Another exchange of blows in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Islamic Jihad ended with Egyptian mediation. Israel once again initiated a military operation, seizing an opportunity to attack senior Islamic Jihad figures, while allowing Hamas, which in practice rules the Gaza Strip, to avoid responsibility for what occurs there. Militarily, Israel saw operational success, both offensively and defensively. However, politically, Israel allowed Hamas to set the rules of the game, continue to enjoy the fruits of its arrangement with...
A part of the current regional detente between countries and organizations in the Middle East is the growing closeness between Saudi Arabia and Hamas, evidenced by the recent visit of Hamas leaders to the Kingdom and the release of Hamas prisoners held there. In principle, rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Hamas should not affect the normalization process, as long as Israel is perceived as a stable democratic actor that contributes to regional security and stability.
The escalation in multiple arenas over the course of Passover demonstrated the convergence of the Palestinian resistance axis, which relies on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with the Iran-Hezbollah axis. The timing of the escalation is also directly connected to the internal crisis in Israel, and reflects increased temerity by Israel’s enemies and their attempt to test whether its resilience has narrowed to the extent that they have an opportunity to change the deterrence equation. In light of the confluence of these elements,...
The resilience of the Abraham Accords is challenged by policies of the Israeli government and the escalating violence in the Palestinian arena. The countries that signed agreements with Israel have an interest in upholding them, in parallel with developments in the Palestinian arena, in the expectation that the Israel will restore calm and stability. However, continued escalation has already drawn some of them, partly of necessity, to pay closer attention to Israeli policy toward the Palestinians, particularly in the Ramadan period....
The State of Israel is now engulfed in an unprecedented and perilous set of circumstances. While Iran is on the nuclear threshold and the Palestinian arena is on the brink of wide escalation, Israel itself is racing toward the brink of passing fateful legislation that would reshape its governing system. Israel’s enemies watch with satisfaction, drawing confidence and daring toward new levels of brinksmanship, which could easily lead to escalation and possibly war. For Israel to cross the legislative threshold from the current reality...
Thirty years after the Oslo Accords and more than twenty years after the Arab Peace Initiative, the consistency of the official Palestinian and Arab position, on the need for a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on two states, should be emphasized. The alternatives frequently presented in Israel as “managing the conflict” and “limiting the conflict” are mere euphemisms for aggravating the existing situation. These alternatives are presented by one side only, since clearly they will earn no Palestinian or...
Current Situation – Following escalation in the West Bank in 2022, volatility has increased · Weaker PA · Hamas has grown stronger | Current Israeli Strategy – New government’s policy lines depart from the strategy that prevailed until now · Postpone weighty decisions · Maintain a calm security situation for as long as possible | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Focus on conflict management with no effort toward a future agreement · Palestinian burden on Israel increases · Time is a critical vector in the slide toward a...
The deadly terrorist attack in Jerusalem on Friday evening, January 27, 2023, marked an escalation in recent Palestinian terrorism. Continuation of such incidents is fed by two cycles: the cycle of terrorism – the more the IDF increases its operations against terrorist infrastructure, the more the motivation of young Palestinians increases to engage in armed acts of resistance; and the cycle of weakening of the Palestinian Authority – the more the wave of terrorism rises, the more the PA loses its monopoly on the use of force, its...
While a change in the incarceration policy of security prisoners is required, broad and serious consequences may accompany any change: the issue of prisoners is central in the Palestinian discourse and on the Palestinian agenda, both among the public and in the Palestinian Authority. Therefore, Israel must consider its strategic goal regarding the Palestinian arena, and on this basis build a complete set of measures and policies, with the incarceration policy an integral element. All this must be subject to the involvement of the...
In late December, the UN General Assembly asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for its opinion on the legality of the “ongoing Israeli occupation.” The opinion will likely include critical statements about the illegality of Israel’s conduct in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and about its “annexation” moves. Harsh assertions by the Court could significantly damage Israel’s foreign relations, be used as ammunition by the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, and even possibly...
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) recently held a war game, which simulated hypothetical events if/when Minister Ben-Gvir visits the Temple Mount again, as he did on January 3, 2023. According to the scenario, at the end of the visit severe violence broke out between Jews and Palestinians, leading to the deaths of two Jews and 19 Palestinians, with dozens wounded on both sides. Among the key insights that emerged from the game: (1) Events on the Temple Mount are influenced by the rhetoric of Israeli politicians and...
