Publications

The general elections in Turkey in May 2023 once again confronted the Turkish regime with the Kurdish problem. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regards the three parts of Kurdistan (excluding the one located within Iran) as a Turkish “Lebensraum,” reflecting his expansionist neo-Ottomanist tendencies as well as the general threat perception regarding the Kurds. While in the recent election campaign Erdogan managed to maneuver and prevent the Kurdish party from tipping the scale – which thereby decided the elections in his favor – the...

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community. The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...

A phenomenon that has intensified over the past decade in the Middle East is the use of mercenaries to project power and to realize interests. It seems that the Gulf states, Turkey, and Russia are leaders in this trend, using numerous mercenaries for combat missions beyond their borders. Mercenaries give those who deploy them a tool for managing warfare beyond their own borders, and another means of power projection while reducing their official losses. Israel, which is currently engaged in the struggle against Iranian entrenchment...

Idlib province in northwest Syria remains the last significant stronghold of the rebellion against the Assad regime. The campaign that was revived recently in this area is marked by traits of the civil war now entering its tenth year: cruel and indiscriminate regime fighting backed by Russia and Iranian-run Shiite militias; a humanitarian crisis, manifested inter alia in displacement and potential refugees; a Russian effort, so far fruitless, to mediate between the sides; a danger of the situation deteriorating – militarily and...

In the last few decades, interest has increased in ethnic diasporas and their influence on conflicts and peace processes in the countries or regions from where they came. Although studies show that the impact of ethnic diasporas varies in different conflicts and at various times, there is sufficient evidence suggesting that a diaspora community can have a significant role. Research indicates that the existence of a large diaspora in the West can feed a conflict and exacerbate it (inter alia, by providing finance, supplying weapons,...

Operation Peace Spring, Turkey’s third operation in northern Syria since 2016, constitutes its most ambitious action in Syria yet. The developments leading up to the offensive and the outcomes of the operation have regional and international ramifications well beyond this specific campaign – particularly for the conduct of the various actors in light of President Donald Trump’s desire to end US involvement in conflicts in the region. The offensive was not in itself surprising given the numerous Turkish threats to this...