The future of the Trump Plan regarding the “day after” in the Gaza Strip is ambiguous and fragile. The first phase of the plan has been implemented only partially (the return of all living hostages and some of the deceased, and the implementation of IDF deployment arrangements within an expanded security perimeter—the Yellow Line), while Hamas retains control in the heart of the cities, acts to suppress any expression of opposition to its rule, and violates the agreement by dragging its feet on releasing the remaining deceased...
As the war in the Gaza Strip continues, Israel’s international legitimacy is eroding, its global standing is deteriorating, the IDF is being worn down, and divisions within Israeli society are widening. Escaping this deadlock requires a paradigmatic shift that moves beyond the narrow thinking of only two options (as defined by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu): either a full occupation of the Strip or capitulation to Hamas, which would remain in power, in exchange for the release of the hostages. However, there is another option—one...
In the war in the Gaza Strip, Israel faces a choice between three strategic alternatives: continuing to pursue a ceasefire agreement to secure the release of some of the hostages while adhering to the goal of dismantling and disarming Hamas; agreeing to end the war under Hamas’s terms in exchange for the release of all the hostages; or occupying the Strip and imposing a temporary military administration, with the hope that this will also result in the release of the hostages. Each of these options involves significant costs alongside...
An empirical examination and historical review of appointments to key positions in the IDF’s General Staff over the past five decades reveal a marked tendency toward similarity bias, particularly evident in the frequent promotion of individuals from the Paratroopers and Sayeret Matkal units. This bias reflects a form of “human duplication,” stemming from a preference to appoint people who resemble oneself. As similar individuals tend to think alike, it reduces critical, challenging, and skeptical thinking, thereby affecting the...
An analysis of the official statement on the Arab initiative for Gaza’s reconstruction reveals a highly problematic declaration. Published in Arabic, the statement glorifies the resilience of the Palestinian people against Israeli aggression and includes harsh rhetoric condemning Israel’s alleged “crimes.” This language implicitly elevates and legitimizes Hamas, despite the statement’s token denunciation of terrorism—without explicitly condemning Hamas, Hezbollah, or Palestinian militants in the West Bank. For Israel, the lessons of...
A comparative analysis of four polls, conducted with the requisite caution due to methodological limitations, reveals fundamental differences in the findings in relation to similar questions asked across the different polls. This analysis especially highlights the dialectic expressed in the criticism of Hamas and the dissatisfaction with its functioning; the decline in the popularity of Yahya Sinwar (before he was killed) and Hamas alongside increased support for Hamas compared to Fatah; and the support for continuing the armed...
The risk of the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, along with the need for significant changes within it—preconditions for its rehabilitation, its return to the Gaza Strip, and the creation of conditions for a political settlement based on the principle of two states—in order to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia and end the war in Gaza—require a different approach than what has been accepted in the past. In part, the establishment of two or three Palestinian cities (such as Rawabi, north of Ramallah), and the subsequent...
Against the backdrop of efforts by the American administration and the Palestinian Authority (PA)—with the backing of part of the Israeli defense establishment—to reinstate the PA as the governing body in the Gaza Strip, we should remember the cyclical dynamic between Hamas and Fatah—rivalry, reconciliation efforts, and renewed crisis. Given the addition of fierce disagreements over the significance of the war between Israel and Hamas, it is highly unlikely that the PA will be able to effectively implement any mandate it receives for...
The month of Ramadan—holy to Muslims across the world, including the Palestinians —is due to start on March 10 or 11. Ramadan has its own character and unique dynamics that could create an energy that is today missing and could cause the Palestinians to escalate the violence. Due to the sensitivity of Ramadan and the potential violence it could bring, it is important for Israel to consider an extraordinary move, which would turn the table and shift the responsibility onto Hamas—by making an offer that includes an end to the fighting...
As part of the preparations for “the day after” the war in the Gaza Strip, the United States aims to formulate a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and to involve Saudi Arabia in the Palestinian arena, including the Gaza Strip. Against this backdrop, and considering the time that has elapsed since the Arab Peace Initiative was issued as well as the increasing significance of the Palestinian issue in the Arab region, there is a need for a renewed and updated Arab peace initiative. A new initiative would bridge...
On January 21, 2024, Hamas published a document in English bearing the title “Our Narrative—Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.” The document is a narrative replete with false or partially true images and figures, devoid of historical context and references to religious sources or rulings, and fails to mention Hamas’s allegiance to the Muslim Brotherhood. The document also does not address how Hamas perceives itself as leading not only the armed struggle of the Palestinian people against Israel but also the Islamic nation on its way to...
Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip monitor developments in Israel closely, while weighing and refining the organization’s suspension and attrition strategy. Their goal is to bring an end to the war while ensuring the survival of Hamas as both a military and governmental entity within the Gaza Strip; that to them would be the essence of victory. The more optimistic the Hamas leadership becomes, the less inclined it is to demonstrate flexibility or consider proposals that could potentially end the war, signaling the demise of their...
