The war between the United States and Iran presented China with a complex strategic challenge: maintaining its relations with Iran, the Gulf states, and the United States all at once, while safeguarding its economic and energy interests in the region. Despite possessing the economic tools to exert significant influence, Beijing chose to limit its response primarily to the diplomatic arena and refrained from using the leverage at its disposal. This article argues that Beijing’s conduct should not be viewed as passivity, but...
The confrontation between the United States and Iran surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has entered a more dangerous phase than before. The American move, which initially focused on targeting maritime and military infrastructure in the area of Bandar Abbas and applying concentrated pressure on Tehran, has expanded following the Iranian response against vessels, U.S. military bases, and the Gulf states. Washington seeks to combine cumulative military pressure with maintaining an open diplomatic channel; to deny Iran the ability to turn...
This interactive map documents strikes by Iran and its proxies across the region, alongside U.S. strikes, from April 2026 onward. It is continuously updated and draws on open-source intelligence (OSINT), visual documentation, official statements, and media reporting. The project aims to provide an accessible, data-driven, and current picture of the conflict as it develops.
The war in Iran and the subsequent worsening economic crisis have accelerated the ongoing erosion of the country’s middle class, which has been particularly hard hit by high inflation, the impact of sanctions, declining purchasing power, and a growing employment crisis. In recent months, Iranian scholars and commentators have warned of the downward mobility of large segments of the middle class into lower socioeconomic strata and of their increasing dependence on government assistance, undermining their ability to sustain the...
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran marks the end of the military campaign, but not the end of the challenge posed by the Iranian threat. The document is not a new nuclear agreement, but rather an interim framework designed to halt the fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the naval blockade, and enable negotiations on a final agreement within 60 days. Trump will be able to present the memorandum as an achievement: ending the war, stabilizing energy markets, and securing an Iranian commitment not...
The Israeli strike in Beirut following Hezbollah’s rocket fire on northern Israel, and the subsequent round of exchanges between Israel and Iran, illustrate both the complexity of the American effort to curb escalation and Israel’s challenge of separating the Lebanese arena from Iran. The Trump administration sought to advance a renewed agreement between Israel and Lebanon, strengthen the Lebanese government, restrict Hezbollah’s freedom of action, and preserve maneuver space regarding Tehran. However, it failed to prevent an...
As the war between Israel and Hezbollah drags on, mounting signs suggest that its severe impact on Lebanon’s Shiite population is beginning to erode support for the organization. This is particularly due to the heavy price being paid by the Shiite population — and Lebanon as a whole — as a result of Hezbollah’s war in service of Iranian interests. While Hezbollah still enjoys broad support within the Shiite sector, cracks in that support weigh heavily on the organization as it fights a war of survival under intense military,...
Since the outbreak of Operation “Roaring Lion,” and even more so against the backdrop of the escalation in Lebanon in recent weeks, the perception emphasizing Hezbollah’s importance as a strategic component of Iran’s security doctrine has grown stronger in Tehran. Hezbollah’s decision to join the campaign alongside Iran was perceived in Tehran as an expression of its commitment to the pro-Iranian axis in the region and of the continued relevance of Iran’s proxy strategy—which appeared to be eroding following the...
The Data Analytics Center at the Institute for National Security Studies presents a real-time situation report regarding the military campaign on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts.
The report includes a dedicated dashboard featuring selected data, accompanied by an interactive map depicting the situation on the ground.
The data is updated continuously and as accurately as possible, based on intelligence assessments, open-source information, and media reports.
The war with Iran has highlighted Pakistan’s role as an actor with growing potential for influence in the Middle East. Pakistan has sought to position itself both as a mediator between Iran and the United States and as a security guarantor for Saudi Arabia, while maintaining a delicate balance between preserving its strategic ties with Riyadh and the need to avoid a deterioration in relations with Tehran. From the perspective of some Gulf states, Pakistan has an important role to play in the regional security architecture that...
This dashboard report presents ten charts documenting the global economic effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. From surging oil, gas, and jet fuel prices, to disruptions in aluminum and fertilizer supply chains, and mounting pressure on the global food price index, the charts together point to a single vulnerability in the global economy that evolved into a catalyst for a multidimensional crisis. The charts will be updated weekly and will continue tracking effects likely to persist well after the fighting subsides, as...
“Operation Roaring Lion,” the war against Iran and its proxies, has not yet reached its conclusion. Although the final outcome remains unclear and the current situation may soon shift, the campaign’s distinctive characteristics allow for an interim assessment. This is the most extensive war fought in the Middle East since the Second Gulf War, and the first in which Israel is fighting as an active partner in a coalition with the United States. While its global implications have yet to fully emerge, it is already clear that...
