China’s response to the war with Iran appears to be one of non-intervention. Although one might have expected Beijing to stand more firmly by its partner Tehran, China’s response thus far has been relatively restrained. This article offers several explanations for this, including China’s domestic priorities, its desire to avoid further friction with the United States, Beijing’s balancing policy among all actors in the Middle East, and uncertainty about the future of the Iranian regime. At the same time, China is looking ahead to the...
President Trump’s statements in recent days reflect an effort to convey two parallel messages: presenting the campaign against Iran as an advancing success while, at the same time, avoiding a clear definition of its end conditions. This situation illustrates the growing tension within the administration between those pushing to continue the campaign to maximize its military achievements and economic, political, and strategic constraints pushing to shorten it. From Israel’s perspective, this is an especially sensitive stage: The...
Turkey is deeply frustrated by the outbreak of the war in Iran, which Ankara perceives as the realization of some of its worst strategic scenarios, and it is working to end the fighting as quickly as possible. The war poses challenges to Turkey, ranging from missiles being launched into its territory to fears of a significant refugee wave and a renewed flare-up of the Kurdish issue emanating from Iran. Regionally, Ankara has accused Israel of pushing the United States into going to war and is concerned about the strengthening of...
The campaign against Iran has expanded to the economic front, centering on Tehran’s attempts to harm the global energy market in order to force the United States to end the fighting. Yet an analysis of market conditions reveals a surprising picture. Although the global economy is showing resilience and can absorb rising prices in the short term, the real point of vulnerability may lie elsewhere. America’s allies in the Gulf could be forced to halt oil and gas production if storage facilities fill up. Should that be the case, the main...
Contrary to conventional expectations, the Houthis are demonstrating a notable reluctance to intervene in Tehran’s defense. While it remains plausible that the trajectory of the conflict involving Iran and subsequent geopolitical developments in the Gulf could elevate their strategic impetus to engage in hostilities, analysis suggests that – even in such an eventuality – their actions will be highly calculated. Guided by their core strategic interests, it is posited that they would exercise operational restraint to...
Summary of the Results
A clear majority of the Israeli public (81%) supports the Israeli–US attack on Iran (Operation Roaring Lion). In addition, 63% believes the campaign should continue until the fall of the Iranian regime. Public trust in the security establishment remains high and has even strengthened, while there has been a slight increase in trust in the political leadership. Sixty-nine percent of the public assesses that the military campaign will significantly harm the Iranian regime; of these, 22% believes that the regime...
The US–Israeli military campaign against Iran presents President Trump with the challenge of achieving a rapid, easily marketable success without becoming mired in a prolonged war. The president has adopted an especially hawkish public stance and has called on the Iranian public to “seize the moment”; yet ambiguity remains regarding whether there is an organized plan for regime change and for the “day after” the war. Within the Trump administration, the tension is likely to sharpen between maintaining maximal military pressure—aimed...
This interactive map provides a strategic situational overview of the Middle East theater during the joint Israeli-American operation against Iran. It features Israeli and U.S. strikes across the region, Iranian strikes within Arab nations, U.S. force deployments, and Iranian military facilities and bases. Additionally, users can enable an optional layer displaying strikes from Operation Rising Lion for comparative analysis. The map is updated continuously with the highest possible precision, based on open-source intelligence (OSINT)...
