The Palestinian political system is currently mired in a deep crisis owing to a host of intertwined and mutually reinforcing factors. The focal point is the crisis pertaining to the Gaza Strip and the serious deterioration there over the past year. In the current reality, there is no magic formula on the horizon to dispel the political, security, and humanitarian problems of the Strip and counter their negative implications for Israel’s relations with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian political system is keenly mindful...
Each of the nearly eight years of civil war in Syria has been characterized by a central phenomenon or trend that influenced the development of the war and the future of the country. What began as a civil uprising in 2011 against the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad developed in 2012-2013 to a sectarian struggle of rebel organizations opposing the Assad regime, which is supported by Iran and Hezbollah. In 2014 the splits among the rebel factions continued along distinct sectarian and religious lines, with the dominance of...
After a string of achievements in the Middle East and the start of an economic recovery following the removal of the sanctions, Iran was confronted in 2018 with growing external and domestic challenges. These challenges undermine the strategic stability that was the basis for Iranian policy in recent years, particularly since the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) was achieved.
These challenges are evident in all the areas relevant to Iran’s strategic situation. In the internal arena, the ongoing...
Three years after the JCPOA was implemented in mid-January 2016, two major developments are particularly noteworthy: the new approach toward Iran and the nuclear deal adopted by US President Trump, culminating with his decision to leave the JCPOA in May 2018, and efforts exerted by Iran to ensure that the deal remains intact. Whether and how there will be a willingness on the part of the regime to return to the negotiating table is an open question, but in any case, two major problems related to the JCPOA that arose over the course...
For the United States, which still has interests in the Middle East, a hasty withdrawal of forces from Syria weakens its influence on processes in the region and limits its room to maneuver in the face of existing challenges. The US administration leaves its allies with question marks regarding US ability to back their policies, and at the same time, heightens Iran’s motivation to strengthen its grip and influence in the area. Israel remains alone in its campaign against Iranian entrenchment in Syria, and at most will receive...
The wave of protests that erupted in December 2017-January 2018 in dozens of cities in Iran ebbed after about two weeks, but continued – albeit with less intensity and on a smaller scale – throughout the year. The continuation of the protests reflects the intensity of public frustration that has grown against the background of a deteriorating economic situation and the widening gap between the public and the regime; it is further fed by the citizens’ growing distrust of the political establishment and its failure to provide solutions...
Over the past six months, cyber security firms and technology companies have exposed extensive Iranian cognitive-related activity in cyberspace aimed primarily at the American public, with Iran’s seeking to exacerbate internal US debates between different social groups. Iran’s influence efforts in cyberspace reflect the importance Tehran attributes to the ideological struggle at home and against its external enemies, first and foremost the United States. In the regime’s eyes, the United States, in addition to its political and...
On December 4, 2018, the IDF launched Operation Northern Shield to destroy Hezbollah’s cross-border tunnels between Israel and Lebanon. The operation, following intelligence surveillance of a number of years. is underway via a well thought-out plan that combines intelligence exposure, engineering-based targeted action, and cognitive and diplomatic activity, all of which demonstrate clearly to Lebanon in general and Hezbollah in particular the aims and scope of the operation. The goal is both to minimize the risk of misunderstanding...
The second round of United States sanctions on Iran began in early November 2018, with what President Donald Trump described as “the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed.” The current phase of sanctions is intended to upset the oil market, Iran’s primary source of revenue. Thus, the effectiveness of the sanctions will be measured largely by the scale of the revenues the Iranians collect from their oil. It also depends on the ability of the United States to bring the scale of Iranian oil exports to...
Broad economic warfare encompasses a host of actions aimed at damaging or threatening to damage the economy of an enemy or rival, with the aim of pressuring or weakening it in order to achieve strategic aims. Broad economic warfare encompasses standard economic warfare (such as sanctions), kinetic warfare, and cyber warfare against an enemy’s economy.
The cyber era has changed the realm of broad economic warfare. From an offensive perspective, cyber capabilities make it possible to damage the enemy economy both during wartime and...
The ongoing attempts to upset the Iranian efforts to arm Hezbollah with advanced weapons, whether through kinetic attacks in Syria, diplomatic activity, or clandestine operations in Syria and Lebanon, show the difficulty in deterring enemies from force buildup. The repeated intelligence disclosures about the project for manufacturing precision-guided missiles in Lebanon and the public statements on the matter have failed to halt the project and remove the threat against Israel. Thus if this is indeed a genuine strategic threat to...
Recently published testimonies by Iranian clerics reflect their concern over the ongoing erosion of their public status, and offer a glimpse into the population’s growing alienation from them. Although this is not a new phenomenon, coverage of the issue in the Iranian media attests to its dimensions and the increased awareness within the religious establishment of its possible implications. As the Islamic Revolution approaches its fortieth anniversary, religion’s influence on Iranian society is waning and public confidence in the...
