The upheavals in Jordan’s strategic environment have sparked a heated debate on the social media regarding the identity of the Hashemite kingdom and Jordan’s relations with Israel. The response to the killing in March 2014 of Raed Zeiter, a Jordanian-Palestinian judge, at the Allenby Bridge crossing by IDF soldiers presents an illustrative case study in this matter. Following the incident, three main trends were evident in the intensive discussions on the social media: 1. There are strong differences in approach between the various...
On Wednesday, April 23, 2014, representatives of Fatah and Hamas meeting in Gaza reached agreement on a long-sought reconciliation. That same evening, the Israeli government canceled a scheduled meeting of Palestinian and Israeli negotiators, and the following day, the government voted unanimously to suspend negotiations. The government argued that in his embrace of Hamas, Muhammad Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority and Chairman of the PLO and Fatah, had rejected peace. However, it is therefore not altogether clear why...
Recent weeks have seen a gradual erosion of the Egyptian-brokered November 2012 ceasefire that ended operation Pillar of Defense. While the first year following the ceasefire was characterized by a significant drop in violent exchanges between the parties, with 2014 the situation has been progressively less stable. Nonetheless, both Hamas and Israel need to provide mutual reassurance of their interest in returning to a situation of controlled conflict in the south, under which Hamas will “for the most part” keep the quiet and Israel...
The rocket barrage fired by Islamic Jihad from the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, March 12, 2014 served as a reminder that the achievements of Operation Pillar of Defense could easily disintegrate and that the volatile situation in Gaza could escalate very quickly. For its part, Hamas has attempted to navigate the tension between its jihadi agenda and the constraints and considerations pushing the movement toward a pragmatic policy. However, in their determination to fire rockets and launch attacks against Israeli targets, Islamic Jihad...
The military and political arenas are closely linked in Israel’s fight against terrorist and guerrilla organizations. Israel is a democratic country subject to legal and moral constraints and restraints, and therefore, when it initiates a military operation against such organizations, its justifications are important, as they will later affect its international legitimacy or lack thereof. This article discusses the Iron Dome system, which is designed to provide active protection for Israeli citizens. It attempts to answer...
In recent weeks, efforts by US Secretary of State Kerry to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian framework agreement have focused on an attempt to have the parties agree on security arrangements in the Jordan Valley. Secretary Kerry apparently presumes that Israel’s concerns about security issues are the main obstacle to progress, and that once Israel’s concerns are met, further progress on the political process toward an agreement will be possible. What is troubling about this attitude is its rather one-dimensional view of the security...
An impromptu comment by Secretary of State Kerry at the Munich Security Conference on February 1, 2014 regarding “an increasing de-legitimization campaign” against Israel and “talk of boycotts and other kinds of things” ignited a firestorm of criticism in Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response – “No pressure will cause me to concede the vital interests of the State of Israel, especially the security of Israel’s citizens” – was slightly more measured, but still begs two questions. One concerns the immediacy of the threat and the...
The effort by US Secretary of State Kerry to formulate a set of principles to enable Israel and the Palestinians to continue negotiations on a final status agreement even after the nine month period allotted to the negotiations ends in April 2014 presents both sides with a serious dilemma. On the one hand, each of them will be forced to bite the bullet, which will create political difficulties for them with their own political base of support and the public. On the other hand, whoever is perceived as responsible for the failure of...
Thepast week has seen significant escalation from the Gaza area, with thelaunching of rockets from the Gaza Strip and Israeli responses to theselaunchings. There is concern that the dynamic of escalation will inevitablylead to a decision by Israel to initiate another large scale operation in theGaza Strip along the lines of Operation Pillar of Defense and perhaps evenOperation Cast Lead. Since it is likely that the current escalation is not dueto a deliberate policy by Hamas, rather the result of its loss of control in...
Focus in the analytical essays compiled here is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and opportunities that await Israel in 2014. In 2013 the Middle East continued to grapplewith several risk-laden issues and processes that began in previous years, includingthe socio-political unrest in many Arab states and the increased power ofradical Islamic elements in lawless areas near Israel’s borders; the ongoingcivil war in Syria; the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue; and the wide gaps betweenIsrael and the...
