Publications

As the war in the Gaza Strip continues, Israel’s international legitimacy is eroding, its global standing is deteriorating, the IDF is being worn down, and divisions within Israeli society are widening. Escaping this deadlock requires a paradigmatic shift that moves beyond the narrow thinking of only two options (as defined by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu): either a full occupation of the Strip or capitulation to Hamas, which would remain in power, in exchange for the release of the hostages. However, there is another option—one...

The very fact that Israeli–Saudi normalization remains on the agenda, indicates that the fundamental motivations of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States to advance this goal have not fundamentally changed, even after the momentum toward completing the process was halted by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the ensuing war. The three main states involved in the process are still striving—each for their own reasons—to bring the negotiations to fruition, with the overarching goal being the shaping of a new regional...

Contemporary Israel, probably more than ever before, requires a widely accepted national security doctrine—grounded in the values of Israel’s Declaration of Independence. Its overarching objectives are to ensure Israel’s security, prosperity, and Jewish-democratic character, with a firm Jewish majority and defensible, recognized borders

Operation Home and Garden was declared an operational success, but its effects will wear off quickly unless there is a change in the overall situation, especially regarding the balance of power in the northern West Bank. Therefore, what is needed is a complementary political move to realize the potential of cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and to create the conditions that will allow and encourage the PA to return to Jenin – primarily as an entity capable of reconstruction following the IDF operation. At the...

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

Current Situation  – Following escalation in the West Bank in 2022, volatility has increased · Weaker PA · Hamas has grown stronger |  Current Israeli Strategy – New government’s policy lines depart from the strategy that prevailed until now · Postpone weighty decisions · Maintain a calm security situation for as long as possible | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Focus on conflict management with no effort toward a future agreement · Palestinian burden on Israel increases · Time is a critical vector in the slide toward a...

The Negev Summit focused on images: The countries whose representatives took part in the meeting sought to convey a message of joint organizing for facing shared challenges. The United States also sought to demonstrate a commitment to its allies in the Middle East and to the region’s stability by attending the summit. But in practice, the region’s countries cannot prevent the finalizing of a renewed nuclear agreement with Iran and, apart from Israel, they are deterred from confronting Iran militarily; the Houthis continue to launch...

The events surrounding the Ukraine crisis – irrespective of whether Russia continues to realize its threats to invade, or the NATO countries and Russia reach agreements that at least for now remove the threat of a Russian full-scale attack against Ukraine – already pose challenges to the international order that has existed for the past three decades. Similarly, they have direct and indirect, immediate and longer-term consequences for the Middle East in general, and for Israel in particular. In any case, and even if Israel prefers to...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

The IDF withdrawal from Lebanon 20 years ago and the renewed deployment along the UN-recognized international border was a unilateral move by Israel, welcomed by the international community. By contrast, the application of Israeli sovereignty over territory in the West Bank, also a unilateral move, will be the annexation of disputed territory between Israel and the Palestinians, and there is a broad consensus among leading international elements of its illegality. Three critical parameters of Israel’s exit from Lebanon may shed light...