The economies of the Middle East are divided into high-income economies – those of Israel and the Gulf states – and poor/developing economies, with some states – Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen – suffering deep economic and political crises. The wealthy economies responded to the COVID-19 crisis with vaccinations for the majority of their populations and fiscal expansions, and global price increases are expected to lead to a moderate increase in inflation in these economies. The developing economies, however, have had difficulty...
The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy,...
The United Arab Emirates, Israel’s central partner in the Gulf, sees Iran as the main threat to its national security. The challenge that Iran poses to the UAE includes the threats, either direct or by means of proxies, of a kinetic attack on strategic targets, the potential use of subversion and terror, and control over Emirati territory. The UAE has reacted by developing a range of defensive responses, while simultaneously seeking to maintain open economic and diplomatic ties with Iran as much as possible. The UAE’s current efforts...
The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The acute political crisis between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, joined by Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, is more bad news for the collapsing Lebanese state. Saudi Arabia initiated the crisis following a statement by the Lebanese Minister of Information, who is from the Hezbollah camp, opposing its war against the Houthis in Yemen, and Riyadh seems to have used this as an excuse to take action against Hezbollah and the new Lebanese government, which it controls. Saudi Arabia’s full disengagement from Lebanon, if the...
The four agreements and declarations achieved in 2020 between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, respectively, represent a breakthrough in the regional peace process, and perhaps even an opening for other Arab and Muslim countries to join the process of normalization with Israel. This paper assesses the importance of these agreements for Israeli national security in the broadest sense, and recommends a series of measures for enhancing the existing accords and extending normalization to other...
In recent years the threats facing Saudi Arabia have intensified, and they have seen significant changes. A noticeable increase in kinetic threats (scope and precision) and in cyber threats to strategic assets is evident, and in particular Riyadh faces a threat to the functional continuity of its oil facilities and freedom of navigation. These looming threats are ominous for the Saudi economy and damage the kingdom’s standing; should they intensify further, security could be undermined, and in extreme scenarios, national...
The Abraham Accords represent a substantial achievement for Israel. At the same time, the potential for improving both Israel’s strategic position and its response to the challenges it faces has not been fully realized. The shared regional threat from Iran was, and remains, the primary motive for the Abraham Accords. This drive, however, has lost momentum with the change in United States policy under the Biden administration. Inter alia, it seems that the US is far less willing to provide security and economic rewards to the...
At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...
Disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two countries regarded as allies cooperating in a number of theaters on various matters over the past decade, have escalated recently. The conflicting interests on oil output limits compound existing disputes involving considerations of prestige and status in the regional and international theaters. Additional elements undermine the image of a united regional front against Iran, and could have a negative impact on regional initiatives toward normalization with Israel....
Leading Arab states, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, have hesitated thus far to normalize their relations with the Assad regime, conditioning this step on Syria’s progress toward a political solution based on Security Council Resolution 2254. However, with President Biden’s entry into the White House and the accelerated negotiations between the US administration and Iran in the background, a change in the Saudi position on Syria seems possible, including based on reports of Riyadh’s contacts with Iran. Renewed relations with...
