In recent weeks there have been reports of contacts between the United States and Iran to formulate a framework of understandings, whereby Tehran will agree to certain restrictions on its nuclear program and release Americans detained in Iran. In exchange, some of the sanctions will be eased, including the release of Iranian funds frozen overseas. If these understandings materialize, Iran will enjoy a considerable financial benefit and will also be able to retain the fissile material it has accumulated. For the United States, these...
Egypt and Iran have recently been discussing the possibility of normalizing diplomatic relations between them for the first time since 1979. This historic move may serve various interests of both countries, yet there are still some reservations, especially on the part of Cairo. Egypt is currently reviewing the nature of the change in Iran’s conduct following its normalization with Saudi Arabia in April 2023, and has been attentive to the views of the Gulf states and the Unites States regarding possible moves moves. Normalization...
Russian dependence on Iran has deepened over the past few months, reflected in a variety of developments in security, foreign policy, and economic realms, in which Moscow increased its support for Iranian interests. Tightened relations, and especially Iranian assistance to Russia in the framework of Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine, indicate that the cooperation between the two countries is not just tactical; rather, it reflects a strategic decision by both sides. This development not only directly impacts Iranian force buildup and...
The recent visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Syria marked a significant achievement for Iran, as it was seen partly as a response to the normalization process between Israel and several Arab countries. The visit was presented by both countries as a demonstration of unity amidst a changing regional reality and a victory for the so-called axis of resistance. It took place against the backdrop of the improving relations between Iran and Syria and several Arab states, ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil, and...
Iran is currently focusing on two conflicting regional processes. On the one hand, it is gradually improving its relations with Arab countries, with special emphasis on the Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, there is a sharpening conflict between the so-called axis of resistance, backed by Iran, and Israel. While it is clear that the initiative for the most recent round of escalation on Israel’s northern and southern borders was not directly linked to Iran, but rather to developments on the Palestinian front,...
Iran-China relations have seen several twists and turns over the past few months, from unusual Chinese statements against Iran during President Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and diplomatic tension between the countries, followed by a precedent-setting visit by Iranian President Raisi to China and the signing of continuing economic agreements, to Chinese mediation in formulating the agreement to renew Iranian-Saudi relations. China-Iran relations are stable and based on strong foundations of common opposition to US hegemony in general...
In a surprising announcement, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a resumption of relations (which were severed in 2016) and a return of ambassadors, which will take place in two months at the latest. The announcement was surprising both in its timing and in the identity of the mediator – China. The move reflects Beijing’s increased involvement in the Gulf and strengthens its position vis-à-vis the United States in the region. While the US administration welcomes the decline in tensions in the Gulf and seeks to continue efforts to...
Economic and political isolation has pushed Russia and Iran to strengthen the cooperation between them. The closer relationship between these countries has both military and economic dimensions and is reflected in their new level of cooperation in the war in Syria, which reached new heights in recent months with Iran’s decision to support Russia in its war in Ukraine. Iran has sold Russia many hundreds of drones – reflecting cooperation of the highest order – and Russia’s use of these weapons have already caused enormous damage to...
Over the past two years, about 13 terrorist attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) against Israeli and Jewish targets were publicly revealed and foiled on four continents. In addition, attempts to attack former senior officials in the US administration and Iranian opposition targets in New York and London were thwarted. These events point to Iran’s focused activity in the use of terrorism in the international arena without being deterred by the results of this activity. Prominent in these events is the use of...
While the international system, led by the United States, is preoccupied with the tension with China and the war in Ukraine, Iran has taken escalation measures in its nuclear program, is aiding Russia by selling drones to attack critical infrastructure in Ukraine, and continues to suppress and even kill people protesting against the regime. Under these circumstances, the chances of continuing the dialogue with the Iranian regime and consequently also of returning to the nuclear agreement are very slim, even if the sides are not in a...
After a year of political upheaval marked by internal conflict among the Shiites in Iraq, the success of the pro-Iranian Shiite camp in forming a government without the camp’s main rival, Muqtada Sadr, is a source of satisfaction to pro-Iranian parties and militias in Iraq, as well as the Iranian regime. However, just as the road to the formation of the government was riddled with hurdles and political and economic problems that have not yet been resolved, the reality facing the new government is challenging, and has the potential...
The fighting in Ukraine presents an opportunity for many countries, including Israel, to draw military-related lessons. Inter alia, the Russian attack in October 2022 using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones should be an important lesson for the IDF and decision makers in Israel. Over the past decade, drones, including various kinds of attack drones, have turned from exclusive weapons in the hands of very few countries to widespread weapons that are also in the hands of failed and rogue states and non-state organizations. In view of...
