The possible normalization of Israel-Saudi relations is once again making headlines, following emerging signs of readiness in the United States to promote this matter. Progress depends on several variables, led by, relations between the US and Saudi Arabia, and relations between the US and Israel. Partial normalization between Jerusalem and Riyadh is possible in certain circumstances, even without a full Israeli-Palestinian political settlement, provided the Saudis receive what they consider to be due compensation from the United...
A part of the current regional detente between countries and organizations in the Middle East is the growing closeness between Saudi Arabia and Hamas, evidenced by the recent visit of Hamas leaders to the Kingdom and the release of Hamas prisoners held there. In principle, rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Hamas should not affect the normalization process, as long as Israel is perceived as a stable democratic actor that contributes to regional security and stability.
Key states in the region have recently demonstrated their clear preference for diplomacy and economics over the use of military and more coercive measures. Following a decade of armed struggles in various arenas, exhaustion has brought Arab and non-Arab states to work to thaw their relations, in order to improve their situation. This process, and its internal, regional, and global rationale, has implications for Israel in its struggle against Iran, its relations with the United States, and its normalization with Arab states.
Russia is known to figure prominently among economic and foreign policy considerations of Arab states, notwithstanding the failures of the Russian army in the war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on it. For the Arab Gulf states, Russia is primarily an essential partner for regulation of energy prices, influence over Iran, and leverage vis-à-vis the United States. Moscow for its part uses these Arab states’ need for close relations to enhance its presence and influence in the Middle East, and to reduce the isolation and toll of...
The trend toward rapprochement in the Middle East continues, with the expected renewal of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria. The regional détente process in various arenas changes Israel’s strategic environment and requires that it rethink what current regional architecture can better curb Iran.
The resilience of the Abraham Accords is challenged by policies of the Israeli government and the escalating violence in the Palestinian arena. The countries that signed agreements with Israel have an interest in upholding them, in parallel with developments in the Palestinian arena, in the expectation that the Israel will restore calm and stability. However, continued escalation has already drawn some of them, partly of necessity, to pay closer attention to Israeli policy toward the Palestinians, particularly in the Ramadan period....
Slowly but surely Saudi Arabia is proceeding with its nuclear program on various routes. The recent rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran has not significantly changed the basic facts in this context, including the Kingdom’s perception of the Iranian threat. In the not too distant future, tension could arise between Israel’s interest in oversight and restrictions on the program, because of the risks it entails, and the Israeli interest of promoting relations with the Kingdom. In spite of Israel’s ties with Saudi Arabia and their...
In a surprising announcement, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a resumption of relations (which were severed in 2016) and a return of ambassadors, which will take place in two months at the latest. The announcement was surprising both in its timing and in the identity of the mediator – China. The move reflects Beijing’s increased involvement in the Gulf and strengthens its position vis-à-vis the United States in the region. While the US administration welcomes the decline in tensions in the Gulf and seeks to continue efforts to...
Current Situation – States’ respective considerations on willingness to advance relations with Israel · Core components determine ability to progress | Current Israeli Strategy – Strengthen normalized relations and leverage the Abraham Accords toward additional relationships · Cultivate quiet relations with additional countries | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Conception that “what was is necessarily what will be” – positive linearity · Incomplete acknowledgment that the Palestinian issue impacts relations ·...
An analysis of public opinion polls conducted recently in 14 Arab countries shows that overall, the Arab public is primarily concerned with economic challenges, and views the Israeli-Palestinian issue as marginal. Such views – or despair, it concerns a bleak economic outlook – should not be overlooked because they can serve as a fertile ground for unrest. At the same time, and despite normalization processes with Israel, the refusal to recognize Israel and forge relations with it is widespread and creates potential barriers for...
The visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia, which included three summit meetings, moved relations between China and the Arab world at least one step forward. Alongside signed agreements and partnerships agreed on by both sides, the visit had a substantial symbolic side aimed at projecting independence, consolidating Saudi Arabia’s leading status among Arab states, and enabling Mohammed bin Salman to demonstrate his leadership to his people prior to his accession to the throne. The Gulf states may seem to overstate the...
