The continuation of the détente trend in the Middle East, coupled with the war between Israel and Hamas, is contributing to Israel’s isolation in the region. In this article, we assess the regional détente implications for Arab countries and highlight the importance of advancing normalization between Israel and these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence and that of its allies, which could endanger Israel.
Israel should maintain its traditional position of opposing the establishment of an independent nuclear fuel cycle in Saudi Arabia, given the negative strategic ramifications of such a move. Specifically, Israel should insist on applying the nuclear “gold standard,” as was the case with the United Arab Emirates. However, if the idea of Saudi Arabia obtaining the capability to enrich its uranium is acceptable to the Americans and if Israel has already given a green light to the move, in part as a step toward normalization of relations...
In an effort to advance normalization with Israel, Saudi Arabia faces muted but significant public opposition, which has been exacerbated following the war in Gaza. The popular rejection takes many forms: There is a religious dimension, which views a peace with Israel as contrary to Islamic law; a pro-Palestinian dimension, which regards opposition to normalization as a demonstration of support for the Palestinians; and a liberal perspective, which cautions that ties with Israel could empower the Saudi regime to further violate human...
As part of the preparations for “the day after” the war in the Gaza Strip, the United States aims to formulate a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and to involve Saudi Arabia in the Palestinian arena, including the Gaza Strip. Against this backdrop, and considering the time that has elapsed since the Arab Peace Initiative was issued as well as the increasing significance of the Palestinian issue in the Arab region, there is a need for a renewed and updated Arab peace initiative. A new initiative would bridge...
Analysis of the initiatives and regional outlines on the question of the post-war Gaza Strip indicates both considerable gaps between them and the official Israeli position but also possible areas of agreement. Examining the initiatives, some of which are no more than “trial balloons,” is the first and essential step toward realizing the objectives of the war in Gaza and shaping the situation for the day after. The main political and security gaps emerging at this stage concern the role of the Palestinian Authority in any permanent...
One of the challenges that Israel faces when it comes to formulating strategy – regarding both the war and the “day after” – is its policy toward Qatar. While the connection between Qatar and Hamas harms Israel’s fundamental interests, Qatar, thanks to this very connection, serves other Israeli interests and may well play a role in the reconstruction of Gaza after the war. Israel must examine its ties with Qatar and create effective leverage – direct and indirect – and in any event, prepare to deal with the Qatari dilemma after the...
With the exception of Qatar, the Gulf states share the goal of ending Hamas’s control of the Gaza Strip, weakening the Iranian-led axis, and dealing a blow to Muslim Brotherhood ideology. However, their main priority is to safeguard the regional detente achieved in recent years, especially vis-à-vis Iran. Therefore, the risks that a regional conflict entail could propel them to prefer a quick end to the conflict over the benefit that could accrue from defeating Hamas. Regarding “the day after,” it is possible they would be willing to...
In the framework of the regional initiative promoted by the US administration, Saudi Arabia hopes to sign a defense pact with the United States. A strengthened US commitment to an important ally such as Saudi Arabia and an increased US military presence in the Middle East are clearly in Israel’s interest. Therefore, Israel should not have a serious problem with a US security commitment to the Kingdom, including a defense pact between the two countries. However, Jerusalem should try to guarantee that a robust defense pact will obviate...
The policy of the Israeli government in the Palestinian arena and domestic pressure on the Royal House of Bahrain challenge realization of the potential of the bilateral relations. Bahrain’s benefit from the normalization does not live up to the expectations, at least in the economic aspect. Therefore, if this has not already occurred, contacts are likely to stagnate.
The Palestinian issue is expected to command a more central role in the talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel on normalization, compared to earlier assessments or expectations by the Israeli government. Three main reasons account for this: the importance of the issue for Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Arab-Muslim world; the demands that the Biden administration is expected to present to Israel to preserve the two-state option; and the understanding by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that he will gain more than he...
President Biden is examining options for promoting a groundbreaking regional move in the Middle East, which will focus primarily on normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel in exchange for an Israeli commitment to take certain steps on the Palestinian issue and United States approval of a series of significant Saudi demands, including a defense pact, a civilian nuclear program, and advanced weapon systems. New in this dynamic is the apparent greater willingness of the administration to accommodate Saudi demands. The actual...
Relations between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have deteriorated recently. Underlying the disputes between these two countries, which pursue a pragmatic approach toward Israel, whether publicly or behind the scenes, are considerations of prestige and status in the regional and international arenas. The “awakening” Saudi Arabia has an interest in reestablishing what it sees as its preferred status over the UAE, which in recent years has enjoyed improved regional and international standing. While disputes between Abu Dhabi...
