In the coming year, the countries of Europe will face a series of tests, the results of which are liable to destabilize the European frameworks, especially the European Union (EU) and NATO, upon which they relied since recovering from two destructive World Wars, the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and the consequences of the latter’s disintegration in the late twentieth century.
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) recently held its annual conference, which was attended by statesmen, military commanders, media figures, and political and security experts from Israel and abroad. As true of any conference of this type, many divergent opinions were expressed on a range of topics. They sketched a complex picture of Israel’s current situation and the challenges it can expect to face in 2017. Based on the mosaic of opinions presented at the conference, several distinct, unambiguous trends...
“There is no one to sign an agreement that would dramatically change reality,” Liberman said at at a conference hosted by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “What’s needed is strong leadership who enjoys support on the ground, but [Abbas] is not a legitimate leader,” he said. The defense minister further charged that Israel previously offered Abbas “half of Jerusalem, the evacuation of the West Bank and to re-open talks regarding the issue of refugees.” Liberman’s speech at the INSS conference came hours...
Donald Trump’s victory, which surprised the media and pollsters alike, has created a great deal of uncertainty for both the American people and their allies in Israel. Many in Jerusalem see the Trump administration as an opportunity to restore the special relationship between Israel and the United States, its most important and irreplaceable ally. At the same time, many of their American coreligionists are worried about the negative consequences of Trump’s victory: the zeitgeist he has cultivated, threats to their safety, and the...
The election of Donald Trump heralds a change in United States policy, and relations with China are emerging as a major focus of the new administration. It appears that each side is seeking to identify the other’s weaknesses during a mutually sensitive transition period, and to maximize benefits through brinkmanship. Yet it is possible that Trump will heed the advice of the State Department and strive for calm between the two powers and seek to settle their differences constructively. For Israel, the rising tensions between the...
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House, there are growing indications of likely changes in United States policy regarding Russia. There are three possible scenarios in this context: (a) continuation of the Obama administration’s policy, i.e., continuing and even heightening the tension between Moscow and Washington in the Middle East theater; (b) changes in the new administration’s policy toward Russia, while moving carefully toward reciprocal concessions. It is likely that this will ease the tension...
While the challenge regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict posed by US Secretary of State John Kerry on December 28, 2016 was directed primarily at Israel, it was also aimed at the Palestinians. Kerry called on the sides to accept six basic negotiations principles that were adopted by the Obama administration toward a permanent status agreement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There is little in the Israeli toolbox to thwart the possibility that Kerry’s principles may be accepted at the forthcoming peace conference in Paris...
This article will touch upon two main components of the United States’ cybersphere and cyber warfare. First, it will review three cyber incidents during different time periods, as the US infrastructure, mechanisms, and policies were gradually evolving. It will analyze the conceptual, operational, and legislative evolution that led to the current decision-making paradigm and institutional structure of the US cybersphere. Secondly, the paper will examine the procedures and policies of the Intelligence Community (IC), and the US cyber...
This essay focuses on jointness in intelligence. New ways of thinking over the past years have led to the breakdown of the compartmentalizing of intelligence organizations and have given rise to models of jointness within intelligence organizations, military forces, and civilian entities so that they can carry out complex missions. This essay surveys the theoretical and practical development of the concept of jointness and presents four archetypes of jointness, based on several Israeli and American case histories.
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
Israel-United States relations, a key element in Israel’s regional and international status, are discussed in this article. This essay focuses on the bilateral relations at the end of Barack Obama’s presidency, and the challenges they will encounter in the Trump administration. The article looks at the changes that are likely in US foreign policy, particularly regarding the Middle East. Although Israel is not connected directly to the active US involvement in the region, it will necessarily be influenced by new US policy. In any...
The articles focus on the crisis between the superpowers that intensified over the past year due to the ongoing war in Syria. The issue is analyzed from the American perspective, notes that while the incoming United States President, Donald Trump, charts his Middle East policy, particularly regarding the fight against the Islamic State, he will have to devise a grand strategy for US foreign policy. As part of this policy framework, Trump will have to choose how much weight the Middle East should command within that strategy as...
