The current war in Ukraine is followed closely by many people throughout the world. The fog of war typical of past wars is strikingly absent this time, thanks to the enormous quantity of open-source information from the battlefield streaming over the internet in real time. Although the war is far from over, at this stage it is already possible to see how the use of open-source intelligence (OSINT), based on commercial capabilities, knowledge-sharing communities on social media, and artificial intelligence tools developed in the...
Economic and political isolation has pushed Russia and Iran to strengthen the cooperation between them. The closer relationship between these countries has both military and economic dimensions and is reflected in their new level of cooperation in the war in Syria, which reached new heights in recent months with Iran’s decision to support Russia in its war in Ukraine. Iran has sold Russia many hundreds of drones – reflecting cooperation of the highest order – and Russia’s use of these weapons have already caused enormous damage to...
President Putin’s decision to annex four regions of Ukraine and his definition of his struggle against the Western elites as an existential struggle, while avowing his determination to defend the annexed territories and making implicit threats about the possibility of using unconventional weapons, significantly increase the risk of escalation. Consequently, the United States and its allies are now at a crossroads. It seems that Russia’s conduct will compel them to formulate a follow-up strategy that will heighten the...
The meeting in Sochi on August 5, 2022 between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, not long after their meeting in Tehran at the Astana Forum, reflects deepening cooperation between Moscow and Ankara. Moscow needs Ankara, partly in order to limit the negative economic ramifications of the war in Ukraine, but also to further weaken NATO from within. For its part, Ankara needs Moscow because of Russian influence in what it sees as main conflict zones– Syria, the Caucasus, and Libya, and given...
Before the war, the Russian economy was projected to grow by 10.3% between 2020 and 2023. Following the outbreak of the warfare, the IMF projected that the Russian economy will contract in this period by 6.3%, yet recently the projected contraction was moderated to 5%.
The visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran – the first such visit since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 – offered the three leaders an opportunity to demonstrate their partnership against the West and discuss the challenges they face domestically, regionally, and internationally. Iran viewed the summit as a chance to tighten its strategic relations with the Kremlin, in part in response to the idea of a regional defense alliance led by Washington. Russia...
The West’s goal in the campaign in Ukraine is still the prevention of a Russian victory and the guarantee that Ukraine does not lose. To this end, the United States administration is leading an international effort to upgrade substantially the quality and speed of heavy arms transfers to Ukraine. At the same time, it is clear to the West that despite Russia’s failure so far to achieve its original goals in the war, President Putin does not intend to retreat. It is therefore likely that the US administration and European...
The Russia-Ukraine War, underway for two months, continues in full force. Negotiations between the countries, held until about two weeks ago, achieved certain agreements. However, Russia announced the second stage of the invasion, which began on April 19, and it seems that the negotiations will not be renewed in the coming weeks. This raises the question of how the campaign will continue and what might influence its end and its results. At this stage it seems that the end of the war will be determined in the coming weeks in...
One of the key aspects of the war that Russia imposed on Ukraine is the surprising level of steadfastness among the Ukrainian civilian front, which prevents Russia from realizing its military advantage and determining the outcome of the war. The civilian home front in Ukraine was rebuilt after Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, and it functions remarkably well based on the general mobilizing of recruits and volunteering of civilians for a variety of national and local missions, including combat, in the territorial...
Less than two weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin at the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The display of unity left an impression in the West of the emergence of a new axis facing the United States. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine put China in a problematic position, in which the West considers it a partner in an “axis of evil,” or at least responsible for the continuation of this axis. This article examines the possible lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war...
While most Western countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority remained silent. The Palestinians regard the Ukrainian struggle against the invasion as competing with them for international attention. They are frustrated that their struggle is cast by many as terrorism, while the struggle in Ukraine is treated as a just war for freedom. The Palestinians have accordingly neither expressed any public empathy for the Ukrainians nor demonstrated any solidarity with...
The war in Ukraine marks a new climax in the public use of intelligence by states. The United States, the UK, and even the government of Ukraine have revealed intelligence information and assessments about Russia’s intentions and plans before and during the invasion. On the political level, the revelations contributed to shape a narrative that clearly marked Putin as an aggressor and Ukraine as a victim, and thus contributed to the consolidation of a strong and unified front against Russia. On the strategic level, the early...
