The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
The announcement by Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas that general elections would be held for the three Palestinian national institutions prompts various questions. Along with widespread hope for intra-Palestinian renewal and reconciliation, there are doubts that improvement would be possible after the elections, given the coronavirus crisis, public distrust of both political leaderships – Fatah and Hamas, and inter-organizational suspicion. Above all, the question is where Abbas is heading, as he took on extensive powers...
While Israel is a leader in coronavirus vaccination efforts and by early February had vaccinated close to one third of its population with at least one dose, the Palestinian Authority has failed to obtain enough vaccines for its population. From here emerges the dilemma for the Israeli government whether to provide Palestinians with vaccines at the expense of vaccinations for the Israeli population. In Area C in the West Bank, which is controlled by Israel, about a quarter of a million Palestinians live alongside Israelis; some...
Israel’s enemies are aware of its strength, preoccupied with their own domestic problems, and eager to avoid escalation. However, war in 2021 is possible – in the northern arena and Gaza – following a “dynamic of escalation.” In a war, the IDF would employ lethal offensive capabilities on the ground, in the air, at sea, and in the cyber realm, and inflict considerable damage on its enemies. But in such a war, Israel would likely face massive surface-to-surface missile and rocket fire on the home front, and attacks...
2021 brings hope for the Palestinian political system, which sustained a series of severe blows over the past year: the “Trump plan”; the nullification of Palestinian veto power over normalization between Israel and Arab countries; the COVID-19 pandemic; economic and social crises. The Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip has chosen to reach understandings with Israel regarding a period of temporary calm, in order to improve the humanitarian, health, and infrastructural situation. Consequently, for now, the organization is...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
After starting as the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process in February 2015, Nickolay Mladenov influenced the Israeli-Palestinian arena a great deal, working diligently to advance understandings and improve the reality on the ground, including in an effort to forge an arrangement between Israel and the Gaza Strip. Mladenov’s balanced and pragmatic approach, which holds that conditions must be built from the bottom up to shape the reality of two states for two peoples, is appropriate in the current...
On December 28, 2020 a joint military exercise of the armed resistance organizations in the Gaza Strip was held. Led by Hamas, participants included 13 other organizations, including Islamic Jihad and groups of former Fatah members. In the large-scale exercise, rockets were launched toward the sea, attacks occurred on simulated IDF positions and included abductions of soldiers, and drones and other technologies were displayed. The exercise took place against the backdrop of a severe crisis in Gaza caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the...
“The day after” Abu Mazen need not differ from “the day before,” but that largely depends on Israel. First, Israel must ensure the stability in the public and economic realms in the West Bank that has enabled the relative calm in the region for more than a decade. Biden’s tenure may likewise help stabilize the Palestinian system in the context of “the day after.” The impending turnover in Washington has already inspired calm and cautious optimism in Ramallah. However, the future will also...
The Palestinian system has been going through a process of critical reassessment for several months. There have been some attempts at rapprochement between the two principal camps – Fatah on the one hand, and Hamas and the other factions on the other. The most recent catalyst behind such efforts was the normalization agreement between Israel and the UAE, which was interpreted as a withdrawal of the Arab support for the strategy underlying the Palestinians’ national struggle against Israel. In turn, the Palestinian camps are trying to...
