Policy Papers

The talks that began in April 2025 between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff—with Oman’s mediation—are bringing Iran, the United States, and Israel closer to critical moments regarding the future of Iran’s nuclear program. The results of the negotiations will largely determine whether the direction will be toward a political-diplomatic settlement on the nuclear issue or toward a military strike (Israeli, American, or joint) against Iran’s nuclear facilities. At this...

After approximately a year and a half of war in the Gaza Strip, Israel stands at a crossroads and must formulate a relevant strategy regarding the future of the Strip. It faces a rather grim range of alternatives, all problematic in their implications and feasibility: encouraging “voluntary emigration”—an option whose strategic consequences have not been thoroughly examined in Israel and whose feasibility is low; occupying the Strip and imposing prolonged military rule—while this may severely weaken Hamas, it does not guarantee its...

Although the concept of conflict management led to the events of October 7, Israel is still entrenched in the approach of “indefinite conflict management.” Its conduct results in control over all dimensions and aspects of the Palestinian population in the West Bank (and possibly also in the Gaza Strip), which in practice would constitute a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the sea. Since the “two states for two peoples” framework, which includes a fully sovereign Palestinian state, is not feasible in the...

With the rise of an Islamist regime in Syria, a new reality has emerged that presents both risks and opportunities for Israel. Although Iran has been pushed out of Syria, it is expected to attempt to renew its presence there. Meanwhile, Turkey is playing a central role in Syria, a development that could lead to political and military friction with Israel—potentially escalating in an extreme scenario to direct military confrontation. At the same time, Turkey is likely the only actor with both the motivation and capability to deploy...

Contemporary Israel, probably more than ever before, requires a widely accepted national security doctrine—grounded in the values of Israel’s Declaration of Independence. Its overarching objectives are to ensure Israel’s security, prosperity, and Jewish-democratic character, with a firm Jewish majority and defensible, recognized borders

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could bring significant global changes, intensifying competition among the great powers—the United States, China, and Russia. Trump’s “America First” policy, which defined his first term in office, is expected to continue shaping his administration’s foreign policy. The administration’s guiding principle will be “ending wars, not starting them,” emphasizing agreements that advance American interests from a position of strength. This approach will primarily rely on political and economic...

The developments in Syria present Israel with both new challenges and potential opportunities. The uncertainty surrounding the policy of the new regime under Ahmed al-Sharaa and the evolving situation on the ground necessitate that Israel maintain a high level of military readiness to cope with emerging threats, the unclear intentions of key actors—including Turkey—and the potential re-establishment of the Iran–Hezbollah axis within Syria. At the same time, al-Sharaa’s restrained statements regarding Israel, the presence of moderate...

The dramatic events unfolding in Syria create a window of opportunity for Israel to enhance its security situation by intensifying the damage to Iran and its Axis of Resistance and aiming to fragment the continuity of the axis and make any future recovery difficult. From Israel’s perspective, unlike in previous cases, the events in Syria are supported by a series of favorable developments that have emerged over the past year. These developments provide Israel with the opportunity to leverage its achievements against the Axis of...

A series of operational successes provides Israel with the ideal opportunity to closely consider its exit strategy. Now, with these achievements accumulating, it is the right time to examine the question of ending the military campaign and securing its diplomatic benefits to improve Israel’s national security in every respect. In recent weeks, Israel has achieved a series of successes, particularly on the northern front and in the Gaza Strip. Some of these achievements can be attributed to chance, such as the elimination of Hamas...

Recently, the IDF began a ground operation in southern Lebanon, following the addition of “safely returning northern residents to their homes” to Israel’s war objectives. In this document we analyze potential achievements of a land manoeuvre in Lebanon and alternatives implementation. Consequently, we present a preferred course of action: clearing areas controlling the border line to create a security space for Israeli settlements south of it, preventing direct fire of any kind and thwarting the possibility of a...

The Institute for National Security Studies: It is necessary and possible to draft tens of thousands of Ultra-Orthodox already this year.

The bill to amend the conscription law in its current form is unfathomable, especially after October 7. Its legislation endangers the model of the people’s army, is inconsistent with the needs of the army, and exacerbates the inequality. This legislation is a danger to the national security of the State of Israel. There are important fundamental principles that should be integrated into any legislation. The law should be adapted to Israel’s security needs, it should preserve the people’s army model and be based on a wide scope of...