After three years of being ruled by a coalition of pro-Iranian Shiite parties and militias, Iraq has reshuffled its political cards once again. The recent parliamentary elections gave incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani leadership of the largest bloc, creating a new challenge for the pro-Iranian governing coalition. Although al-Sudani is seeking another term, some coalition members oppose this.
At the same time, an internal confrontation has emerged within the regime’s top echelon between the core leadership of the...
Since early November 2023, as part of the military response to the Swords of Iron war by the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance,” Shiite militias in Iraq have been launching missiles and UAVs targeted at Israel. These attacks, which have proliferated in recent months, reflect a shift in the patterns of the militias’ terrorist activity by the militias, which for years mainly attacked American forces in Iraq and Syria. Given this development, it is crucial for Israel and the United States to coordinate their response to this common...
In the months since its establishment, the new government of Iraq, which relies heavily on the support of the pro-Iranian bloc in parliament, has sought a foreign policy that balances between Iran and the United States. In addition, the government, headed by Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, hopes to improve relations with Iraq’s Arab neighbors, as well as with Turkey. This diplomatic effort, which reflects the government’s desire to bring some stability to Iraq and to resolve some of the country’s most basic problems in the...
After a year of political upheaval marked by internal conflict among the Shiites in Iraq, the success of the pro-Iranian Shiite camp in forming a government without the camp’s main rival, Muqtada Sadr, is a source of satisfaction to pro-Iranian parties and militias in Iraq, as well as the Iranian regime. However, just as the road to the formation of the government was riddled with hurdles and political and economic problems that have not yet been resolved, the reality facing the new government is challenging, and has the potential...
The rapprochement between the Gulf states and Iraq is of economic and geostrategic importance. It allows Iraq to attract necessary investments and balance the influence of Iran, and through their involvement in Iraq, the Gulf states seek to improve their security and influence in the region. However, Iraq’s political impasse following the 2021 elections, along with the foreign involvement in its affairs, makes it difficult for it to move closer to the Arab world and function as a bridge between the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf....
The economies of the Middle East are divided into high-income economies – those of Israel and the Gulf states – and poor/developing economies, with some states – Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen – suffering deep economic and political crises. The wealthy economies responded to the COVID-19 crisis with vaccinations for the majority of their populations and fiscal expansions, and global price increases are expected to lead to a moderate increase in inflation in these economies. The developing economies, however, have had difficulty...
The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The parliamentary elections in Iraq this past October were essentially decided in advance, when Iraqis took to the streets in opposition to the local Shiite militias and the corrupt ruling class that has failed to tackle economic problems. Iran received a clear message that anyone who tries to shape the agenda in Iraq will encounter considerable problems. Thus the big question remains: given the difficulties of forming a government of “the winners of the neglect” under Shiite leader Muqtada a-Sadr, will Iran be able to “impose” a...
At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
