The results of the parliamentary elections in Lebanon reflect changes in the political map, in particular the weakening of the Hezbollah camp and the growing strength of its opponents. However, the opposition camp is still weak and divided, and thus the results do not enable it to form the stable and functioning government that Lebanon so desperately needs. While Hezbollah succeeded in maintaining its support in the Shiite sector, the weakness of its allies and the growing criticism of the organization present it with new challenges....
Lebanon is preparing to hold elections on May 15 for parliament, which is supposed to elect the country’s president this coming October. These are the first elections in Lebanon since the outbreak of the large-scale public protests in October 2019 and the state’s collapse due to the severe economic crisis. These events have led to political changes, chiefly the participation of many new independent parties, the breakup of the Sunni camp, and the weakening of Hezbollah’s partners in the March 8 camp, especially the...
It has become increasingly apparent that the domestic difficulties faced by Hezbollah exert growing influence on its behavior toward Israel. Along with restraining its military activity along the border in order to avoid military friction with Israel, the organization is waging a vigorous cognitive campaign to maintain the deterrence equation and to improve its public image as “the defender of Lebanon.” Hezbollah is constrained by rising domestic criticism of its role in Lebanon’s economic and political collapse,...
The economies of the Middle East are divided into high-income economies – those of Israel and the Gulf states – and poor/developing economies, with some states – Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen – suffering deep economic and political crises. The wealthy economies responded to the COVID-19 crisis with vaccinations for the majority of their populations and fiscal expansions, and global price increases are expected to lead to a moderate increase in inflation in these economies. The developing economies, however, have had difficulty...
The changes on the northern front, particularly the ongoing Iranian efforts to consolidate its presence there (even though this has been obstructed to some extent), the precision missiles and rockets project in Lebanon, and the worsening economic crisis in Lebanon and Syria highlight Israel’s need to adjust its policy to address the unfolding challenges more effectively. Israel’s campaign between wars continues to lead the efforts to stop Iran, but clearly this policy does not provide a full response to the challenges,...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The acute political crisis between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, joined by Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, is more bad news for the collapsing Lebanese state. Saudi Arabia initiated the crisis following a statement by the Lebanese Minister of Information, who is from the Hezbollah camp, opposing its war against the Houthis in Yemen, and Riyadh seems to have used this as an excuse to take action against Hezbollah and the new Lebanese government, which it controls. Saudi Arabia’s full disengagement from Lebanon, if the...
With Lebanon in a state of crisis, Hezbollah is acting determinedly and using all the means at its disposal to prevent a decline in its status. The struggle is currently focusing on the investigation into the explosion in Beirut Port in August 2020. Hezbollah seeks to obstruct this investigation, because it fears that it will be blamed; for their part, Hezbollah’s opponents are attempting to preserve the independence of Lebanon’s legal system. This is the background to the violent clash that broke out in Beirut on October...
After a delay of more than a year, a new government was formed in Lebanon, led by billionaire Najib Mikati. The government will be able to stem the collapse of Lebanon, which is in the midst of the worst crisis in the history of the country, only if it learns to advance the reforms demanded by the international community as a condition for the transfer of the billions of dollars that Lebanon desperately needs. But the composition of the government does not bode well for this objective, and it seems that the prospects for success are...
The clash on the Israel-Lebanon border on August 4-6, 2021 included unusual activity on both sides – the first Israeli air attack in Lebanon since 2013, following rocket fire against Israel, and 19 rockets fired at northern Israel by Hezbollah in response, in order to deter Israel from deviating from the balance of mutual deterrence. In effect, this clash was another link in a recent chain of hostilities between Israel and the “axis of resistance,” led by Iran. This careful and measured aggression by Hezbollah was...
At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...
The ongoing deterioration of Lebanon’s economy and the country’s political chaos have sharpened the dilemma of Israel’s new government as it formulates its policy on Lebanon. It appears that in any case, Israel should adopt a more proactive approach, rather than treating the negative consequences of events in Lebanon as preordained, especially in the extreme scenario of a total takeover by Hezbollah, which would turn the country into an Iranian sphere of influence, similar to Syria. Rescinding the sanctions against Iran...
