talks. In...
The Biden administration will be required to define its position on the establishment of a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East before the fifteenth Review Conference (RevCon) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) scheduled for August 2021. This sensitive issue could once again pit Israel against the United States, in view of the support of previous Democratic administrations for resolutions to advance the issue. As the RevCon approaches, Israel should coordinate its positions with the US in the framework...
