The current reality in Syria is gradually prompting a change in US policy, out of an understanding that the lines between the many Sunni actors operating in the war-torn state are vague and elusive. There may now be a turning point in the Obama administration’s assessment of the situation, as it realizes that there are no truly moderate forces in Syria that can serve as an alternative to the Assad regime, and that at the end of the day, all of the Sunni groups, whether Salafist groups or others, will cooperate with al-Qaeda or...
On April 25, 1982, the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) began its mission in the Sinai Peninsula to implement the supervisory functions stipulated in the security annex of the Peace Treaty between Israel and Egypt. In the decades since, and especially over the past five years, the operating environment of the MFO has transformed dramatically, and contributing countries and units have changed. Nonetheless, the Multinational Force continues to fill a critical role in implementing the security regime agreed upon by the leaders of...
It is over one year since the nuclear agreement between the world powers and Iran was signed, and an analysis of Iran’s behavior over the past year strengthens the INSS assessments that in the short term the agreement poses only moderate risks. It is important to note what did not happen over the past year, particularly the extreme scenarios that did not materialize, despite the dire forecasts sounded during the political debate regarding the agreement. During the second decade of the JCPOA, however, Iran will be presented with an...
On June 3, 2016, after several months of intensive diplomatic activity, France held an international summit designed to lay the groundwork for restarting the Israeli-Palestinian political process by means of an international conference to take place before the end of the year. The summit reflects a growing sense of frustration in the international community and the Middle East with the long-lasting political deadlock. It likewise bespeaks the growing sense that the status quo furthers instability and endangers the potential viability...
The start of the operation to liberate al-Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State in Syria – including battles over the city’s important supply route through the Manbij region in Syria’s northwest – pushes Turkey close to the point at which it will be compelled to make a strategic decision. This area is the last Islamic State-controlled area bordering Turkey, and it is likely that in the end, the Kurds will be left in control. Turkey’s next moves will have a significant impact on the future of the federal region of...
The Middle East is being reshaped by an extended process that began over five years ago, and its end-point is currently impossible to predict. Still, it can be assumed that the parties involved with the conflicts in the region in general, and in Syria in particular, seek resolutions through an attempt to reshape the power relations between them and the state structures in the area. Against this background, Israel has a fundamental interest in ensuring that Iran and Hezbollah will not be the forces that are strengthened within the...
An escalating conflict between Iran and the United States concerning Iranian allegations that the United States is not fulfilling its commitments under the nuclear agreement has made headlines in recent weeks. Tehran has accused the US administration of fomenting an anti-Iran atmosphere, which leads to reluctance on the part of banks and international companies to conduct business with Iran. This issue became ready political material in Iran for the opponents of the nuclear agreement and the opponents of President Rouhani, and the...
The debate over the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Israel about the next decade of US defense aid to Israel has hit an impasse. However, the gap between Israel and the United States on the defense aid package is not limited to the final sum on the bottom line. Rather, the Obama administration and the Israeli government are deeply divided by different strategic views of the threats in the Middle East and the extent to which Israel is a US asset. In 2015, Israel opted not to accept the US proposals...
During Saudi King Salman’s 5-day visit to Cairo, which began on April 7, 2016, Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed a series of agreements on a range of topics, reflecting stronger bilateral coordination and involving a total sum of some $25 billion. For Israel, the most significant agreement authorized the transfer of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir in the Straits of Tiran from Egypt to Saudi Arabia. This was perceived in Egypt and throughout the Arab world as payment for the massive aid Egypt has already received and expects to...
While violations of the ceasefire by Assad’s forces, the Syrian army’s reconquest of Palmyra, and the possible plans to retake a-Raqqa, the Syrian capital of the Islamic State, place the rebels in an inferior position, the rebels, with Western support, can try to turn the situation around. The United States now has the opportunity to form an opposition force, prepare it, and help it seize a-Raqqa before it is attacked by the pro-Assad coalition (the Syrian army, Russian air support, and Hezbollah and Iranian troops). Instead of...
The United States and Israel have conflicting interests on how to handle the region’s current challenges, and these differences are eroding the special relationship that has historically prevailed between the two countries. This essay proposes a joint regional strategy for the two countries resting on several anchors, including: mutual consideration by Israel and the United States of each other’s regional interests; fortification of the existing peace agreements between Israel and its neighbors – which are also a basis for promoting...
On March 14, 2016, Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of the majority of Russian military units from Syria, after, he claimed, the Russian force had achieved the goals set for it when it entered Syria five and a half months earlier. Yet whatever the reasons for Russia’s surprising move, it is apparent that Russia has announced a limitation on its participation in the fighting in Syria, not the conclusion of its military involvement. For its part, Israel has thus far refrained from choosing a side and intervening directly in the...
