Publications

In his second term, US President Donald Trump is unlikely to pursue the same Middle East policy as in his first. This shift stems from significant regional changes, including the decline of Iran’s power and its so-called “Axis of Resistance,” the renewed centrality of the Palestinian issue, and the growing strategic importance of the Gulf states in the great-power competition. President Trump’s generally favorable stance toward several regimes in the region, as well as his strong personal ties with key leaders, could generate...

The overthrow of the regime in Syria presents Jordan with an array of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the Hashemite Kingdom is worried about instability on its northern border, the possibility that Iranian influence will be replaced by a Turkish one, and the export of Islamist revolutionary fervor from Syria to Jordan. On the other hand, it recognizes an opportunity to block the drug and arms smuggling routes between Syria and Jordan, return the Syrian refugees in Jordan to their homeland, and promote economic cooperation...

Thirty years after the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and Jordan, water cooperation remains a central pillar of the relationship between the two countries. Jordan’s water crisis presents challenges for the kingdom, potentially leading to internal social and political unrest, mass migration, and even destabilization of regional order. These scenarios also have implications for Israel, which sees the stability of Jordan and the region as an important security anchor. Against this backdrop, the two countries should view...

Arab states can help advance a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, an agreement for the release of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas, and an end to the war by adopting a resolute approach to Hamas. This approach, involving increased pressure, isolation, and delegitimization, should aim to undermine Hamas’s image and standing among the Arab public opinion. The proposed measures include media campaigns and public denunciations, legal sanctions, limitations on activity, and the promotion of an alternative religious discourse. These...

Since October 7, Jordan has been facing two escalating challenges: First, Iran and its affiliated regional militias are challenging Jordanian sovereignty, as they aim to turn the kingdom’s airspace and territory into a battleground for smuggling weapons and launching attacks against Israel. Second, Islamist forces, both domestic and foreign, are pressuring the kingdom to cancel the peace treaty and normalization with Israel and align with Hamas. The palace’s ability to face both challenges is likely to shape relations between Israel...

Jordan’s stability is being undermined by mass demonstrations outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, organized by the National Forum for Supporting the Resistance and spearheaded by the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Iranian subversion, and the use of the Hashemite Kingdom for smuggling weapons and money to terrorist organizations in the West Bank are also contributing to the instability. Concern that this destabilizing of Jordan could lead to the deployment of Iran and its proxies along the Israel–Jordan border should spur Israel to...

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

Current Situation – States’ respective considerations on willingness to advance relations with Israel ·  Core components determine ability to progress | Current Israeli Strategy – Strengthen normalized relations and leverage the Abraham Accords toward additional relationships · Cultivate quiet relations with additional countries | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Conception that “what was is necessarily what will be” – positive linearity · Incomplete acknowledgment that the Palestinian issue impacts relations ·...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

Recent developments in Jordan and its immediate neighborhood have raised questions about the stability of the regime in the kingdom, and with that, have aroused concern in Israel. The questions stem from the possible ramifications of the economic crisis in Jordan, especially among the tribal Bedouin population, which is the traditional support base of the monarchy, and from the response to the reforms that the king intends to implement in the parliamentary electoral system; from the direct challenges by various Jordanians toward the...