The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Toward the end of his tenure as IDF ombudsman, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yitzhak Brick charged that the ground forces were not ready for war. Countering this claim, an IDF-appointed committee contended that the ground forces were ready and prepared for war, but highlighted a host of significant lapses that require correction, and recommended a sizeable budget increase to strengthen the ground forces. Apparently, therefore, Brick’s criticism prompted a constructive review process that was in the public interest. Questions about military...
In 2018, a record 4.1 million tourists visited Israel from all over the world. The figure is particularly impressive, given the security incidents in this period, the extensive coverage of security-related events by the foreign press and social media, and the BDS campaign. While global tourism between 2007 and 2018 increased 60 percent, tourism in Israel in the same period rose 100 percent. This figure reflects Israel’s strong international standing and indicates that for now, tourists regard the Israeli security situation as...
The Energy Ministers of Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority met in Cairo in mid-January 2019 to discuss the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, which will serve as the umbrella for cooperation and dialogue regarding the development of gas resources in the region. While the subject of energy is the basis for the forum, there are also broader geostrategic processes that led to its establishment, and they reflect the regional states’ shared perceptions regarding the importance of...
After a string of achievements in the Middle East and the start of an economic recovery following the removal of the sanctions, Iran was confronted in 2018 with growing external and domestic challenges. These challenges undermine the strategic stability that was the basis for Iranian policy in recent years, particularly since the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) was achieved.
These challenges are evident in all the areas relevant to Iran’s strategic situation. In the internal arena, the ongoing...
Over the past year the global oil market has experienced significant activity, particularly in the wake of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and developments in the global economy. For the US administration, Saudi Arabia plays an important role in countering the expected shortage of Iranian oil in the market and in moderating global oil prices. However, the Kingdom requires higher prices to meet its needs, and is the de facto leader of OPEC, which strives to raise oil prices. The price of oil (WTI) in the beginning of...
The second round of United States sanctions on Iran began in early November 2018, with what President Donald Trump described as “the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed.” The current phase of sanctions is intended to upset the oil market, Iran’s primary source of revenue. Thus, the effectiveness of the sanctions will be measured largely by the scale of the revenues the Iranians collect from their oil. It also depends on the ability of the United States to bring the scale of Iranian oil exports to...
The results of the Six Day War substantially changed Israel’s strategic situation. Prior to the war, Israel was a small democracy with Western values. The Israeli economy was in a recession due to the ideological positions of its socialist leadership, which was slow to adapt a modern economy to the rapid growth in the private sector. The country identified as part of the Western world, and its hostile Arab neighbors had not accepted its existence as a Jewish state in the heart of the Arab-Muslim region. Israel was secular in...
Broad economic warfare encompasses a host of actions aimed at damaging or threatening to damage the economy of an enemy or rival, with the aim of pressuring or weakening it in order to achieve strategic aims. Broad economic warfare encompasses standard economic warfare (such as sanctions), kinetic warfare, and cyber warfare against an enemy’s economy.
The cyber era has changed the realm of broad economic warfare. From an offensive perspective, cyber capabilities make it possible to damage the enemy economy both during wartime and...
On September 27, 2018, Delek Drilling, part of the Israeli-American consortium that owns natural gas concessions in Israel’s exclusive economic zone, announced the purchase of part of the company that owns the pipeline for transporting natural gas from Egypt to Jordan and Israel. As part of the deal, Delek also acquired the exclusive right to operate the 90 km pipeline from el-Arish to Ashkelon. The deal is important for Israel, given that the other options to sell and transport natural gas are now less feasible. It adds...
The renewal of US sanctions against Iran in early August represents another blow to the Iranian economy, which has weakened steadily since the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018. The sale of gold and precious metals to Iran has been banned, as has the acquisition of dollars by the government of Iran and Iranian companies, and there are prohibitions in place on the sale of civilian aircraft to Iranian airline companies. These steps have reinforced the downfall of the Iranian currency and the...
S&P recently raised Israel’s credit rating to AA minus. This is a welcome development of much economic value and prestige, the result of a long process of economic improvement. From the perspective of national security, the high grade reflects Israel’s ability to grow in economic terms while simultaneously dealing with unusual security challenges. However, continuation of the fast economic growth trend in the long term requires tackling Israeli society’s fundamental problems and the country’s basic economic challenges: a low rate...
