The November 24, 2017 attack on al-Rawda mosque in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, apparently by Wilayat Sinai, a proxy of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Egypt, was the most deadly terrorist attack Egypt has ever known, killing more than 300 civilians and wounding over 100. Indeed, despite its military defeat in Iraq and Syria. it is clear that the Islamic State and its supporters seek to continue their activity in other locations around the world, including Egypt. Yet notwithstanding the complex nature of the current...
Since June 2017, Egypt has been dealing with a signficant rise in terror attacks in the Sinai Peninsula and inside Egypt by Sinai Province, the Islamic State affiliate. Improving the security situation in the country requires Cairo to overcome the challenges in shifting from its counterterrorism (CT) efforts to a counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign that will be focused on the local population in the Sinai. The Egyptian government is already taking its first steps in this direction on the military, economic, social, and political...
Events of recent weeks in both nearby and distant arenas have reshuffled the cards vis-à-vis the state of affairs in the Gaza Strip. The result has been the emergence of possible conditions for change – that is, if Israel takes advantage of them through cooperation with Egypt and the Gulf states. Recent developments have created circumstances and constraints for the actors in the arena that can potentially be leveraged as strategic opportunities to reshape the Gaza arena. Cooperation between Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf states,...
This essay deals with Hezbollah’s concept of deterrence against Israel as it developed over the ten years since the Second Lebanon War. The essay looks at the most important speeches by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah during this period to examine the evolution and development of the concept of deterrence at four points in time that reflect Hezbollah’s internal and regional milieu (2000, 2006, 2008, and 2011). Over the years, Nasrallah has frequently utilized the media to deliver his messages and promote the...
The Second Lebanon War broke out on July 12, 2006, without either Israel or Hezbollah intending this escalation. However, the abduction of IDF soldiers that day by a Hezbollah cell created a new reality in the north that prompted Israel to embark on a military operation, which ultimately became a war. The course of the war and its outcomes strongly affected subsequent internal and external Israeli, Lebanese, and regional processes. Hindsight provides an opportunity to examine the war and its ramifications from a broader and more...
At the close of three years since the announcement of the Islamic State, it is clear that al-Baghdadi’s gamble in declaring his establishment of an Islamic empire has failed, but his influence on the Salafi-jihad movement in the Middle East theater and other regions has grown. In order to prevent the strengthening of this movement, whose forces are spread throughout the world, a sober understanding is required of the intention of the Salafi-jihad movement to temporarily suspend the caliphate idea, and replace it with the...
Are the recent US strikes against the Islamic State, as well Russia’s permissive policy on airstrikes in Syria that cause mass civilian casualties and extensive harm to civilian infrastructures, evidence of a change in international standards in the fight against terrorist organizations and sub-state actors? A related question is: do the rules of engagement that apply to powers such as the United States and Russia also apply to other states confronting terrorism, such as Israel? How should Israel prepare for its next confrontation...
The terrorist attacks in the heart of Tehran pose a challenge to the Iranian regime, and require it to undertake a series of intelligence and operational measures in order to improve its ability to thwart further attacks. The Iranian leadership is trying to calm the public and reassure it of the regime’s ability to contain the events. While the Revolutionary Guards are expected to try to reinforce their capabilities (in part by obtaining an increased budget), it does not appear that this will be enough to alter the internal balance...
Egypt’s failure in fighting the Salafi-jihadi terrorism in the Sinai Peninsula and its movement into other parts of the country had led to a new stage in the fight against terror, characterized by mobilizing Bedouin tribes in Sinai to fight the Sinai Province in return for improving the economic situation and infrastructure in Sinai. Egypt also has increased its security cooperation with Israel. While the alliance with the Bedouin tribes has been made public, the cooperation with Israel does not receive similar recognition, and the...
Cyberthreats are a new and developing, complex phenomenon. A central way for decision makers to cope with this difficulty is through analogies as simplifying psychological constructs. One analogy that could be used is terrorism and specifically the terrorballistics experience in Israel. Building on this analogy, three main takeaways are suggested. The first takeaway is that key assumptions on the cybersecurity future should be revisited. The second one is the possibility of adapting the “six Ds” counterterror framework— Defense,...
Hamas’s new statement of principles, issued in early May 2017, is meant to challenge Fatah’s traditional control of the PLO in particular and the Palestinian national arena in general, and present a political approach rivaling that of PA head Mahmoud Abbas. The document is more political than ideological, and the essential difference between the updated statement of principles and the original Hamas charter is the weight given to the national Palestinian component versus the Islamic aspect. Hamas remains a terrorist organization that...
In mid April 2017, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke in the Knesset about the outbreak of Operation Protective Edge in 2014, contrary to the intentions and efforts of the government, and on Israel’s alternatives: the undesired political option (settlement with Hamas) and the military option not chosen (occupation of Gaza). The remarks take on particular relevance in view of today’s rapidly growing pressures in the Gaza Strip, and the increasing danger of a renewed outbreak of hostilities, which Israel does not want. In the...
