Summary of the Results
The Israeli public’s assessment of the likely damage to Iran as a result of the campaign has continued to decline. While in the first days of the campaign, 69% of respondents estimated that the regime would be significantly harmed, only 43.5% think so today. A similar decline is evident regarding the expected damage to Iran’s nuclear project. At the start of the campaign, 62.5% believed it would be significantly harmed compared to 48% today. The same applies to the ballistic missile array: The percentage of...
Syria, under Ahmed al-Sharaa’s leadership, is not a direct party to the war between the United States and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other. At the same time, it is neither neutral nor passive. Although Syria is not directly involved in the fighting, Damascus has demonstrated extensive diplomatic activity as it seeks to exploit the regional crisis to distance itself from the Iranian axis, reintegrate into the regional system, and present itself as a constructive and valuable actor. At the same time, Syria is reinforcing...
Although we are currently in the midst of a war and do not yet know how it will end, the US negotiations initiative—which may bring the campaign to an end—requires a clear definition of Israel’s interest regarding the Iranian nuclear project.
The conclusion of Operation Roaring Lion will place Israel and the international community before a new strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran. The regime in Tehran, if it survives the war, may—after experiencing systemic trauma and damage to its senior leadership—adopt a national security doctrine...
Over the past several decades, China has established itself as a global power in the political, economic, and military arenas, while advancing a broad strategic vision and its own set of global interests. The expansion of its international influence and its strategic development plans has increased both its security needs and its defense capabilities. Accordingly, recent years have seen a steady rise in China’s defense budget alongside significant military development. One of the central tools through which China promotes its force...
Israel, since October 7, has been trapped in a conception of “absolute security” that drives it toward continuous war. If security is defined as the complete removal of every threat already in its earliest stages of emergence, and even more so when it is clear and tangible—rather than its reduction or the construction of a stabilizing political framework—then almost any other outcome of conflict will be perceived as insufficient, any arrangement as surrender, and any achievement as partial and therefore a failure.
Against this...
The developing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz positions the strait as one of the central arenas of friction in the current conflict and as a focal point of a crisis with global implications. A sustained disruption of traffic in the strait, even without a full closure, is not merely a tactical move but a broader blow to the international order. Its strategic importance and unique status expand the arena of friction beyond the direct parties to the current conflict. This means that the struggle over freedom of passage in the strait is...
The war with Iran has intensified debate in the United States over Israel’s role in American foreign policy and the future of the US–Israel relationship. While the conflict is unlikely to fundamentally transform Israel’s standing in the United States, it appears poised to accelerate trends already underway: growing partisan polarization, declining support for Israel among Democrats and younger Americans, and the emergence of dissenting voices within the Republican coalition. These dynamics risk shifting the US–Israel relationship...
Hezbollah’s decision to open an additional front against Israel after the attack on Iran was meant not only to relieve the military pressure on Iran but also to strengthen the organization’s own standing at a time when it has been weakened militarily and politically and is facing growing criticism at home and abroad. Hezbollah is now waging a war of survival, seeking to shift the balance of power with the IDF and improve its position within Lebanon. It is doing so by employing its full arsenal of missiles, rockets, and UAVs and by...
Iran’s strategic communications effort in Operation Roaring Lion reflects an integrated strategy of military action, information warfare, and advanced technologies aimed at influencing domestic, regional, and international audiences. The current campaign reflects an advanced stage in the evolution of Iranian doctrine, which has shifted from religious-ideological propaganda to operational, multidimensional information warfare. This article examines Iran’s main patterns of operation, including the use of missiles and UAVs as a...
In recent years, the integration of artificial intelligence into defense systems has evolved from a decision-support tool into a strategic infrastructure shaping the conduct of war. Within this trend, the Pentagon’s adoption of the AI-First doctrine marks a significant conceptual shift from the limited integration of artificial intelligence systems to a systemic approach in which AI becomes a foundational component in the chain of command, in intelligence collection and analysis, and in the planning of multi-theater operations. This...
Summary of the Results
The Israeli public continues to support Operation Roaring Lion, with a majority (78.5%) backing the Israeli–American strikes on Iran—a level similar to that measured at the start of the campaign (80.5%). In addition, 60% of the public is highly satisfied with the military achievements in Iran, comparable to the level recorded about two weeks into the war. Nonetheless, there has been a decline in support for continuing the campaign until the regime collapses: 54% of the public believes the fighting should...
The war with Iran has placed the Gulf states, against their will, at the heart of the confrontation. Iran identified the Gulf states as an “underbelly” and potential lever of pressure on the United States to shorten the duration of the campaign. Nevertheless, despite the Iranian attacks on their territory, they have thus far refrained from openly joining the campaign and have preferred a cautious policy: allowing other forces to operate from their territory while undertaking limited offensive actions with plausible deniability. This...
