The Institute for National Security Studies conducted a simulation to examine an American–Arab framework for ending the war in Gaza, normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and forming a regional security-economic coalition. In the simulation, Hamas rejected the framework as long as it is capable of fighting and no alternative mechanism for governing Gaza is established. Israel responded positively to the framework despite the price required, such as advancing a political process toward a two-state-for-two-peoples...
Since the beginning of the war, the UN has been releasing reports and updates regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza, showing a dire picture of a shortage of humanitarian aid, a severe nutritional crisis, and even the spread of famine in the area. A close examination of these reports, based on the UN’s own clarifications, shows that they portray an inaccurate and partial picture of the aid entering the Gaza Strip. The reports are based on incomplete data from sources in Gaza and disregard significant portions of aid shipments...
Using a simulation involving many actors, INSS examined a scenario in which Israel, with the goal of preventing Hamas from rebuilding and ensuring that the Gaza Strip is not engulfed in total chaos, is forced to recapture the territory and impose martial law. This analysis showed that the costs of such an occupation would be extremely high for Israel. In addition, while Israel would be required to formulate a strategy for ending the war in Gaza, the war of attrition being waged against Israel by Iran’s proxies would continue and...
The risk of the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, along with the need for significant changes within it—preconditions for its rehabilitation, its return to the Gaza Strip, and the creation of conditions for a political settlement based on the principle of two states—in order to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia and end the war in Gaza—require a different approach than what has been accepted in the past. In part, the establishment of two or three Palestinian cities (such as Rawabi, north of Ramallah), and the subsequent...
The Israeli government has decided to formulate a package of measures in response to the Palestinian Authority’s diplomatic-legal campaign against Israel in various forums on the international stage. Most of the measures, however, would cause more harm than benefit. Afterall, they will not persuade the Palestinian Authority to change its confrontational policy vis-à-vis Israel nor will they diminish the international legitimacy the PA enjoys. At the same time, the proposed measures increase the risk of Israel’s significant...
This article examines the validity of the claim that granting work permits to Palestinian workers from the West Bank creates a security risk for the citizens of Israel. The analysis is based on an original and new database regarding the 153 Israelis who were murdered within the Green Line (the demarcation line from 1949), including East Jerusalem, from January 1, 2007, to October 6, 2023. The data show that in these 17 years, three attacks were conducted by terrorists with work permits, resulting in the deaths of four people....
In spite of the severe damage it has sustained, Hamas is expected to recruit more terrorists to replenish its ranks. The Israeli leadership is still debating whether to make a decision—the decision that will effectively determine the fate of the war, after some eight months. But against this background, critical questions are already emerging: What are the advantages and disadvantages of an Israeli military administration in Gaza? What are the implications of this scenario for the capabilities of the IDF? And what is the significance...
Israel is capable of subduing Hamas by drastically reducing its influence among the public it purports to represent and lead, by denying the “damage power” and veto power it holds. This requires the implementation of six efforts—military, civilian, political, humanitarian, regional cooperation and cognitive—in a cohesive and synchronized manner.
Jordan’s stability is being undermined by mass demonstrations outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, organized by the National Forum for Supporting the Resistance and spearheaded by the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Iranian subversion, and the use of the Hashemite Kingdom for smuggling weapons and money to terrorist organizations in the West Bank are also contributing to the instability. Concern that this destabilizing of Jordan could lead to the deployment of Iran and its proxies along the Israel–Jordan border should spur Israel to...
It is in Israel’s interest to link an agreement of normalization with Saudi Arabia to the kingdom’s involvement in the Palestinian arena, especially Riyadh’s commitment to the rehabilitation and administration of the Gaza Strip. However, Israel’s refusal to define a diplomatic horizon for resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and the conditional and gradual incorporation of the Palestinian Authority in running Gaza could delay an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In the background, relations between the United States...
Preface
By Executive Director of INSS Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman
In the six months since October 7, despite the considerable operational achievements on the battlefield in the Gaza Strip, none of the war's objectives have yet been fully achieved. A total of 133 hostages are still being held in Gaza, and Hamas has not yet been decisively defeated. The war against Hamas is waning, as was expected at this stage, and even an operation in Rafah will not significantly change this trend. This decline in the war can lead to weariness,...
