Beyond the immediate risk of releasing terrorists from Israeli prisons and allowing residents and Hamas militants to return to northern Gaza, the State of Israel is now facing a weighty challenge: preventing Hamas from rebuilding its strength amidst the destruction in Gaza during the current ceasefire. Israel must develop a robust contingency plan that will help mitigate risks if the ceasefire collapses or the hostage release plan is not fully implemented.
The return of Trump to the White House has reignited discussions about normalization with Saudi Arabia and the establishment of a new regional order in the Middle East. A flash poll[1] conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies in early January examined these issues among the Israeli public.
According to the survey data, the majority of Israelis—approximately 70%—supported a deal to release the hostages and implement a ceasefire about two weeks before the actual agreement came into effect. Additionally, most Israelis...
A comparative analysis of four polls, conducted with the requisite caution due to methodological limitations, reveals fundamental differences in the findings in relation to similar questions asked across the different polls. This analysis especially highlights the dialectic expressed in the criticism of Hamas and the dissatisfaction with its functioning; the decline in the popularity of Yahya Sinwar (before he was killed) and Hamas alongside increased support for Hamas compared to Fatah; and the support for continuing the armed...
After a year of war, it is time to reassess Israel’s fundamental strategic alternatives and the contrasting views that have figured prominently in the professional disputes, media opinions, and public discourse regarding the war, its trajectory, and continuation since its outbreak.
A series of operational successes provides Israel with the ideal opportunity to closely consider its exit strategy. Now, with these achievements accumulating, it is the right time to examine the question of ending the military campaign and securing its diplomatic benefits to improve Israel’s national security in every respect.
In recent weeks, Israel has achieved a series of successes, particularly on the northern front and in the Gaza Strip. Some of these achievements can be attributed to chance, such as the elimination of Hamas...
As the war in Gaza—Operation Swords of Iron—continues, we examined the perceptions and attitudes of the Israeli public regarding the Palestinian issue as well as the functioning of the state in two rounds of focus groups conducted by INSS. The primary insights are that while the Israeli public does not have trust in state institutions, there is trust in the Israeli people themselves. Additionally, it will be impossible to improve Israel’s security situation through political agreement, and therefore, Israel should rely on military...
Israel has utilized its military action in the Gaza Strip and has successfully dismantled the military arm of Hamas. However, it has not achieved the release of the hostages, and it has not destroyed—or at least neutralized—Hamas’s control over Gaza. In response, several generals in the IDF reserves recently proposed a plan for taking control of northern Gaza, evacuating the civilian population, and laying siege to the area (the “Generals’ Plan”). While the plan contributes to the ongoing debate about the future control of Gaza, it...
The Xiangshan Forum was held in Beijing in mid-September 2024, showcasing key Chinese concepts, such as the Global South, the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and China’s approach to conflict resolution through dialogue. Whereas China views the Forum as a success, many of the ideas presented were general and reflected a naïve view of the current global reality.
A recent FBI report reveals a Russian influence campaign targeting several countries, including the United States and Israel. The report highlights Russia’s attempts to sway Israeli public opinion, particularly during times of political upheavals, with the aim of encouraging support for its war against Ukraine. For the first time, it was publicly disclosed that the Arab population in Israel was also a target of Russian influence. The campaign utilized digital media and the creation of fake content, which was spread via social...
As we mark one year since the war that began on October 7, 2023, it has become evident that Israel’s leadership sees only perpetual war on the horizon. This ongoing conflict benefits Israel’s enemies and aligns with Iran’s strategy of promoting a prolonged, multi-front war of attrition against Israel until its eventual collapse. So far, Israel has relied primarily on military and security measures without incorporating political strategies that could turn military successes into meaningful strategic change. Therefore, Israel’s...
Arab states can help advance a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, an agreement for the release of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas, and an end to the war by adopting a resolute approach to Hamas. This approach, involving increased pressure, isolation, and delegitimization, should aim to undermine Hamas’s image and standing among the Arab public opinion. The proposed measures include media campaigns and public denunciations, legal sanctions, limitations on activity, and the promotion of an alternative religious discourse. These...
Over the past two years, the collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been touted as a very realistic possibility, given the Israeli government’s policy of implementing “facts on the ground”; that is, expanding the settlement enterprise in a way that is, for the most part, irreversible and undermines the already weak position of the PA. The collapse—or toppling—of the PA would set the Israeli–Palestinian process back more than 30 years and would place Israel in an immensely difficult situation in terms of international...
