For many of the Sunni regimes in the Middle East, the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency is a positive development, if only because it marks the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. Obama’s policy was seen as damaging and, in certain cases, treacherous towards those considered traditional American allies. The Gulf states in particular are encouraged by the more assertive tone towards Iran sounded by Trump and Defense Secretary James Mattis, who see Iran as the main source of instability in the region. However, Trump’s...
Without any formal ceremonies and far below the media’s radar, Egypt and Hamas have reached a series of security, political, and economic understandings in early 2017 aimed at establishing a basis for better relations between them. A Hamas delegation, headed by Vice-President of the Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh and members of the Political Bureau Mousa Abu Marzook and Rawhi Mushtaha visited Cairo for several days in late January, during which the delegation met with Egyptian security personnel, led by Khaled Fawzy, the director...
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) recently held its annual conference, which was attended by statesmen, military commanders, media figures, and political and security experts from Israel and abroad. As true of any conference of this type, many divergent opinions were expressed on a range of topics. They sketched a complex picture of Israel’s current situation and the challenges it can expect to face in 2017. Based on the mosaic of opinions presented at the conference, several distinct, unambiguous trends...
“There is no one to sign an agreement that would dramatically change reality,” Liberman said at at a conference hosted by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “What’s needed is strong leadership who enjoys support on the ground, but [Abbas] is not a legitimate leader,” he said. The defense minister further charged that Israel previously offered Abbas “half of Jerusalem, the evacuation of the West Bank and to re-open talks regarding the issue of refugees.” Liberman’s speech at the INSS conference came hours...
While the challenge regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict posed by US Secretary of State John Kerry on December 28, 2016 was directed primarily at Israel, it was also aimed at the Palestinians. Kerry called on the sides to accept six basic negotiations principles that were adopted by the Obama administration toward a permanent status agreement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There is little in the Israeli toolbox to thwart the possibility that Kerry’s principles may be accepted at the forthcoming peace conference in Paris...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
Resolution 2334, adopted on December 23, 2016, is a firm condemnation of the Israeli government’s policy on the settlements. A key focus of the resolution is the effort to halt Israeli measures perceived as liable to thwart the implementation of a two-state solution. This refers primarily to construction outside the settlement blocs and Israeli legislative initiatives perceived as intended to change the legal status of the area. • Resolution 2334 is a resolution under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter, and does not include sanctions to be...
This essay looks at the hostility and racist attitudes between much of Israel’s Jewish majority and Arab minority. Complementing their look at the incitement in the Arab sector toward the Jewish population is their discussion of the contradictory posture by Israel’s government toward Arab citizens. While steps have been taken to encourage the economic integration of the Arab sector, other measures rebuff the sector’s social and political integration. The authors emphasize the need for law enforcement and determination in the...
The article discusses various strands of Arab thought about the political process and normalization with Israel, and extends his focus beyond the issue of Israeli-Palestinian relations. The article notes the thus far unsuccessful attempts by Sunni Arab countries – specifically, Egypt and Saudi Arabia – to rejuvenate the political process, and the interests motivating these attempts. It concludes that although discrete cooperation between Israel and Arab countries is likely to develop even without a political breakthrough, substantial...
This article presents the conditions required as infrastructure for future arrangements between Israel and the Palestinians. Given the failure of the negotiations between the parties over the years, the weakness and split in the Palestinian political system, and the erosion in public support in Israel for negotiations as a way to a practical and acceptable settlement, measures aimed at multistage construction of the infrastructure and the critical conditions that will facilitate a variety of operative options in the future are...
The continued political stagnation and frozen relations between Israel and the Palestinians is discussed in the article. The authors examine the respective political realities in Israel and among the Palestinians, key factors feeding the deadlock, and the ensuing risks. The article’s foremost conclusion is that in order to preserve the relevance of the two-state solution, both in principle and in practice, measures should be taken, be they unilateral or coordinated, to halt the drift toward a one-state situation.
Security Council Resolution 2334 is a harsh finale to eight years of a frozen political process between Israel and the Palestinians. Extremely problematic for Israel and the peace process alike, the resolution is the outcome of a Palestinian strategy that prefers to contend with Israel in international institutions rather than through negotiations, and problematic policies and behavior by both the Obama administration and the Netanyahu government. The two leaders have awarded the Palestinians a diplomatic prize, and the Palestinians...
