A campaign is underway between Israel and Hezbollah over air control in the skies of Lebanon and northern Israel, which the organization expanded to Israel’s exclusive economic zone when it launched three unmanned aerial vehicles toward the Israeli drilling rig in the Karish gas field. Israel should consider leveraging the current struggle in the aerial dimension and respond to Hezbollah’s provocation by striking the Iranian air defense systems in Lebanon that were supplied to the organization. This would signal to the...
March 2022 marked 11 years since the start of the civil war in Syria, which ended with a bitter defeat for the opposition and a “hollow victory” for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The war changed the face of Syria: it is now split into four regions, each under the influence of foreign forces; an economic crisis is ongoing, with no signs of a solution; the humanitarian situation is grave; many refugees have fled the country and many displaced persons remain in its territory; there is a long-term presence of foreign actors; and the...
The economies of the Middle East are divided into high-income economies – those of Israel and the Gulf states – and poor/developing economies, with some states – Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen – suffering deep economic and political crises. The wealthy economies responded to the COVID-19 crisis with vaccinations for the majority of their populations and fiscal expansions, and global price increases are expected to lead to a moderate increase in inflation in these economies. The developing economies, however, have had difficulty...
The changes on the northern front, particularly the ongoing Iranian efforts to consolidate its presence there (even though this has been obstructed to some extent), the precision missiles and rockets project in Lebanon, and the worsening economic crisis in Lebanon and Syria highlight Israel’s need to adjust its policy to address the unfolding challenges more effectively. Israel’s campaign between wars continues to lead the efforts to stop Iran, but clearly this policy does not provide a full response to the challenges,...
Israeli intelligence figures have presented optimistic assessments about stopping Iranian entrenchment in Syria and the ability to drive a wedge between President Bashar al-Assad and Tehran. However, Israel is still far from achieving its strategic objective of driving Iranian forces and proxies out of Syria and restricting Iran’s influence in the country, and the expectation that Assad and Russia will do the work for it is mistaken. Assad does not have the power to force Iran to leave Syria, and there is no other entity that can...
In February 2019, on the eve of the dissolution of the 20th Knesset and the first of the recurring elections that paralyzed the political system in Israel, MK (and today Minister of Public Security) Omer Bar Lev and I issued a report about the ground forces, the need to decide about their role in military campaigns, and on that basis, the ensuing plans for military buildup. In the years prior we headed the two relevant subcommittees of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee – I was the head of the Subcommittee on Defense Doctrine...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
A decade of fighting in Syria showed that the primary potential threat to the Assad regime is internal, not a conflict with Israel. The Syrian military is therefore being rebuilt as a motorized infantry army, capable of moving combatants quickly to various areas around the country. At the same time, there is an operational need to improve defense against airstrikes, mainly by Israel. However, the deep ongoing economic crisis; the continued fighting inside Syria, which commands attention and resources; the competition between Russia...
In early July 2021, the UN Security Council approved the extension of activity at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing for another year. Bab al-Hawa is the sole remaining crossing for the transfer of humanitarian aid to the Idlib region, which is not under the control of the Assad regime. Russia’s rare consent to extend the activity at the crossing could be evidence of its now being willing to cooperate with the Biden administration. Israel should take advantage of the international attention (albeit limited) on aid to Syria and the first...
At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...
Leading Arab states, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, have hesitated thus far to normalize their relations with the Assad regime, conditioning this step on Syria’s progress toward a political solution based on Security Council Resolution 2254. However, with President Biden’s entry into the White House and the accelerated negotiations between the US administration and Iran in the background, a change in the Saudi position on Syria seems possible, including based on reports of Riyadh’s contacts with Iran. Renewed relations with...
March 2021 marked ten years of a civil war in Syria that has left a shattered and destroyed country, with most of the population displaced within and outside the state and, with many on the brink of starvation, suffering an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. One of the main factors driving the internal revolt against the Bashar al-Assad regime was climate change and an ensuing drought, which highlighted both the regime’s failure in managing natural resources and its neglect of the agricultural sector. The climate trends that preceded...
