Current Situation – High-level enrichment · Thousands of advanced centrifuges · Limited inspection · Fissile material for 4 devices within 1 month · Continued regional subversion · Challenges of legitimacy and countermeasures | Current Israeli Strategy – Reject renewed JCPOA · Advocate “longer & stronger” agreement · Create credible military threat · Attack in Syria against regional subversion | Recommended Strategy – Expand cooperation with the US to improve the military option · Build a political...
In an interview in Haaretz on January 1, 2023, Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, former head of Military Intelligence and currently Managing Director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), stated that the Israeli strategy that sought (and seeks) to fell the nuclear agreement with Iran has failed, and that the last three Prime Ministers of Israel pursued this aim without presenting an alternative program. Israel, the United States, and other countries succeeded only in postponing or slowing the progress of the Iranian...
Economic and political isolation has pushed Russia and Iran to strengthen the cooperation between them. The closer relationship between these countries has both military and economic dimensions and is reflected in their new level of cooperation in the war in Syria, which reached new heights in recent months with Iran’s decision to support Russia in its war in Ukraine. Iran has sold Russia many hundreds of drones – reflecting cooperation of the highest order – and Russia’s use of these weapons have already caused enormous damage to...
The protest in Iran, entering its fourth month, has apparently thus far not succeeded in posing a significant and immediate threat to the regime. The scope of the violent demonstrations has narrowed, significant social sectors have not joined the protest, and there is no evidence of rifts among the political elite or the security and repression forces, led by the Revolutionary Guards. However, this does not mean that the regime has succeeded in suppressing the protest and that the situation will revert to what it was. Occasional...
Over the past two years, about 13 terrorist attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) against Israeli and Jewish targets were publicly revealed and foiled on four continents. In addition, attempts to attack former senior officials in the US administration and Iranian opposition targets in New York and London were thwarted. These events point to Iran’s focused activity in the use of terrorism in the international arena without being deterred by the results of this activity. Prominent in these events is the use of...
While the international system, led by the United States, is preoccupied with the tension with China and the war in Ukraine, Iran has taken escalation measures in its nuclear program, is aiding Russia by selling drones to attack critical infrastructure in Ukraine, and continues to suppress and even kill people protesting against the regime. Under these circumstances, the chances of continuing the dialogue with the Iranian regime and consequently also of returning to the nuclear agreement are very slim, even if the sides are not in a...
After a year of political upheaval marked by internal conflict among the Shiites in Iraq, the success of the pro-Iranian Shiite camp in forming a government without the camp’s main rival, Muqtada Sadr, is a source of satisfaction to pro-Iranian parties and militias in Iraq, as well as the Iranian regime. However, just as the road to the formation of the government was riddled with hurdles and political and economic problems that have not yet been resolved, the reality facing the new government is challenging, and has the potential...
The fighting in Ukraine presents an opportunity for many countries, including Israel, to draw military-related lessons. Inter alia, the Russian attack in October 2022 using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones should be an important lesson for the IDF and decision makers in Israel. Over the past decade, drones, including various kinds of attack drones, have turned from exclusive weapons in the hands of very few countries to widespread weapons that are also in the hands of failed and rogue states and non-state organizations. In view of...
In recent weeks, public debate in Iran has resumed regarding the possibility of transferring power after the death of the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to his son Mojtaba. In the background of this debate is criticism of the idea of cultivating Mojtaba as a possible successor, sounded by the leader of the reformist opposition, Mir-Hossein Mousavi; a report on the promotion of Mojtaba to a high religious status with the rank of ayatollah; and an expression of support for his possible appointment as leader from one of the...
The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran’s demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the...
The threat of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has recently figured in the headlines, following UAVs launched by Hezbollah in July 2022 aimed at the Israel natural gas platform in the Karish field, reports of a Hamas project to develop UAVs, a UAV attack against the American al-Tanf base in Syria, and reports that Russia has purchased Iranian UAVs. Such an arsenal in hostile hands constitutes a mounting threat to Israel. Assuming that UAVs, especially offensive ones, will join any high-trajectory fire against Israel, new thinking...
