The upcoming elections in Israel, to be held on October 27, are not perceived in Egypt and Jordan as a purely internal Israeli affair. Rather, they are depicted in mainstream media in both countries as a strategic junction that could impact their direct interests, the future of the Palestinian issue, and the broader regional landscape. At the same time, an analysis of the public discourse in both countries reveals an ambivalence. On the one hand, many commentators make no secret of their hope that Israel’s current government...
Operation Roaring Lion—the war with Iran—is being waged during a low point in Israel–Jordan relations and sharpens the importance of peace as a strategic asset for both countries. Despite the rupture between the leaders of the two countries and the tension in the Palestinian arena, military coordination between the IDF and the Jordanian Armed Forces has continued. The war has led Jordan to adopt a declared policy of “positive neutrality,” namely, intercepting Iranian missiles in its sovereign airspace on their way to Israel and...
The three wealthiest Gulf monarchies—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—have ceased providing unconditional economic aid to Egypt and Jordan. Instead, they have transitioned to massive acquisitions of strategic assets in both countries, including land and essential infrastructure. This new policy grants the Gulf states direct influence over the Egyptian and Jordanian economies and thus leverage over the domestic and foreign policies of both countries. While this may offer certain advantages to Israel, such as greater...
During Israel’s ongoing war, the Arab peace states—especially Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates—have expressed deep mistrust, frustration, and even bewilderment over Israel’s conduct. These sentiments have recently intensified and appear to have reached a peak. While these countries acknowledge Israel’s military achievements and recognize that they could have a positive impact on the Middle East, they are also profoundly disturbed by what they perceive as Israel’s rigid, one-dimensional militaristic approach—namely, the...
In his second term, US President Donald Trump is unlikely to pursue the same Middle East policy as in his first. This shift stems from significant regional changes, including the decline of Iran’s power and its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” the renewed centrality of the Palestinian issue, and the growing strategic importance of the Gulf states in the great-power competition. President Trump’s generally favorable stance toward several regimes in the region, as well as his strong personal ties with key leaders, could generate...
The overthrow of the regime in Syria presents Jordan with an array of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the Hashemite Kingdom is worried about instability on its northern border, the possibility that Iranian influence will be replaced by a Turkish one, and the export of Islamist revolutionary fervor from Syria to Jordan. On the other hand, it recognizes an opportunity to block the drug and arms smuggling routes between Syria and Jordan, return the Syrian refugees in Jordan to their homeland, and promote economic cooperation...
Thirty years after the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and Jordan, water cooperation remains a central pillar of the relationship between the two countries. Jordan’s water crisis presents challenges for the kingdom, potentially leading to internal social and political unrest, mass migration, and even destabilization of regional order. These scenarios also have implications for Israel, which sees the stability of Jordan and the region as an important security anchor. Against this backdrop, the two countries should view...
Arab states can help advance a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, an agreement for the release of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas, and an end to the war by adopting a resolute approach to Hamas. This approach, involving increased pressure, isolation, and delegitimization, should aim to undermine Hamas’s image and standing among the Arab public opinion. The proposed measures include media campaigns and public denunciations, legal sanctions, limitations on activity, and the promotion of an alternative religious discourse. These...
Since October 7, Jordan has been facing two escalating challenges: First, Iran and its affiliated regional militias are challenging Jordanian sovereignty, as they aim to turn the kingdom’s airspace and territory into a battleground for smuggling weapons and launching attacks against Israel. Second, Islamist forces, both domestic and foreign, are pressuring the kingdom to cancel the peace treaty and normalization with Israel and align with Hamas. The palace’s ability to face both challenges is likely to shape relations between Israel...
Jordan’s stability is being undermined by mass demonstrations outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, organized by the National Forum for Supporting the Resistance and spearheaded by the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Iranian subversion, and the use of the Hashemite Kingdom for smuggling weapons and money to terrorist organizations in the West Bank are also contributing to the instability. Concern that this destabilizing of Jordan could lead to the deployment of Iran and its proxies along the Israel–Jordan border should spur Israel to...
Current Situation – States’ respective considerations on willingness to advance relations with Israel · Core components determine ability to progress | Current Israeli Strategy – Strengthen normalized relations and leverage the Abraham Accords toward additional relationships · Cultivate quiet relations with additional countries | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Conception that “what was is necessarily what will be” – positive linearity · Incomplete acknowledgment that the Palestinian issue impacts relations ·...
